Racial & Ethnic Politics Semester Project Guide

1. Racial & Ethnic Politics Semester Project Guide

2. Accessing Project Files All project files can be found on the class website. • www.lmu.edu/csla • Click on “Classes” link on left panel • Use LMU login

3. Purpose of Project Does ethnicity, race and gender play a part in how Angelenos vote? How?

4. Methodology Research Design Sampling Data Collection Data Processing Data Analysis

5. Research Design & Sampling This Semester Project + 2008 Presidential Election Exit Poll 2010 Gubernatorial Election Exit Poll 2012 Presidential Election Exit Poll

6. Data Collection & Processing November 6, 2012 Presidential Election Exit Poll

7. Data Analysis What: 2008, 2010, and 2012 Exit Poll Questions & Demographic Categories How: Project, Presentations, & Final Paper

8. Launchpad for Project • Did ethnicity, race and/or gender play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against Governor Brown and President Obama in 2008, 2010, and in 2012? • If so, how?

9. In a Nutshell • Look at past exit poll data • Perform trend analysis in your team and on your own • Make a prediction about 2012 election • Participate in exit poll • Assess your 2012 prediction • Present in a group about how LA votes

10. Easy Like Sunday Morning. *For the pop culture challenged that’s Lionel Richie and he wrote a song called “Easy” with The Commodores.

11. In Depth Project Overview • Select Teams • Choose Variables • Create Task List • Create Annotated Bibliography • Visually Represent Poll Data • Make a Prediction • Collect 2012 Poll Data • Assess Prediction • Outline Presentation • Present with Your Team

12. Teams • African American • Asian American • Latino • White • Gender

13. Scope of Data Available Since 2012 poll data hasn’t been collected yet, you will be analyzing the following data before the November 6 election: • 2008 Presidential Election Exit Poll • 2010 Gubernatorial Election Exit Poll

14. Dependent Variable • Did ethnicity, race and/or gender play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against Governor Brown and President Obama in 2008 and 2010? • In other words, did x vote for or against y in 2008 and 2010 • Ethnic group or Gender = x • President Obama or Governor Brown = y

15. Independent Variables Using 2008, 2010, and 2012 data each team will look at : • Ethnicity or Gender • Income • Education • Individual Demographic Variable • Individual Voter Opinion Variable

16. Variables Explored in Teams You will explore the following independent variables for 2008 and 2010 in your presentation teams Did x vote for or against y in 2008 and 2010 relative to each of these variables?

17. Team Variables • Ethnicity or Gender • Cumulative opinion of group • Income • Group opinion based on income • Education • Group opinion based on education

18. Variables Explored Individually You will explore the following independent variables individually for 2008 and 2010. Did x vote for or against y in 2008 and 2010 relative to each of these variables?

19. Individual Variables • Demographic Variable • Additional demographic variable, e.g. political party, age, religion, etc. • Voter Opinion Variable • Specific opinion question from survey, i.e. whom or what they voted for or against, e.g. other candidates, propositions, and measures

20. Data Analysis Requirements You will create crosstabs with your team and individual variables. • 3 team crosstabs per year = 6 crosstabs • 2 individual crosstabs per year = 4 crosstabs • As a group = 20 crosstabs total

21. Crosstabs Visualized Data

22. Create a Task List Divide and conquer this project. Due next week: using the semester project guide and this presentation, draft a task list organized by: • Deadlines • Scheduling meeting times with team • Scheduling meeting times with me

23. Annotated Bibliography Bibliographical data with a short description of the content. At least 9 references: • 3 team references, corresponding to team variables • 6 individual references • 2 for demographic variable for 2008-2010 • 2 for 2008 public opinion variable • 2 for 2010 public opinion variable

24. Visualizing Exit Poll Data 2008 and 2010 data will be available next week, in SPSS format. In the meantime, research your team and individual variables and work on your annotated bibliography. Here’s an intro to SPSS and why you’ll have to schedule a time to meet with me after next week to work on visualizations.

26. SPSS “Statistical Package for the Social Sciences” • Acronym obsolete, just “SPSS” now • Powerful data analysis tool • Will generate crosstabs from large datasets

27. SPSS Crosstabs

28. How to Make Crosstabs with SPSS

29. Making a Prediction Using annotated bibliography data and visualizations, make a prediction about the 2012 election.

30. In Other Words… • Did ethnicity, race and/or gender play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against President Obama in 2012? • If so, how?

31. November 6, 2012 Presidential Election Exit Poll!

32. Assess Your Prediction • Was your prediction accurate? • What external factors influenced the election?

33. Group Presentation Outline • One introductory slide • Three group slides corresponding to the three group variables • Ten slides, two per individually chosen demographic and exit poll question variable • One conclusion slide • GREATEST HITS ONLY

34. Group Presentations Based on your joint research, provide a detailed, succinct, and brief overview of the ethnic vote in Los Angeles in 2012, using the above outline as a guide and limited to 15 slides.

35. Easy Like Sunday Morning. *For the pop culture challenged that’s Lionel Richie and he wrote a song called “Easy” with The Commodores.

36. Questions berto.solis@lmu.edu 310-338-4565 Office Hours: Thursdays 1-5pm UH 4119 @LMU_CSLA