Impact of the crisis on the European transport sector – employment, wages, gender aspect

1. Impact of the crisis on the European transport sector – employment, wages, gender aspect European Transportworkers Federation Women`s Committe seminar Portugal 3-4 November 2010 Béla Galgóczi bgalgoczi@etui.org

2. Main framework conditions – Autumn 2010 • Clear signs of an end of the recession and a moderate upturn in developed industrial economies (EU, US, Japan) but it is volatile and still mostly due to on-off crisis intervention measures • Two speed Europe: German economy is soaring (with some of its smaller neighbours linked to it), while South Europe remains in recession • The labour market situation is further on tense (with the exception of Germany), unemployment is still growing, wages are under pressure

3. The new danger: austerity • The debt crisis in the Eurozone has pushed governments in a number of high-debt and/or high deficit countries, • such as Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain, to apply draconian austerity measures. • Under pressure from the financial markets countries with low debt ratios, such as Germany and France, have also adopted consolidation programs. • This abrupt farewell to stimulus packages and the expansionary fiscal policy threatens to sweep away the hesitant and fragile recovery in Europe.

4. Europe in 2010 – a divided picture • GDP is expected to grow (annual average) by 1.0 per cent in the EU-27 and by 0.9 per cent in the Eurozone in 2010 • Signs of recovery took greater momentum in Germany in the second quarter of 2010. • 3.7 per cent year-on-year increase of GDP in the second quarter of 2010 • helped the Eurozone upwards with year-on-year GDP growth of 1.7 per cent (instead of the forecast 1.4 per cent) • The current upswing was driven by a surge in German exports that were mostly boosted by the weak euro in the first half of 2010. • This upswing seems to be over now…

5. Gross domestic product in 2009 and prognosis for 2010 (annual growth) Data Source: European Commission (2009).

6. Unemployment rate, 2009-2010

7. Industrial output – spring 2010 • Industrial output of the EU-27 showed a clear upswing by over 10% by Spring 2010 • This was however only enough to bring industrial output back to the level of 2001 • The scar of the economic crisis remains there • Slide 10 shows the upswing by product groups, intermediate goods (like steel, car parts, chemicals) taking the lead by over 10% year-on-year increase

8. Industrial output: with the upswing back in 2001 Data Source: European Commission (2009).

9. Transport sector – the lifeblood of the economy Source: European Commission

10. Transport sector – the lifeblood of the economy • The global economic crisis and the collapse of world trade in 2009 had a major impact on the transport sectorWorld container traffic (TEUs) fell by 26% in 2009, while air freight ton-km dropped by 10%. Preliminary data for 2009 also indicate a 23% reduction in rail ton-km and a reduction of just over 21% in road ton-km in the European Union. Passenger transport has not been affected as significantly as freight transport. Still, air passenger transport in IATA member countries dropped by 3.5% in 2009, about the size of the fall of rail passenger transport (-3.8%) in the 52 member countries of the International Transport Forum. • In Western Europe, the share of transport infrastructure investment as a share of GDP continued to decline to below 0.8% in 2008 (1995: 1%). In Eastern and Central Europe, the strong recent acceleration in the volume of infrastructure investment has slowed down. Still investment in inland transport infrastructure increased over 17% in real terms in the period 2007- 2008, with only 2.5% growth in Western European countries.

11. Transport sector employment in Europe • In the EU-25, a total of 8.2 million people were employed in all transport services combined in 2004. Railway transport accounted for just 11 percent, or 900,000 jobs. Rail employment has fallen in the last few decades and even in the short period of 2000 and 2004, the number of jobs was cut by 14 percent. • Road passenger and freight transport jobs, by contrast, number some 4.3 million, and air transport jobs number 400,000 (Syndex, 2009). • According to the International Association of Public Transport (UITP), an estimated 900,000 people are employed in urban public transport in the 25 member states of the European Union. • Railways can generally be regarded as sources of green employment. In many countries, the trend over the last few decades has however been away from this mode of transport, and towards cars, trucks, and planes. Employment—both in the operation of railway lines and in the manufacture of locomotives and rolling stock—has fallen accordingly.

12. Labour market prospects By early 2010 unemployment has further grown in all EU countries, by summer 2010 only signs of stabilisation in a number of countries although on a very high level • High unemployment will remain a huge problem in the mid-term even if output starts to grow • It is a further danger that output growth is based on productivity growth and not on employment growth • We should not forget that manufacturing output fell by 19% in the first Q of 2009, employment fell by 6% • In automobile industry output down by 40% in Q1, employment by 7.5% • It will take a long time to restore pre-crisis employment

13. Key role of labour market buffers, 2009Q2 (change compared to 2008Q2)chapter 2 and 3 Source: Eurostat online data base (European Labour Force Survey and National Accounts). Age: 16-64.

14. Development of unemployment by gender in the crisis, 2008Q2 and 2009Q2 men women Data source: Eurostat (2009) European Labour Force Survey (ELFS). Age: 15-64

15. Unemployment rates by labour market subgroup, 2009Q2 Data source: Eurostat (2009) European Labour Force Survey (ELFS). Age: 15-64 if not stated otherwise.

16. Rate of change of unemployment by labour market subgroup: 2008Q2-2009Q2 (2008Q2=100) Data source: Eurostat (2009) European Labour Force Survey (ELFS). Age: 15-64 if not stated otherwise.

17. Short time working schemes in the economic crisis

18. I

19. Productivity, inflation, wages In the next slides we show major trends in productivity, nominal wages and inflation based on the Commissions Ameco data basis The first graph shows long-term productivity trends, where the industry and manufacturing have built up a huge productivity advantage compared to the whole economy During the crisis some of this `productivity reserve` disappeared, but the advantage remained Slides 13-14-15 show trends on whole economy level, as this is what counts at wage negotiations

20. Longer term trend of productivity (before crisis)

21. Development of productivity, 2009-2010

22. Inflation by country, 2009-2010

23. Development of nominal wages, 2009-2010

24. Wage share in GDP

25. Real wage developments, 2009, 2010 • 2009: EU-27 average increased by 0.55% • + 0.88 per cent in the Euro area • Germany saw a decrease by 1.5 per cent. • The situation was worst in Latvia and Lithuania, where real wages declined by 11 and 5 per cent, • in 2009, Bulgaria, Greece had the highest increases, by 4% • In 2010 real wages to grow by 0.37% in the EU-27 and by 0.61% in the Eurozone. • Greece: a real wage drop by 3.6% and further CEE countries + UK and Ireland is also likely to have a decrease • Spain and Germany: slightly increase (by 0.5 and 0.8 per cent).

26. Wage formula in 2009 and 2010 • In 2009 the wage formula was `over-performed` by 2.9% in the Eurozone: 2 % drop in productivity and 0.9% increase of real wage • Not so in the EU-27 level, where in 2009 both productivity and real wages decreased by 2% • For 2010 for the Euro area expects a lower real wage increase (1.5 per cent) than that of productivity (almost 2%). • For the EU-27, again under-performing by 1.6%, with a productivity increase of 2 per cent and a real wage increase of 0.4 per cent. • Eurozone (without Germany) rather balanced, Germany and non-Eurozone MS under pressure

27. Conclusions • Even if the vague signs of an upturn get manifested in the rest of the year, auterity packages pose a huge threat • Labour market is further on under stress • 2009 was only an exception that the wage formula was fulfilled (but only in the Eurozone without Germany) • Wage increases would be a precondition for recovery and the interest of all players as consumer demand is key in overcoming the crisis! • GERMANY should take the lead (in wage increases) – signs of dynamic wage inreases (2.7% real wage inrease forcast for 2010 – largest in a decade)