Inputs from the PROMOTE/MACC projects

1. Inputs from the PROMOTE/MACC projects Laurence Rouïl (INERIS)

2. General Concept of the future GMES atmospheric services Model A Observations Model B Model C Météorologie Chimie (GeoMon, IAGOS…) Surf. continentales et océaniques Model D Régional Model Data assimilation Services Numerical models Global Model

3. Towards the GAS…. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 FP6 : GEMS (ECMWF) Global and regional Earth-system monitoring from in-situ and Satellite data « producer-driven » ESA GSE : PROMOTE1-2 (DLR) Protocol Monitoring for the Groud Segment Element Atmosphere« user-driven » MACC (ECMWF) Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate « user-producer partnership » Operational GAS Forum GMES (sept. 2008, Lille) User Forum for the Service « atmosphere» (dec. 2006, Brussels) Implementation Group of the GMES Atmospheric Service

4. What has been achievedwith PROMOTE • Service Level Agreement (SLA) signed with EEA for the provision of O3 and PM10 (tentatively) daily analysed maps • Combination of model simulation and observation using simple data assimilation techniques (optimal interpolation) • Use of NRT OzoneWeb data • O3 -> OK with the CHIMERE/PREV’AIR approach • PM -> still under development (consistency issues) • Forecast issues mot covered by the SLA but information available

5. Improvedrepresentation of air pollution patterns • Better diagnosis of air pollution episodes (PM especially) Cross-validation, French Stations, Summer 2006

6. MACC follow-up : NRT analyses and validateda posteriori analyses • Operational provision of NRT air quality maps on a daily/hourly basis • Operational provision of validated air quality assessment reports for Europe (re-analyses) • Option : air qulity forecast on a daily basis • Use of modelling, in-situ an satellite data, through the methodologies developed in MACC; ensemble approach • 6 models involved recognised for their skills : CHIMERE (F), EMEP (N), EURAD (D), LOTOS-EUROS (NL),MATCH (S), MOCAGE (F) • Strong interface with institutional users (EEA, national agencies) -> policy makers oriented products

7. Potential contribution to the SOER report • Analysis of specific pollution episodes that occurred in recent years (re-analysis capacity in MACC) • Accurate representation of air pollution patterns (combination of models and observations and ensemble approach) • Use of in-situ and satellite data (particularly interesting for long range events) -> validated data-sets • Focus on Ozone and PM

8. Example : PM episodes in spring 2007

10. Example : forestfires in summer 2007 FRP product (MSG/SEVIRI) used for estimating aerosol emissions. 25 km resolution model runs Cooperation with the FREEVAL project (M. Wooster, G. van der Werf, …). First test case for ensemble re-analyses in MACC 2007-08-25 12:05 26 August 10:00

11. What if scenarios …. • MACC includes a « policy-support » work package • Analysis of the determinant of air pollution episodes : local vs transboundary, sources analyses

12. PM10 concentration reduction (%) against the reference : alternating traffic (-47 ton/jr over 14O ton/jr PM10 emitted ) PM10 concentration reduction (%) against the reference : wood combustion suppressed (-753 ton/jr over 825 PM10 emitted) • Emergency scenarios (what if) • « Theoritical » example : 10th January 2009 ; CHIMERE runs

13. Conclusions • A new generation of products tested in PROMOTE/GEMS will become operational in MACC and in the GAS (2012) : high resolution monitoring, mapping and forecasting capacities at the European scale • Daily analyses, re-analyses of pollution events, emission reduction scenarios of general interest can be covered • Sensitive issues : NRT in-situ data, extended validated datasets, maturity of Earth Observation products • User-oriented approach (SLA, workshops) , especially for policy issues (DG ENV, EEA, JRC, EPAs…) • Contribution to the SOER report can be prepared : focus on specific ozone and PM episodes? Which year? Which indicators?

14. The GMES Atmospheric Service