RSMC Wellington report for SWFDDP RSMT meeting Nadi , 26-29 August 2013

1. Steve Ready RSMC Wellington report for SWFDDP RSMT meeting Nadi, 26-29 August 2013

2. MetConnect Pacific landing page Dashed line marks boundary for change in wave criteria – 2.5m/3.5m

3. Current Criteria (old) for South Pacific Guidance charts HEAVY RAIN STRONG WIND LARGE WAVES TROPICAL CYCLONES (non-TC) (non-TC)(non-TC) ≥ 100mm in 24 hours≥30knots≥ 2.5m north of 15⁰Snow or later (> 50mm in 24 hours) (≥25knots) ≥ 3.5m at & south of 15⁰S (≥ 2.5m everywhere) Confidence factors Low (1 in 5 chance) or moderate (2 in 5 chance) or high (3 in 5 chance)

4. South Pacific Guidance statistics for year 1 Aug 12 to 31 July 13 1 SPG day = 10 charts (e.g. Over the entire year, 3650 charts were produced)

5. The following 4 slides illustrate the usefulness of the South Pacific Guidance charts produced by RSMC Wellington in providing a heads up of severe weather and wave eventsfrom 4 days out

6. LARGE WAVE event 1: eastern Kiribati Long period waves Spring tides 29-Aug-2011 • Issued 2 days before Issued day before • Target day Evidence • Issued 4 days before • Issued 3 days before Wave damage observed on Teraina (Washington) Island near 4.71 North 160.76 West

7. HEAVY RAIN event 4: VitiLevu, Fiji Extreme river & surface flooding 30-March-2012 • Issued 2 days before Issued day before • Target day Evidence • Issued 3 days before • Issued 4 days before 700mm in 3 days at Nadi Airport including 300mm in 12hrs on 30-March-2013

8. SWFDDP web portal = MetConnect Pacific • Version 1 released for 1st round of in-country training between July and October 2009 and fully operational from 1 November 2009 • Version 2 released on 15 December 2010 • Only operational outage – 3 hours on 30 June 2012 due to server problems in USA • Version 3 to be developed in the near future includes • Overhaul of website graphics (new MetService branding) • Availability of ACCESS-TC products from Australian BoM • UKMO multi-model ensemble products to be loaded directly • Summary page of the latest Pacific Island synops • Access to SPG archive, archive of UKMO & RSMC Darwin images • Future reports to be completed online • Email alert for future news items • Version 3 has been made possible through the kind sponsorship of NOAA (Dan Beardsley) • Challenge: Finding suitable funding for other development work in the future

9. SWFDDP Training • Visits carried out for all 9 participating countries between May and November 2012 (This was 2nd round for all except Niue) • Content covered all aspects of the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ including a ½ to 1 day workshop involving several emergency response agencies • Trainers – MetService, with help of US NOAA NWS staff in Samoa and Fiji • MetService is grateful to New Zealand Ministry for the Environment (MfE) New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) for funding the 2nd round of in-country training • Challenge: Finding resources to conduct similar training in the future probably before 2015/2016 cyclone season

10. Training feedback • NMHSs – very appreciative of the in-country training and requested similar training in the near future • Gained a better understanding of the gaps in participating countries’ non-tropical cyclone warning systems • Verification tool can only be implemented properly once the non-tropical cyclone warning system is operating properly • Internet connectivity issues still affect a few countries • Small-scale convective disturbances resulting in flash flooding not handled by existing SWFDDP guidance • Emergency exercise helped forge closer ties between the local NMHS and agencies dependent on their services

11. Concerns and challenges • Management of SWFDDP after the Full Demonstration phase • No hard criteria for progression to phase 4 - continuing development phase (or “operational” phase) • Long-term sustainable funding for SWFDDP especially for future development of MetConnect Pacific and training • Alternative delivery for MetConnect Pacific products • Success of SWFDDP will be measured by how well participating countries are prepared to step up and embrace new challenges e.g. a meaningful non-TC warning system

12. Emergencies & business continuance • The Christchurch earthquakes and recent swarm of earthquakes affecting Wellington highlighted business continuance readiness • NZ forecast operations relocated to the Alternative Forecasting Centre (AFC) in Paraparaumu from 22 to 24 July 2013 following 6.5 earthquake in Wellington • RSMC Wellington was able to produce the South Pacific Guidance charts during this period • There are plans to relocate the AFC further away from Wellington; in Auckland.

13. Alternative Forecast Centre, Unisys Building, Paraparaumu Auckland 50km