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Oversupply Issue and Challenges. Ken Dragoon August 31, 2011. Issue Definition. Minimum generation levels on the Northwest power system can at times exceed the ability to market the power. Negative market prices are an indicator of market saturation.
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Oversupply Issue and Challenges Ken Dragoon August 31, 2011
Issue Definition • Minimum generation levels on the Northwest power system can at times exceed the ability to market the power. • Negative market prices are an indicator of market saturation. • Limiting factors acting to contribute to minimum generation requirements include: • Total Dissolved Gas (TDG) caps on the hydro system, limit hydro system ability to spill energy. • Costs incurred by thermal units associated with displacement. • Cogeneration facilities. • Increasing levels of low, or negative, variable cost resources– principally wind generation. • Factors affecting power marketability: • Load growth rates and depressed economy. • Transmission limits and outages.
Challenges • Events are relatively infrequent, likely lasting days or weeks, and mainly during light load hours. • Not likely to occur every year. • Very limited amounts of energy on average annual basis. • Spring 2011 event was on the order of 100,000 MWh in a relatively extreme runoff year. • Although energy content may be modest, the power intensity can be very high– in the range of thousands of megawatts.
Solution Set Implications • Stand-alone solutions cannot be heavily capital intensive, despite the high power intensity of events. • Cost of load banks is likely end point for comparisons at ~$20-40/kW. • Solutions likely to involve pairings with other uses or objectives to cost share with other purposes.