1 / 20

Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System

Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System. NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013. Outline. Global Circulation Model Output Assessing impacts to the hydroelectric system Mitigation Actions?. Global Climate Models.

rowa
Download Presentation

Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association ConferenceFebruary 20, 2013

  2. Outline • Global Circulation Model Output • Assessing impacts to the hydroelectric system • Mitigation Actions?

  3. Global Climate Models • Climate Impacts Group – University of Washington • Up to 20 climate models • At least 2 GHG scenarios • Downscaled for the NW • Two key outputs for our analysis: • Temperature changes • Altered natural river flows Can also model climate studies from other groups if data is available

  4. River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC) • Two key functions: • Vet natural flow and temperature data • Provide additional data required to run hydro studies • Flood control elevations • Hydro operating rule curves

  5. Precipitation Changes (~2030) No significant overall change Source: Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

  6. Temperature Changes (~2030) Expected higher temperatures Source: Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

  7. Temp and Precipitation Changes Precipitation can be higher or lower Temperature is always higher Source: Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

  8. Change in Natural Flows @ The Dalles (~2030) Source: Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

  9. CIG Forecast Changes • Runoff volume and river flow • Volume not likely to change significantly • Higher winter flows, lower summer flows • Temperature • More likely to increase than decrease • Median case 2.05 degrees 0F higher by 2030

  10. Outline • Global Circulation Model Output • Assessing impacts to the hydroelectric system • Dealing with climate uncertainty

  11. Temperature Effects on Demand ~2030(For illustration only)

  12. Changes to Regulated Outflow ~2030(For illustration only)

  13. Changes to Power Generation ~2030(For illustration only)

  14. Impacts to Power Generation ~2030(For illustration only)

  15. Outline • Global Circulation Model Output • Assessing impacts to the hydroelectric system • Mitigation Actions?

  16. Typical Reservoir Operations

  17. Potential Mitigating Actions(My opinion only – not endorsed by the Council) • Release more water in summer • Coordinate with Canada for additional summer releases • Refill in winter with anticipated additional rainfall • Develop better forecasting methods for fall and winter flows – the beauty of this approach is that hydro operations will be better regardless of whether we see future warming or cooling

  18. Potential Mitigating Operations

  19. Other Issues to Consider • Climate change adjusted streamflows come from one source only • Issue of frequency of extreme events is not well quantified • Current analysis assumes equal likelihood for all streamflows • Should apply weights based on longer records • Apply different weights for climate studies

More Related