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Modelling future climate in the Baltic region

Modelling future climate in the Baltic region. Ole Bøssing Christensen DMI. Ændring i global middeltemperatur 1860-2001 (CRU 2002). Change in radiative forcing since pre-industrial time. Radiative Forcing. NET: ~1,46 W/m 2. Scenarios. IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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Modelling future climate in the Baltic region

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  1. Modelling future climate in the Baltic region Ole Bøssing Christensen DMI Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  2. Ændring i global middeltemperatur 1860-2001 (CRU 2002) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  3. Change in radiative forcing since pre-industrial time Radiative Forcing NET: ~1,46 W/m2 Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  4. Scenarios IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. • A1 represents aworld in rapid economic growth, but with a population reaching its maximum in about 50 years. Relatively rapid introduction of energy-efficient technologies. • A2 represents a world in varying rates of economic development and a continuous population growth. Initially the economic growth is smaller than A1. • B1 is a world where environmental technologies are introduced worldwide. Population growth will culminate in about 50 years. • B2 is a world with regional introduction of environmental technologies. There will be a continued but moderate population growth.. Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  5. Emission scenarios CO2 emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios. Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  6. CO2 (kuldioxid) Scenarios: ppmv CH4 (methan) Scenarios: Scenarios: N2O (lattergas) ppbv ppbv IPCC’s SRES scenarios(concentrations) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  7. Climate forcing Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  8. Feedbacks of the Climate System • Positive: • Water vapor • Ice-snow albedo effect • CO2 og CH4 uptake by oceans and land surfaces • Negative: • Infrared heat loss (T4) increasing with temperature • Uncertain: • Clouds Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  9. What is a climate model? A numerical model based on the fundamental laws of physics. The flow of atmosphere and oceans are described globally or regionally. A typical global model: ECHAM4/OPYC3. Atmospheric component consists of 128x64 horisontal boxes in 19 vertical layers. Time step around 20 minutes. The ocean model has 11 vertical layers and a variable horisontal resolution, about 55 km near the Equator. Also land surface and sea ice are described. A typical regional model: HIRHAM 110x104 lattice boxes of about 50 km distance, 19 vertical layers. Time step around 5 minutes. Ocean, sea ice and atmopspheric boundary conditions from a ”driving” model. Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  10. GCM 250 km HIRHAM 0.44° Resolution issues Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  11. Reconstruction of climate variations Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  12. Span of model results Change in 9 different models A2, winter Change in 9 different models B2, winter Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  13. Summary of expected changes Temperature Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  14. Summary of expected changes Precipitation Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  15. GCM RCM 2-meter Temperature Summer (C) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  16. RCM 2-meter Temperature Winter (C) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  17. d GCM RCM Precipitation Summer (mm/d) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  18. RCM Precipitation Winter (mm/d) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  19. GC Climate change Temperature Summer Climate change Precipitation Summer Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  20. Climate change Temperature Winter Climate change Precipitation Winter Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  21. Change in mean temperature ECHAM HIRHAM Summer Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  22. Change in mean precipitation (%) ECHAM HIRHAM July-August-September Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  23. Precipitation events andresolution JJA From Christensen et al. (2002) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  24. Change in summer precipitation JAS Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  25. n=1, f=95%, 99%, 99.9%(4.5/y – 1/y – 1/10y) n=1, f=95%, 99%,99.9%(4.5/y – 1/y – 1/10y) n=1, f=95%, 99%, 99.9%(4.5/y – 1/y – 1/10y) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  26. n=1, f=95%, 99%, 99.9%(4.5/y – 1/y – 1/10y) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  27. f=99%, n=1, 5, 11 Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  28. Change in precipitation (%) Mean > 99% percentile for n = 5 HIRHAM July-August-September Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  29. River catchments Torneälven Luleå Kemi Ångerman 400 m contour Indalsälven Göta Vuoksi Daugava Oder Seine Neman Elbe Loire Vistula Rhein Garonne Donau Rhone Po Ebro Guadalquivir Hagemann personal communication Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  30. Mean precipitation mean exceeding the 95%,99%, and 99.9%percentile IPCC A2 (full line) and B2 (dotted line) scenarios. Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  31. Wind change Winter 10-m wind change Summer 10-m wind change Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  32. Further information • DOWNLOADS: • IPCC’s home page ( www.ipcc.ch ) contains many reports for free download • The DMI’s home page ( www.dmi.dk ), contains several papers, reports and translations regarding climate change and variations. • Three European projects are concerned with changes in extreme events. See the common web portal www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/ • BOOKS: • IPCC 2001: Climate Change 2001 - The Scientific Basis (edited by J. T. Houghton et al.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 881p. • Jørgensen m.fl. 2001: Climate Change Research, Danish Contributions. Gads Forlag, 408p. • Jørgensen, Halsnæs og Fenger 2002: Den Globale Opvarmning –bekæmpelse og tilpasning Gads Forlag ISBN: 87-12-03779-6 • Dansgaard, 1987: Klima, Vejr og Menneske, Geografforlaget, ISBN 87-7702-004-9. Sønderborg 17/6/2003

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