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CLIMATIC INFLUENCE ON RIVER VARIABILITY DANIEL ALLASIA and CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO F R O M INSTITUTE FOR HYDRAULICS RESEARCH AND L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y. DANIEL ALLASIA and CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO.
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CLIMATIC INFLUENCE ON RIVER VARIABILITYDANIEL ALLASIAand CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO FROM INSTITUTE FOR HYDRAULICS RESEARCH ANDLUNDUNIVERSITY
DANIEL ALLASIA and CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO CLIMATIC INFLUENCE ON RIVER VARIABILITYINSTITUTE FOR HYDRAULICS RESEARCH AND L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
River Basin • Upper Paraguay River basin • Memory
River Data – standardized annual average • River level at Ladário - green • Mean Annual Discharge • Porto Murtinho • Cuiabá
SAM – Southern Annular Mode (Thompson and Solomon, 2002) PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Mantua et al., 1997) NAO – North Atlantic Oscillation (Hurrell et al., 2002) ENSO – El Niño – Southern Oscillation (NINO3.4) Climate indicators
Monthly level forecast: Ladário o forecast level with climate index + forecast level without climate index ---- observed level
Monthly anomalous composites for circulation and precipitable water from NCEP Reanalysis SAM – ENSO effect extracted. NAO ENSO PDO -1std > SAM -1std < SAM < 1std SAM > 1std Composites
Composites - February • SAM < -1std SAM > 1std
Anomalous composite: precipitable water • December NAO>1std January
Anomalous composite: precipitable water • February • NAO < -1std
Conclusions: Climate Phenomena • ENSO and NAO affects the Ladário level by monitoring the North Atlantic SST • SAM affects Ladário level by monitoring the circulation • PDO – long term signal influenced by the other phenomena.
Conclusions: Statistical Modelling • Linear regression capture the relationship with SAM • Non-linear methods could better represent the non-linear relations among the other climate phenomena.