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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This report provides an update on the recent evolution and current conditions of the South American Monsoon System. It includes highlights, forecast models, climatology, rainfall patterns, and atmospheric circulation. The report also includes precipitation forecasts for the next 14 days.

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 September 2013 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days (22-28 September 2013), below-average precipitation was observed over Venezuela, west and central portions of Brazil, Northeast Argentina and southern Chile. • For 30 September - 6 October, below-average precipitation is predicted for central and southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for Southeast Brazil and portions of Bolivia and Peru.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over Venezuela, west and central portions of Brazil, Northeast Argentina and southern Chile.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most of Venezuela, Colombia, central Chile, and Brazil between 10S and 30S. Above-average precipitation was found along the east coast of Northeast Brazil and over Uruguay.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are slightly below average over the southern Amazon Basin and southern Brazil, and below average over the Brazilian Plateau.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are near average in most of the equatorial Pacific, and below average in the central equatorial Atlantic. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 21-27 September 2013, anomalously strong westerlies extended from northern Chile eastward to southern Brazil. Anomalous anticyclonic circulation centers (red “A”) were located over Bolivia and near 35S over the central South Atlantic. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion was found over Paraguay, northern Argentina and southern Brazil. Anomalous sinking motion was found over northwestern South America, the Amazon Basin, and most of Chile and southern Argentina. A A Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period 21-27 September 2013, below-average temperatures were observed over Chile, Argentina, eastern Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southwestern and southern Brazil. The average position of a cold front is indicated by the heavy black line in the right panel. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 30 Sep 2013– Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 30 Sep 2013– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (30 Sep – 6 Oct), below-average precipitation is predicted for central and southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for Southeast Brazil and portions of Bolivia and Peru. • For Days 8-14 (7-13 Oct), above-average precipitation is predicted for eastern Brazil, and below-average precipitation is predicted for Colombia, the western Amazon Basin, southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 16 Sep 2013 Valid for 23-29 Sep 2013 Forecast from 23 Sep 2013 Valid for 23-29 Sep 2013 Observed 22-28 Sep 2013

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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