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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This report provides an update on the recent evolution and current conditions of the South American Monsoon System. It includes rainfall anomalies, tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies, atmospheric circulation patterns, wind and temperature anomalies, and NCEP/GFS model forecasts.

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 March 2015 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Large long-term (90-day) rainfall deficits continue over central and southeastern Brazil. • During the last 7 days (23-29 March 2015), below-average precipitation was observed over most of the Amazon Basin, southeastern Bolivia, eastern Argentina, and Uruguay. Above-average precipitation was observed over southern Suriname, French Guiana, extreme southern Colombia, Ecuador, and northern Peru. • For 30 March-5 April 2015, below-average precipitation is indicated for most of the Amazon Basin, Northeast and southern Brazil, and eastern Argentina.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most of the Amazon Basin, southeastern Bolivia, eastern Argentina, and Uruguay. Above-average precipitation was observed over southern Suriname, French Guiana, extreme southern Colombia, Ecuador, and northern Peru.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of the eastern and southern Amazon Basin, Bolivia, Paraguay, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over southern Suriname, French Guiana, and portions of the western Amazon Basin.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the southern Amazon Basin (>300 mm) and the Brazilian Plateau (200-300 mm). • 90-day rainfall is below average (~50 mm) over southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above average in the equatorial Pacific and near average in the equatorial Atlantic. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 22-28 Mar. 2015, anomalous cyclonic flow (center indicated by red C) was located over the western Atlantic, with stronger-than-average westerlies extending from northern Chile eastward across northern Argentina and southern Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion occurred over the central Andes Mts. and anomalous sinking motion occurred over portions of central and eastern Brazil. C • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 22-28 Mar. 2015, above-average temperatures were observed over central and southern Chile, and below-average temperatures were observed over central and northern Argentina, Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 30 March 2015 –Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 30 March 2015 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (30 March-5 April 2015), below-average precipitation is indicated for most of the Amazon Basin, Northeast and southern Brazil, and eastern Argentina. • For Days 8-14 (6-12 April 2015), below-average precipitation is predicted for the central and eastern Amazon Basin, Bolivia, southern Brazil, and portions of southeastern Brazil. Near-to or above-average precipitation is indicated for Northeast Brazil.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 16 March 2015 Valid for 23-29 Mar 2015 Forecast from 23 March 2015 Valid for 23-29 Mar. 2015 Observed 23-29 Mar. 2015

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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