TOURISM IN BELARUS : ACCOMMODATION AND HOUSEHOLDS SURVEYS

1. TOURISM IN BELARUS : ACCOMMODATION AND HOUSEHOLDS SURVEYS Natallia Bokun, Örebro, 2019

2. International tourist arrivals: 1950 - 25 million 2017 – 1.329 million 2000 - 680 million 2018 – 1.403 million 2010 - 951 million International tourism receipts, US $: 1950 - 2 billion 2000 - 495 billion 2017 - 1.340 billion International tourism represents 7 % of the world’s export of goods and services. Positive trends, recorded in tourist arrivals, receipts are observed (6-7 % compared to the previous year). Tourism in the world

3. In 2014-2017 tourism contributes directly around 2.5 % of GDP, using to 6 % if indirect impacts are also included (Travel and Tourism Economic Impact 2017 Belarus) Export revenues from tourism amount to approximately US $ 700-800 million annually, equivalent to 1.5-2 % of total exports of goods and services. In 2018 more than 11 million people visited Belarus. 50 % of the clients in accommodation establishments were foreign tourists. Tourism in belarus:main indicators and trends

4. Table 1 - Tourism in belarus: main indicators

5. Table 1 - Tourism in belarus: main indicators

6. Table 1 - Tourism in belarus: main indicators

7. Table 1 - Tourism in belarus: main indicators

8. the tourism industry has been growing consistently; international tourist arrivals in 2018 grew by 29 % to reach a total of 365.5 thousand; it was the nine consecutive year of above-average growth in international tourism following the 2009 global economic crisis; travel for holidays, recreation and other forms of leisure accounted for just over half of all international tourist arrivals and departures; some 10 % of all international tourist reported travelling for business and professional purposes; one of the major tourism spheres is supporting international conferences, cultural and sport events. Tourism in belarus:main indicators and trends

9. in 2017-2018 redirection of tourism flows was observed; in 2010-2017 the negative export-import balance by “trips” was observed; values of import exceed those of export; low level of service, low quality of tourism industries; low development rates of alternative kinds of tourism, low tourism efficiency; careless, partial and discordant set of information, connected with different aspects of tourism; important direction of the tourism estimation is development of tourism satellite account and specialized surveys. Tourism in belarus:main indicators and trends

10. Nowadays the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus does preparatory work on development of tourism satellite account. In 2017 Methodological Recommendations for construction of Tourism satellite account (TSA) were adopted. Since 2017-2018, the first tables of this account are calculated. Tourism satellite account and possible information sources

11. two aspects of tourism are measured: consumption of commodities and services by visitors (demand); production of tourist commodities and services by industries (supply) tourism expenditures and supply indicators are accounted by kinds of activity (accommodation of visitors, services of public catering entities, transports, tourism industry entities, sporting and others) domestic, inbound, outbound kinds of tourism are considered TSA is formed once a two years (since 2017) Tourism satellite account (TSA):

12. tourism industry enterprises reports (tourism supply indicators) system of different surveys, which include establishment samples, households samples (tourism demand indicators) The main sources and instruments for formation TSA:

13. The main aim is asking residents in their usual environment (usually at their home) about tourism expenditures, trips they have taken, after reference period, e.g. the past month. The following procedures to measure domestic tourism can be used: Specifically designed surveys to estimate tourism activity of the resident population through comprehensive questionnaires or light telephone surveys (CATI); questions in the latter case need to be simpler and direct The inclusion of a “tourism module” – a set of interconnected questions to learn more about certain characteristics of visitor behavior – as part of multipurpose surveys. In Belarus the second procedure is used. Tourism households surveys

14. Survey object is household. Survey is carried out at all country regions and separately in Minsk. It’s annually is covered 0,2 % or 6000 HH. • In this kind of sampling is used territorial probabilistic three-stage sample: • at the first step sampling units are cities and rural soviets; • on the second step – local-polling districts in city and data of the soviet account in rural soviets, • on the third – HH. Procedure of selection of administrative and territorial units repeats once a 10 years. Selection of polling districts and HH carries out annually. Sample survey of households(since 1995)

15. The methodology of weighing and raising of the selective data on a general population is based on assignment of each finite unit (HH) the corresponding weight (Вi): (1) where p1– probability of selection of each city and rural soviet; p2– probability of selection of each polling district in cities, zones in rural soviet; p3 – probability of selection of everyone HH within polling district or a zone. Sample survey of households(since 1995)

16. The sample program assumes filling of some questionnaires (living conditions, personal subsidiary plots, education, health, employment) and additional tourism module (trips, duration, tourism expenditures). Daily and quarterly questionnaires: expenses on food and unfood, payment of services etc. Specifical questions on tourism: • Did you make tourism trips? • What were general parameters of your tourism trip (purpose; domestic, inbound or outbound; number of households members; duration)? • Did you have tourism expenditures during reference quarter? • What kind of the tourism expenditures did you have (package travel, package holidays and package tours; accommodation; food and drinks; local transport; international transport; recreations, culture and sporting activities; shopping; others). Sample survey of households(since 1995)

17. The main purpose is to obtain empirical statistics on the labour force, employed by kinds of activity, including tourism Frequency of the results: quarterly and annual Forecast response rate – 80 %. Labour Force Survey (since 2012)

18. survey object is the private households in urban and rural areas for each region, resident persons aged 15-74 years • territorial three-stage sampling is used • observed units: • primary unit – city or village council • secondary unit – census enumeration district or village (zone) • final sampling unit – household • at each stage units are selected with systematic selection with probability, that proportional population number or household number • variables used for the stratification: administrative districts, urban/rural • sampling frame is based on the 2009 census and includes sets of cities, village councils, census enumeration districts, villages, the household totality in each census enumeration district Sampling Design:

19. SAMPLE SIZE Used key indicator is the real unemployment rate (by the census results) Target groups are labor force (rural, urban, by regions, 5-year groups) Design –effect (deff) – 1.5 (Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey Manual (2009) The follow sample size formula is used: where n – required size for the key indicator; 4 – the factor to achieve 95% level of confidence, t-criteria; r – predicted prevalence for the key indicator; 1.2 –correction for non-responses (20%); f – the symbol for deff (1.5); 0.12 – recommended relative sample error; p – proportion of the total population upon which the indicator (r) is based; nh – average household size. Average sample size calculated by different variants is 28 thousand

20. Weighting procedure: Basic weights with different probabilities, individual weights, calculated by two iterations, are used Household weight 1. HH weights are calculated as inverse of overall sampling probabilities: (2) where p1 – probability of selection of each city and village council; p2 – probability of selection of each census enumeration district in cities, zones in rural soviet; p3 – probability of selection of everyone HH within or a zone. For the case of non-response an additional array of HH is reserved within not less than 20% of the total sample (28000x0,2≈6000).

21. Weighting procedure: Individual survey person weights is based on iterative weighting: Iteration I a) weights are calculated by sex, five-years group design b) the first correct coefficient (k1) is calculated; variables of weighting are region, sex, rural/urban c) the second correct coefficient (k2) is calculated; variables are region, sex, 11 five-years groups. Weight is equal within each region, five-years group in urban or rural area Iteration II: follow adjustment of weights Final individual weight for each five-years group: (3) where:

22. In Belarus visitor survey at collective accommodation establishment (VS)is conducted (since 2015-2016). The purpose is estimation of visitor expenditures. Average expenditures per day are measured Expenditures are: accommodation, food and beverages, transport, car rental, recreation services, culture, others Observed units are visitors and accommodation establishments (hotels and similar) Sampling frames are collective accommodation establishments, represented in state statistical reports ((4-tur (accommodation)) Accommodation surveys

23. Sample design: univariate stratified random sample is used establishment stratification is carried out by the main variable – average value of bed-place, weighting procedure: HT-estimates are used frequency: quarterly (week) Accommodation surveys

24. Several types of the sample size calculations were executed: random selection without stratification random selection with stratification (by average value of bed-place, rubles); N1=351; N2=28; N3=2 combined selection (large entities are observed completely) Sample size

25. TABLE 2 – SAMPLE SIZE FOR VS

26. Variant III is more efficient: Sampling fraction is 17.9%, error is – 5.9%, Sample size

27. Surveys in the informal sector: boarder surveys, transport surveys, others Frames Non-registered visitors statistical universe Variables: Means of transport Type of visitor Country of residence Sampling Questionnaires Response and non-response Data collection Estimation Total expenditure Data processing Average expenditure by visitor Average daily expenditure by visitor Data checking Coverage error Sampling and non-sampling error Pilot survey Survey on regular basis

28. Border surveys Sample survey of individuals at automobile roads checkpoints across the State border is conducted (since 2015) The main aims are: to obtain statistical data on the volumes of commodities, imported and exported by individuals crossing the State border (with Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine); to obtain information on the tourism expenditures, trips; Observed units are individuals (residents and non-residents) Two forms of blanks for inbound and outbound tourism are used: Frequency: twice a year in the II and IV quarters; In April 2015 total number of responses is 3121 filled questionnaires (72.9 %), in October 2016 – 7437 (51.9 %). Non-probability sample is used

29. Surveys in the informal sector Outbound and domestic tourism (transport survey, 2016); the main aim is to obtain data on the tourism expenditures and estimate the number of international visitors. Observed units are passengers.Only passengers entering the legal and economic territory should be counted as visitors.

30. Surveys in the informal sector Air transport – Surveys in National airport The data are collected in face-to-face interviews. The questionnaires are carried out by National airport “Minsk”, “Belavia” employees, air-hostesses. Observed trips are №951 “Minsk-Moscow”, №939 “Minsk- St. Petersburg” Railways – Observed trips are: train №26 “Minsk-Moscow”, №52 “Minsk-St. Petersburg” The questionnaires are carried out by guards

31. Surveys in the informal sector Other public transport by land (buses): Trip between Minsk and St.Petersburg, Minsk-Moscow; the data are collected by tourism department employees, bus drivers. Domestic tourism monitoring: passengers observations at railway and bus stations (Minsk, Gomel, Brest, Vitebsk, Baranovichi, Orsha, Grodno, Pinsk, Mogilev) Pedestrians – People living/working close to a border point might simply walk across it.Tramps might also fall in this category

32. Concluding remarks The experience of construction of households accommodation samples and surveys in the informal sector has shown: • main problems are: localization of the sample, non- responses (30-40%), high level of errors, the need for carrying out of additional special surveys • the priority is given to inclusion of a “tourism module” as part of multipurpose survey (Survey of Households Living Standards, Labour Force Survey) • conducted boarder survey does not solve the problem of hidden and informal tourism; reasons are voluntary nature of the questionnaire, openness of the border with the Russian Federation

33. Concluding remarks Perspectives: the use of combination of univariate and multivariate samples, quasicausal samples, expert estimates, tertiary sources, increase of sample size of Border surveys, updating existing questionnaires following surveys are planned: special establishment surveys (transport, recreation) development of a system of interconnected tourism households surveys, of which in the informal sector calculation a set of sustainable development indicators for tourism (driving forces, pressure, state, impact and others) calibration: it is necessary to complete the information related to the universe of selection

34. Thank you Very much!