THE BLACK SEA FORUM FOR DIALOGUE AND PARTNERSHIP Bucharest Summit, 4th – 6th of June 2006

1. THE BLACK SEA FORUM FOR DIALOGUE AND PARTNERSHIP Bucharest Summit, 4th – 6th of June 2006 Crisis management: prevention, response, readiness and recovery Dr. Velizar Shalamanov PPD SfP981149 CoE in Operational Analyses (http://www.gcmarshall.bg/sfp981149/) in IPP-BAS / George C. Marshall Assoc. -Bulgaria This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of Science for Peace Program - Project SFP-981149 (2005-2007) in preparation of EU TACOM SEE-2006 exercise and under kind invitation and support from Romanian MoFA

2. Outline • Crisis Management – new challenge for security • What are the main crises that could affect the region? • Terrorism • Natural disasters • Health pandemics • What are the key organisational capabilities for crisis management? • National level • Regional level • International level • What needs to be built to improve readiness in the region? • Organisational capabilities • Internal and external resources • Concept development and Experimentation in the Area of Civil Security / Crisis management – solution for Wider BS Area.

3. New Security Environment – New Challenges: Crisis Management • Types of crisis we face: • Disasters / Catastrophes – including health pandemics • Public Order / Security • Military / paramilitary operations – expeditionary ops • Threatened interests abroad • Terrorism and organized crime / trafficking • Crisis management and new scope of: • risks activated to form the situation • development of the situation • citizens involved / impacted • involved institutions (local, district, national, regional, global) • required resources as quality and quantity • legal norms activated • the cooperation on the ground

4. What are the main crises that could affect the region? • Terrorism – challenge for security, but mostly in Caucasus and Turkey. More serious issue is organized crime and trafficking, corruption. • Natural disasters and industrial incidents are real threat to security of the citizens and critical infrastructure. • Health pandemics could be serious risk for citizens. • Conclusion: Trans-border problem Multi-agency response needed Little alert time Threat to large number of citizens Consequence management challenge High cost of recovery High level of awareness and training is required

5. Civil Security Concept–Citizen(s) and its Living Environment in the Center • Third Pillar of the Security Sector: Crisis Response and Emergency Management Service = Civil Security Organization • Civil Society and Citizen: Third Factor in SSR to address Civil Security • Balance between central power and local powers • Balance between public and private component • Balance between state component and volunteer components • Balance between Civil Security Organization and MoD / MoI, other traditional security sector services • Level of international cooperation Building of Integrated Security Sector through Third Generation SSR White paper on Civil Security in Bulgaria presented in 2004 Concept for Protection of Population and National Economy as Civil Security Concept is supported in 2005/2006

6. What are the key organisational capabilities for crisis management? • National level – integration of early warning systems, emergency call integrated system, integrated emergency management, interoperability of response units and legal base for joint action • Regional level – regional coordination needed, together with joint training and interoperability of the systems, joint early warning • International level – EU and NATO need to cooperate in order to be effective in the region, UN/OSCE have to be involved, BSEC has the mandate to cover the problem

7. Third Generation of SSR: Integrated Security Sector (ISS) focused on Civil Security • Functional Challenge - responsibilities • Structural Challenge – separate organization • Operational Challenge – leading / support organization for different operations • Capabilities Challenge – ownership of critical capabilities • Civil Control Issue: Parliamentarian control of resources, operations, personnel policy • International Cooperation Issue (SEE, BSCR / WBSA, NATO/PfP, EU, OSCE) – Code of Conduct and Cooperation on Emergency Management • Change Management Issue (Transformation) of the security sector to address new missions and for regional cooperation

8. What needs to be built to improve readiness in the region? • Organisational capabilities • Integrated emergency / crisis management system (IEMS) on the national and districts level • Planning, training, interoperability of equipment • Resource management for prevention, response, readiness and recovery • Internal and external resources • National resources • Directly in state emergency management institution • In different bodies with first responders • Public private partnership • Volunteers and donors • BSEC Role • EU support through ECHO, MIC • NATO support through EADRCC • US role in the Black Sea Crisis Management, including the issue of US footprint around Black Sea • UN OCHA

9. Key Role of Scenario Development in Concept ExperimentationSecurity Scenario Development NATO ARW, Boyana-2005, Bulgaria • Methodology identified • Regional view tested • Network Established but • Follow up is postponed • Local owner is missed • NATO, EU, US interest is limited Institutional approach similar to SEEGROUP SEECAP is needed for Civil Security – possible goal for NATO ARW, Bansko-2006, Bulgaria

10. EU TACOM SEE-2006 as a Case Study on Civil Security • Terrorist attack – disasters / catastrophes consequence management • New Emergency management (Civil Security Ministry) and its cooperation with MoD, MoI and other agencies for integrated response • SEE Regional Cooperation and EU MIC, NATO EADRCC • Bul Protection 2006, EU CME 06, NATO CMX 06 exercises integration • Extension to WBSA and integration in PfP/EAPC and EU Neighborhood Policy

11. Experimentation of Civil Security Concept • Concept development and study of political / legal framework, scenario development with NATO ARW and Scientific Coordination Council to Standing Government Commission on protection of Population • Architecture development and assessment with USTDA IEMS Feasibility Study • CAX for experimentation, training, knowledge acquisition with EU TACOM SEE-2006 • Change management: planning, costing, performance measurement, reporting with development of Ministry of State Policy on Disasters and Catastrophes (MSPDC) – supported by NATO SfP 981149 (2005-2007) • Knowledge management and education / training with DSC, AMoI, UNWE, SU and National Training Center Directorate of MSPDC, supported by National Science Foundation Security Sector Transformation Project (2006-2009)

12. Regional (SEE/WBSA) Training, Simulation and Analysis Center (JTSAC) on Civil Security • Step to Civil Security Coordination Center for WBSA • Research in the Area of Civil Security and Concept Development • Training, including ADL and CAX / Simulations for Experimentation • Analysis and LL from Exercises • Certification of personnel and teams • Integration between MoDs, MoIs and Civil Protection Services (Emergency Management Ministries) using Academic Environment • Joint venture – Administration / NGO, Universities, Academia Institutes; Regional players / NATO, EU, US

13. WG7 • Resources • management and • public relations WG2 WG3 WG4 WG5 -Concept development - Documentation - Lessons learned - Certification - Briefings • Scenario develop- • ment and simulation • Mathematical and • software support • - CAX configuration • JTSAC Information • Management System • - Communications • Emergency calls • Alerting • Field CM Center WG6 • Administrative • services Effective Management of JTSAC-IPPManagement of Research Organizations (CoE-OA case)Management of Research Projects (CM CAX case) Integration of NATO, EU, US and National Funding for Development of JTSAC-CS WG1 General Management Costing and analyses Planning and PR

14. Regional JTSAC Implementation • Strategy for development of Regional (SEE/GBSA) JTSAC – Civil Security (Civil Protection)as Bulgarian Contribution to EU/NATO/US efforts in SEE/GBSA in the Area of Emergency Management (CMEP) • Bulgaria is active in drafting Black Sea Strategy of NATO. Bulgaria is chairing for two years BSEC – WG “Civil Protection”, and is very active in NATO with EADRCC as well as in EU with MIC. • For EU TACOM SEE-2006 in the Institute of parallel processing (IPP-BAS) the National Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Center (JTSAC) on Civil Security (Civil Protection) will be established and with Government commitment will be very easy to be promoted as Regional (SEE/GBSA) JTSAC – Civil Security (Civil Protection).

15. Education for Change Management in Security Sector on Civil Security(international master degree) • National and International Security Course • SSR and Integrated Security Sector Course • Crisis Management and Civil Security Course • EAG and CAX Course • Program / Resource Management in Security Area Course • Knowledge Management in Security Area Course • Civil – Military Relations and Civil Control Course

16. Conclusions • Need for Civil Security Concept to address Crisis management from the side of end user of security – the CITIZEN • Training on regional bases is required to achieve common understanding of the CM challenge and to develop Code of Conduct • CAX could be key element for concept development, experimentation and training • Network of existing projects on CM could create solid base for better cooperation, will form a base for BSEC role and could consolidate internal as well as EU/NATO/US funding • Academic cooperation with participation of business and support from the administration is possible effective approach to improve the capabilities in crisis management