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Case Study: 22-23 February 1998 Central Florida Tornado Outbreak

Case Study: 22-23 February 1998 Central Florida Tornado Outbreak. Case Overview. Nocturnal outbreak over central Florida 42 fatalities/260 injuries Ample shear/instability south of surface front in central FL

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Case Study: 22-23 February 1998 Central Florida Tornado Outbreak

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  1. Case Study:22-23 February 1998Central Florida Tornado Outbreak

  2. Case Overview • Nocturnal outbreak over central Florida • 42 fatalities/260 injuries • Ample shear/instability south of surface front in central FL • System was disorganized over Gulf of Mexico but rapidly intensified as it moved onshore • Rapidly evolving threat + nocturnal nature made warning public difficult

  3. Storm Reports • + Wind > 26 m s-1 • Hail > 2 cm Tornado

  4. 1000 hPa hgt, 1000-500 hPa THCK 500 hPa HGHT, AVOR 23 February 1998 0000 UTC 200 hPa HGHT, Isotachs 850 hPa HGHT, e, Isotachs

  5. 22/1815 UTC

  6. 23/0015 UTC

  7. TBW Sounding and Hodograph 23/0000 UTC 500 925 700 850 CAPE = 2891 J/kg LI = -9 C LCL = 962 hPa

  8. SST and SST’ 22 February 1998

  9. 23/0156 UTC m s-1 dBZ

  10. 23/0336 UTC m s-1 dBZ

  11. m s-1 dBZ 23/0515 UTC

  12. Question • Why did the disorganized convective line intensify so rapidly after making landfall on the Florida peninsula?

  13. 23/0000 UTC Surface Analysis • Lightning for ½ hour Ending 23/0000 UTC

  14. GNV/MCO Meteograms e (K) e (K)

  15. Surface Frontogenesis 22/2100 UTC 23/0000 UTC

  16. Surface Frontogenesis 23/0200 UTC 23/0400 UTC

  17. Surface Vorticity 23/0000 UTC 23/0400 UTC

  18. Summary: Case Study • Costliest/deadliest tornado outbreak in FL history • Convective intensity related to SST’ in Gulf of Mexico • Rapid supercell development onshore related to diabatically induced front • Ample instability/strong shear south of front (TBW sounding)

  19. 23/0200

  20. 23/0300

  21. 23/0400

  22. Schematic

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