Managing Risk in a “Climate of Change” Challenges and Opportunities for the Caribbean

1. Managing Risk in a “Climate of Change”Challenges and Opportunities for the Caribbean Presented to IFES Symposium on Climate Change Runaway Bay, Jamaica By Eleanor B. Jones Environmental Risk Management Specialist Environmental Solutions Caribbean October 21, 2008

3. Thinking Points • Caribbean states among most vulnerable in the world – climate change, natural hazards and external economic forces. • Vulnerability exacerbated by poor environmental management and environmental degradation as well as inadequate institutional systems • Lead to high productive risks and huge human suffering.

4. Thinking Points • Recent disaster experience has reinforced key lesson that the sustainability of economic and social development is closely interlinked with balancing environmental assets and liabilities • Development and poverty reduction conditioned to a large extent by the ability to reduce vulnerability.

6. Caribbean Vulnerabilities • Land, livelihood and settlement patterns • Fragile economies • Small size • Degradation of natural protective resources • Investment decisions • Attitude to extreme events • Attitude to maintenance, prevention and safety • Lack understanding of vulnerability • Systems of governance

7. WHY INCREASING LOSSES • Poverty – individual and state • Informal /unstructured development – no choice (sometimes implicitly encouraged)! • Structured developments – short-term economic interests.

8. …Increasing Losses • Review of hazard risk too late in the development process • Short-sighted,narrow view of human relationship with natural environment • Belief that technology can guard against extremes of nature • Overwhelmed – disregard risk

10. Imperative for the Caribbean • Reduce multi -hazard, multi-island, multi- year impacts on Business, Economy,Physical and Social Infrastructure, Environment • Build Resilience - Improve capacity to anticipate cope and recover • Reduce Poverty • Take charge - reduce vulnerability and risk

11. Hyogo Framework for Action2005-2015 • Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority • Know the Risks and Take Action • Build Understanding and Awareness • Reduce Underlying Risk Factors • Be Prepared and Ready to Act

12. ISDR – Caribbean Platform for Action • Regional expression of the Global Platform • Launched in 2007 • Intended to support regional initiatives • Foster intraregional collaboration • Strengthen risk management capability in vulnerable countries • Reaffirm integration of DM and RR into development policies • Promote international assistance • Promote transfer of technology

14. Caribbean Wake up Calls • 1988 – Gilbert • 1989 -Hugo • 1995 - 1 tropical storm and 2 hurricanes in a 3-week period. • 2004 - Ivan muti-island devastation • 2005 was the most active year on record in the Atlantic basin - 23 named storms - 13 hurricanes, 7 major - category 3+ • 2007 - two category 5 hurricanes making landfall – Hurricanes Dean and Felix • 2008 – Arthur, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, • Several Floods in addition

15. Defining Years… • 2004-2005 • Multi- hazard, multi-strike, multiple states • Loss of life • Economic devastation • Exposed heightened vulnerability • Power of media • International dialogue

17. Climate Risk Management Factors • Climate Change Indicators? • Where does the Caribbean Stack up? • What’s at Stake for the Region ? • Adaptation and Mitigation

18. Climate Change • Defining human development challenge of the 21st Century. • Failure to respond will stall and then reverse efforts to reduce poverty. • Poorest countries and most vulnerable citizens will suffer the earliest and most damaging setbacks, • They have contributed least to the problem. • No country—however wealthy or powerful—will be immune to the impact of global warming”(UN, HDR, 2007/2008)

19. Caribbean - IPCC report 2007 • Air temperature will increase by 1.8 - 4.0°C • Sea level will rise by 0.18 - 0.59 m • Increased CO2 will cause acidification of the oceans - pH of 0.14 - 0.35 units • More intense storms /hurricanes - rainfall, storm surge, wind speeds • Changes in precipitation patterns - lengths of wet and dry periods

20. Coastal Zone - Sea level rise Storm surge Beach erosion. Coral bleaching Acidification of ocean Flooding Freshwater Resources Floods Long Low Rainfall Periods Fisheries Mangroves Coral reefs Marine habitats Tourism assets Settlements Critical facilities Infrastructure Water availability – domestic, agriculture, industry, sanitation, and health, tourism Impacts of Climate Change Caribbean SIDS(IPCC, 2007, UNFCC, 2007)

21. The Threat • Water sector – stress, insecurity • Hydro-meteorological extremes - Disasters • Agricultural production and food security • Settlements and infrastructure • Ecosystems and biodiversity • Human health

22. The Water Sector • The water sector includes • Quantity and quality of the freshwater resource • Water supply and associated infrastructure. • Wastewater and associated infrastructure. • Users • Land use and watershed management key consideration for resilience of water resources to the threats posed by climate change • Settlement patterns and urbanisation • Demand-supply relationships • Systems of Governance

23. Freshwater Resources Availability m3 • Caribbean -2532/capita • Int’l limit – 1000 / capita • Water Scarce - <1000 • Antigua & Barbuda – 800m3 • Barbados– 301m3 • SKN – 621m3

24. Third World Water Forum 2003 Challenging trends to water sector include: • Rising sea level • Increasingly variable rainfall • Accelerated storm water runoff • Increasing demand for water • Increasing pollution of surface and groundwater sources

25. S.L. Rise and Beaches • For every 1 cm of sea level rise, the beach retreats inland 1 metre • This century the rate of sea level rise, and therefore beach erosion, predicted to increase 3 - 4 times the present rate

27. Guyana – SL risk • Elaborate system of reclamation ,drainage and irrigation >200yrs • Conservancies- canals – koker –seawall • Population concentrated on narrow coastal strip – below sea level • System under stress from sea level rise • Flood frequency increasing • Major flood disaster 2005 • Conservancy Adaptation project

29. Guyana floods – 2004-5 • 290,000 persons – 40% pop affected • 92,000 homes flooded • Georgetown worst affected. • Conservancy overtopped • Up to 3 weeks for receding • Disease problem – leptospirosis and other bacteria

33. The Case of Montserrat • Multi-hazard vulnerability • Hurricane Hugo – 1989 – significant losses in tourism – economic mainstay • 98% housing stock + 200% GDP • Volcanic eruption 1995-97 • 80% infrastructure + $2Bassets • Capital, airport, port, residential areas – buried in ash • 899% GDP • 50% pop evacuated

34. Food Security • High level of food insecurity • Agricultural systems in crisis • Degradation of natural resource base • Growing enviromental vulnerability • Migration • Uncontrolled urbanization

35. “It is no longer possible to prevent the climate change that will take place over the next two to three decades Still possible to protect our societies and economies from its impacts to some extent … By providing better information, improved planning and more climate-resilient crops and infrastructure. Adaptation will cost tens of billions of dollars a year in developing countries alone, and will put still further pressure on already scarce resources”.(Stern,2006) Stern …

36. Adaptation Capacity is Limited(UNFCCC 2005a). • Inadequate scientific and social data • Inadequate technical capacity • Weak human and institutional capacities • Limited financial resources • Missing from the Political Agenda

38. Framework for Adaptation /Disaster Management Strategies • Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) • Knowledge Management • Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change • Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre • Regional Public Education Strategy

39. Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Strategy 2007-2012 Goal Sustainable Development in the Caribbean Purpose To strengthen regional, national and community level capacity for the mitigation, management and coordinated response to natural and anthropogenic hazards, and the effects of climate variability and change Implemented through the Caribbean Disaster Emergency and Response Agency (CDERA)

40. Outcomes • Institutional support for CDM • Knowledge Management • Disaster Risk Management mainstreamed into key sectors of national economies (including tourism, health, education, infrastructure, planning and agriculture) • Enhanced community resilience developed in CDERA states/ territories to reduce risk and to respond to the adverse effects of climate variability and change and disasters

41. Knowledge Management Guiding Principles • Vulnerability and loss reduction must be underpinned by scientific data on the nature of the hazards, the nature and extent of physical, social and economic vulnerability, and the level of risk within each territory. • Dissemination of hazard and risk information must be timely, accurate and appropriate • Healthy natural resources and ecosystems are integral to natural hazard vulnerability reduction .

42. Disaster Risk Reduction Centre – UWI - Core Areas • Consolidated and enhanced teaching • Solution driven research • Policy and operational support services

43. Climate Change Focus • CPACC - build capacity in the Caribbean region for adaptation to climate change impacts, particularly sea level rise • ACCC, MACC – • CARICOM Climate Change Centre – focal point for climate change issues • Generates and manages information on the region’s response to managing and adapting to climate change • Official repository and clearing house for regional climate change data, • Provides climate change-related policy advice and guidelines to the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Member States through the CARICOM Secretariat

44. Costing Climate Change for the Caribbean • ‘Stern Type Report for the Caribbean • Project is being funded by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) • Being carried out by ECLAC.

45. In summary • Climate change impact on region with vulnerability imbued and created • Significant history of disasters - mostly climate-triggered • Poverty reduction major focus – highly indebted – 4 of most highly indebted in region. Linked to recurring disasters • Need to own the risk • Need to build the capacity for change

46. Thank you for Listening