The Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM)

1. The Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM) Kenneth L. Mitchell, Ph.D. Region 4 Modeler’s Workshop Atlanta, GA March, 2005

2. TRIM OAQPS Team... • TRIM.FaTE (and TRIM coordination) • Deirdre Murphy • TRIM.Expo-inhalation • Ted Palma • Harvey Richmond • John Langstaff • TRIM.Expo-ingestion • Scott Jenkins • TRIM.Risk • Terri Hollingsworth

3. What is TRIM? • A set of models for assessing exposure and risk for air pollutants (criteria pollutants and HAPs) • It is composed of 3 main “modules”: • Fate, Transport & Ecological Exposure (TRIM.FaTE) • Air pollutant distribution throughout an ecosystem into non-air media & biota • Human Exposure (TRIM.Expo) • Inhalation exposure • Ingestion exposure • Risk Characterization (TRIM.Risk) • Human health & ecological risk metrics 4 www.epa.gov/ttn/fera

4. Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM) for Air Pollutant Risk Assessment ----- AIR-only IMPACTS ---------------- ----- MULTI-MEDIA IMPACTS ----- AQ Model (CMAQ, ISC, etc) or AQ Data TRIM.FaTE (Fate, Transport & Ecological Exposure) FaTE Library Physical/chemical properties,algorithms, site-specific data, etc. Exposure Input Files (e.g., Activity data, population data, microenvironments, etc) Farm Food Chain {for epi-based assessment} TRIM.Expo (Human Exposure Event) HAPEM Ingestion Inhalation HH Criteria Pollutant Database Human health dose-, concentration-, and exposure-response functions TRIM.Risk (Risk Characterization) HH Tox Database human health dose-response assessment values (e.g., RfC, URE) Eco Tox Database Ecological effects assessment values HH Eco [Inhalation Risk] [Ingestion Risk] [Eco Risk] 5 Quantitative risk & exposure characterization, U/V, assumptions, limitations, …

5. What is TRIM development status? • Currently 1½ of the 3 modules are complete and posted on the web, with documentation • TRIM.FaTE –fully coupled, mass-balance multimedia model • TRIM.ExpoInhalation-activity-based human inhalation exposure model • Completion of TRIM.Risk projected for 2005 • Currently in testing phase • Completion of TRIM.ExpoIngestion and ingestion capability for TRIM.Risk projected for future • Delayed by funding breaks and TRIM.Risk refinements for ozone assessment

6. What are TRIM applications? • Inhalation Risk Assessments • Residual risk assessments (HAPs) – refined tier • Ozone NAAQS exposure and risk assessment (court-ordered schedule) • Lead NAAQS exposure and risk assessment (court-ordered schedule) • Ecological Risk Multimedia Assessments • Residual risk assessments (e.g., Hg, etc) • Ingestion Risk Assessments • Residual risk multimedia, multipathway assessments (e.g., Hg, dioxins, PAHs)

7. TRIM.Risk Capabilities Human Health • Human Health Inhalation Risk Assessment • Single or multi – chemical, source, facility, study area • Cancer risk and/or chronic hazard metrics • Individual and Population metrics • Variety of output formats • Tables, Distributions (e.g., box & whisker), Risk bin frequency charts, etc. • ---> ISC/monitoring +TRIM.ExpoInhalation +TRIM.Risk • or Modeling + HAPEM + TRIM.Risk or …

8. TRIM.Risk CapabilitiesEcological Risk • Ecological Risk Assessment • Single or multi – chemical • Multiple receptors (species) • Simple or elaborate TRIM.FaTE ecosystem scenarios • Hazard quotients (by species & location) based on • Media concentration • Dietary intake • Body burden • Variety of output formats • Tables, Distributions (e.g., box & whisker), Risk bin frequency charts, …  TRIM.FaTE+TRIM.Risk

9. Data Analysis & Visualization Engine • Provides added capabilities to TRIM.Risk • Works with any of the TRIM databases to create • Plots • Tables • Distributional analyses • Etc.

10. Types of Plots • Simple bar plot • Categorized bar plot (a stacked bar plot) • Simple scatter plot • Rank-order plot • Discrete-category plot (e.g., hazard quotients for each source type (on the x-axis) and each chemical (as different symbols)) • Box plot (a box at the 25th and 75th variables and whiskers to the 0th and 100th percentiles) • CDF plot (a cumulative distribution function (CDF) curve for each value of the dependent variable) • Tornado plot (a flipped bar plot with values for the dependent variable along the x axis) • Time Series plot • Histogram plot • Percentile plot (percentitles specified by the user for each of the dependent variables’)

11. Why did we develop TRIM? • Risk assessment tools were needed for risk-based HAP program • In developing those tools, we considered 1994 NAS and 1997 CRARM recommendations and Agency policy/guidance by designing: • Consistent analytical framework for refined community and urban area exposure analyses for criteria pollutants and HAPs • A tool for multiple pollutant assessments • Capability to address exposure variability and uncertainty • A tool for iterative analyses, easily moving, as needed, from simpler assumptions to more detailed analyses • Capability for improved risk characterization (population & individual risk) • A mass balance based multimedia model • As a result, TRIM is responsive to 2004 NAS recommendations and provides tools not otherwise available

12. What are future TRIM uses? • NATA National Scale Assessment (TRIM.Risk w. ASPEN & HAPEM) • Future CO and PM exposure and risk analyses • Integrated HAP and criteria pollutant assessments • Etc.

13. What are next steps for TRIM?(beyond completing remaining models) • Preparing for new types of applications (e.g., new inputs) • Augment human health Toxicity Database with ozone response functions and risk outputs • Expand TRIM.FaTE data/algorithm library to Pb • Develop TRIM.FaTE “screening level” scenario • Model refinements • Expand TRIM.Risk per NAAQS needs • Performance of applications (ozone, Pb, residual risk, etc) • Maintenance & evaluation • Updates to human health and Toxicity databases, TRIM.FaTE library • Completion & posting of TRIM.FaTE test case documents (Hg, dioxins, residual risk scenario) • Update TRIM.Risk residency table

14. www.epa.gov/ttn/fera