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This report provides an update on the recent evolution and current status of the Asian-Australian monsoon system, along with predictions for the upcoming weeks. It discusses precipitation patterns over the past 90, 30, and 7 days, as well as forecasts from the NCEP/GFS model. The report highlights below-normal rainfall deficits in certain regions and the onset of the Australian monsoon.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 24, 2018 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, with the summer monsoon about to end soon, below normal rainfall deficits dominate southwestern and southern peninsular India, a small region in interior central eastern China, southeastern Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall deficits are noted across large parts of southern and western India, in large parts of eastern central and eastern China, Thailand, Burma, large parts of Indonesian islands and Malaysia. Elsewhere rainfall received was at normal to above normal levels.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal everywhere in the region, large deficits occurred over southern/peninsular and central India and most of Indonesia.. According to the India Met. Dept, since the first of June till today, All India Rainfall has been has been 9 % deficient.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, with the summer monsoon about to end soon, below normal rainfall deficits dominate southwestern and southern peninsular India, a small region in interior central eastern China, southeastern Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam. For the past 30 days, rainfall deficits are noted across large parts of southern and western India, in large parts of eastern central and eastern China, Thailand, Burma, large parts of Indonesian islands and Malaysia. Elsewhere rainfall received was at normal to above normal levels. In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal everywhere in the region, large deficits occurred over southern/peninsular and central India and most of Indonesia.. According to the India Met. Dept, since the first of June till today, All India Rainfall has been has been 9 % deficient. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts below normal rainfall over much of central India and southeast Asian countries around South China Sea region, and Indonesian islands. The summer monsoon over India officially comes close by end of September.
