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TROPICAL CYCLONE CONFERENCE 29 APR 2009 CAPT Bill Schulz US PACIFIC COMMAND

TROPICAL CYCLONE CONFERENCE 29 APR 2009 CAPT Bill Schulz US PACIFIC COMMAND. PACOM Mission and Organization Commander’s Intent:.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE CONFERENCE 29 APR 2009 CAPT Bill Schulz US PACIFIC COMMAND

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  1. TROPICAL CYCLONE CONFERENCE29 APR 2009CAPT Bill SchulzUS PACIFIC COMMAND UNCLASSIFIED

  2. PACOM Mission and OrganizationCommander’s Intent: • U.S. Pacific Command protects the homeland in concert with other U.S. government agencies, and promotes security and peaceful development in the Asia-Pacific with regional partners by deterring aggression, advancing regional cooperative security, responding to crises; and when directed, fight to win. UNCLASSIFIED

  3. PACOM Cyclone-Impacted Operations PACOM Natural Disasters and HA/DR • On going ops supporting Philippines • Operation ENDURING FREEDOM • Presence • Forward basing of USAF fighters and bombers • WESTPAC ship deployments • Forces in Korea, Okinawa • Reconnaissance • Cloud cover • Sea states • Long lead time to reposition some assets • Transportation • C-17 Air bridge, Maritime Logistics UNCLASSIFIED

  4. PACOM METOC Operations: TC Forecasting as a Theater Security Cooperation tool Theater Security Cooperation • India • India Air Force METOC exchange visit • Consultations with JTWC • Indonesia • NAVOCEANO ship visits • Hydrographic cooperation • Philippines • Surveys • METOC exchanges • Vietnam • METOC visits • Direct emails of JTWC warnings • NAVOCEANO Ship Visit • World Meteorological Organization • JTWC reps at conferences • Pacific Area Regional Campaign (Tropical Cyclone Research Sep 08 UNCLASSIFIED

  5. PACOM METOC Issues • Natural Disasters • Typhoons • Floods due to monsoon rains • Severe winters/food shortages • Earthquakes (One 7.0 or better every three weeks, one 8.0 every year on average) • Volcanoes (100+ active in AOR, ash threatens populations, air routes, sometimes military air transport) • Coordination with FNMOC, JTWC and PTWC on warning dissemination • Coordination with Dept. of State, FEMA, Dept. of Homeland Security on response to disasters • Situation Assessment Group/Operational Planning Teams – CRISIS PLANNING UNCLASSIFIED

  6. TIMEAccurate, long range forecast essential to efficient planning • Event timeline • Disaster happens or impending • Affected nation requests aid via US Embassy (0-2 days) • State Department vettes request (0 -3 days) • If yes: DoS or DoD? (0 – 1 day) • DoD: PACOM? TRANSCOM? (0-1 day) • Get it there yesterday (up to 7 days may have already passed) • COCOM Planning • Assessment, COA development, Orders/RFFs • Do we have confidence to begin positioning? • Deploy forces • Sasebo to Bangladesh by sea: 11 days • C17 Air bridge, Hickam to Philippines: 10 hours UNCLASSIFIED

  7. ACCURACYScoping the Problem • Which country? • Which airfields/ ports will be close but unaffected? • Staging an extra 25 miles out burns significant hours and fuel • Navigable waterways or harbor facilities impacted? • Effects • Rain • How much? Flooding? Mudslides? Areal extent? • Wind • When do crosswinds fall below 25 kts? 15 kts? • Storm surge • Areal extent • Depth These answers govern the amount and type of relief assets needed, or the type of assets that need to evade UNCLASSIFIED

  8. HA/DR and Logistic OpsStrategic Message C-17 HA/DR mission to China, Jan ‘08 • Effective US military tropical cyclone forecasting promotes • Operational efficiency • Safety • Confidence among our partners • Professional impression/warfighting competence UNCLASSIFIED

  9. Proposed Focus Areas • Cyclone structure – Planners still assume the symmetrical storm • Rainfall amounts • Storm surge • PACOM J3 memo to Joint Staff(Feb 09) • Position accuracy Your participation in the working sessions on Friday is critical! Desired outcome: Statement from MGPACOM to CNMOC/AFWA/Research Community calling for new operational forecast targets and parameters UNCLASSIFIED

  10. PACOM METOC • Questions/Action Items? Contact CDR Ron Shaw ronald.r.shaw@pacom.mil (808) 477 9449 UNCLASSIFIED

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