The Economic Contribution of Tyson Foods to Pettis County

1. The Economic Contribution of Tyson Foods to Pettis County Tom Johnson Director Community Policy Analysis Center University of Missouri-Columbia

2. Baseline and Scenario Analysis • Baseline • 10 year projections assuming no major economic or policy changes • Scenario Analysis • Model of changes that may occur in the local economy • Examine the contributions of a particular industry to the local economy

3. Tyson Foods Scenario • What if Tyson Foods were not operating in Pettis County? What would our economy and community look like now and in the future? • “New” baseline projections are based on the scenario • Scenario projections are compared to the baseline projections

4. Information for Scenario Analysis • Tyson Foods survey • Total employment • Employee Payroll • Local purchases of inputs and business services

5. Economic Activity of a Local Firm • Direct Contributions • Employment and Employee Payroll • Indirect Effects • Local purchases of inputs and services by businesses in the local economy • Induced Effects • Employee spending on goods and services in the local economy

6. Scenario Analysis • Survey data analyzed through an input-output model to determine the indirect and induced effects • Backward Linkages • Goods and services purchased locally by Tyson foods • Examples: corn, office furnishings, accounting services

7. Scenario Analysis (cont’d) • Employee Spending • Local purchases of goods and services by Tyson Foods employees • Examples: groceries, fuel, child care services • Total Economic Contribution • Direct Employment and Payroll • Effects from backward linkages • Effects from employee spending

8. Employment Impacts • Direct Effects • 1800 employees of Tyson Foods • Effects of backwards linkages • 346.4 jobs • Effects of employee spending • 448.9 jobs • Total jobs supported by Tyson foods: • 2,595 jobs

9. Sector Effects of Backward Linkages • Agriculture 195.3 jobs • Mining 0 jobs • Construction 33.9 jobs • Manufacturing 6.6 jobs • Transportation & Public Utilities 23.7 jobs • Wholesale and Retail Trade 41.6 jobs • Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 12.3 jobs • Services 30.2 jobs • Government 1.6 jobs • Other 1.2 jobs

10. Sector Effects of Employee Spending • Agriculture 3.6 jobs • Mining 0 jobs • Construction 6.4 jobs • Manufacturing 9.8 jobs • Transportation & Public Utilities 15.8 jobs • Wholesale and Retail Trade 228.6 jobs • Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 31.2 jobs • Services 141.0 jobs • Government 5.0 jobs • Other 7.5 jobs

11. Show-Me Model Projections • Total jobs and income supported by Tyson Foods entered into the Show-Me Model to measure the impacts on the county’s economy • Results compared to original baseline projections 1998-2009

12. Scenario Results - 1998 Variable With Tyson Without Tyson % difference Population 37,069 32,382 -12.6% Labor Force 21,720 19,154 -11.8% Employment 24,709 22,114 -10.5% Unemployed 966 819 -15.2% Incommuters 4,201 3,759 -10.5% Outcommuters 2,719 2,285 -16.0%

13. Scenario Results - 1998 (cont’d) Variable With Tyson Without Tyson % difference Per Capita 21,052 22,443 +6.6%Income ($) Total Income 780,384 726,737 -6.9%($000) Assessed Prop. 337,887 295,505 -12.5%Value ($000) Retail Sales 414,765 356,190 -14.1%($000)

14. Scenario Results – 1998 (cont’d) Variable With Tyson Without Tyson % difference Property Tax 1,043,686 856,966 -17.9%Revenues Sales Tax 2,126 1,781 -16.2%Revenues($000) Total Revenues 5,816 4,687 -19.4% ($000) Total Expenditures 6,367 5,174 -18.7% ($000)

15. Summary & Key Findings • Tyson Foods directly employees 1,800 people • Purchases of goods and services by Tyson Foods generates an additional 346 jobs • Tyson Foods employee spending generates an additional 449 jobs

16. Summary & Key Findings (cont’d) • The presence of Tyson Foods generates a positive impact on population and labor force • Tyson Foods increases the total personal income in Pettis County by $53.6 million • Without Tyson Foods, retail sales and assessed property values would be lower. • Total revenues would be lower without Tyson Foods

17. Questions and Discussion

18. Thank you!