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CHER 2011 University of Iceland Reykjavík Iceland June 24 th -26 th

CHER 2011 University of Iceland Reykjavík Iceland June 24 th -26 th. Is there an invariance in educational expansion? Jón Torfi Jónasson jtj@hi.is http://www.hi.is/~jtj/ School of Education, University of Iceland.

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CHER 2011 University of Iceland Reykjavík Iceland June 24 th -26 th

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  1. CHER 2011University of Iceland Reykjavík Iceland June 24th-26th Is there an invariance in educational expansion? Jón Torfi Jónasson jtj@hi.ishttp://www.hi.is/~jtj/ School of Education, University of Iceland

  2. Schofer, E., & Meyer, J. W. (2005). The Worldwide Expansion of Higher Education in the Twentieth Century. American Sociological Review 70, 898-920. JónTorfiJónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  3. The preamble • Growth of education • Credentialism • The question of robustness, invariance • The dependent variables • Registration at a certain level of education • Degrees awarded • Students entering the education • Controlling for population changes; cohort corrections • The independent variables • Cultures • Gender • Age • Social groups Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  4. The story of the analysis • The growth of education in Iceland, both university entrance examination and university enrolment • Comparison with the other Nordic countries for upper secondary education Jón Torfi Jónasson. (2003). Does the state expand schooling? A a study based on five Nordic countries. Comparative Education Review, 47(2), 160-183. • Green, Thomas F., David P. Ericson, and Robert Seidman. Predicting the behavior of the Educational System: Syracuse University Press, 1980, showed that growth of high school education in the US is predicable; can be shown to be essentially exponential (JTJ). • An example of the Icelandic situation Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  5. Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  6. Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1980 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  7. Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1990 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  8. Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1995 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  9. Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-2000 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  10. Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-2010 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  11. Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970-2010 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  12. But what about “very different” systems? • Consider the HE systems in the US and Japan as examples. • First the US then Japan. • The method. 1. Consider the enrolment in HE in the growth period after the second war, which is often considered to show growth attached to optimism and belief in education. Many writers refer to the explosion in educational attendance during this period. 2. Consider what would be predicted on the basis of prior developments i.e. for the first part of the 20th century using the exponential fit. 3. Consider then what would be predicted for the rest of the 20th century. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  13. Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  14. Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  15. Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  16. Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  17. Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  18. Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  19. Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  20. Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  21. Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  22. Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  23. Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  24. Gender, degrees and age, first some data from Iceland • The period 1997-2009; ISCED 5, graduations from university • Based on data from Statistics Iceland • First age and gender Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

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  27. The Swedish case; Gender, degrees and age: • Three graphs • 1. The basics: The fit of the exponent, an example for 25 year old males and females graduating from 3-3,5 year degree courses • 2. The fit of the exponent, for ages between 24 and 39 males and females graduating from 3-3,5 year degree courses • 3. The same as previous but now with the fit of the exponents for males and females graduating from 3-3,5 year degree courses and 4-4,5 degree courses Based on data graciously provided by Statistics Sweden in May and June 2011. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

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  31. Different social groups • Consider the three groups in the US, the hispanics, the blacks and the white. • Note the growth rate for each • Note the gender differences • Note the similarities between the groups, in terms of • Gender growth rates • and the differences between the gender Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

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  35. Conclusions We find • similar, robustness • similar long-term trends • similar gender similarites • similar gender differences • across cultures • social groups • age groups Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

  36. Conclusions In order to understand the mechanisms of growth • we should look at the gender effects • but especially the age effects • and the effects and trends within different degrees • e.g. low growth rates for certain ages for males may only tell a very small part of the story • we suggest that essentially the same patterns are pretty universal and thus there is some important invariance over cultures and social groups • we can expect massive growth over the next decades very much as hitherto Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

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  40. Thank you Kærar þakkir Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland

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