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Roger Derrien Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P Lucent Technologies

Roger Derrien Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P Lucent Technologies. What are our end-users expecting?. Is it UMTS? What’s that! Is it cdma2000? Could be but I don’t know what that is either. Is it harmonization? Maybe but what are we harmonizing.

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Roger Derrien Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P Lucent Technologies

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  1. Roger Derrien Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P Lucent Technologies

  2. What are our end-users expecting?

  3. Is it UMTS? What’s that! Is it cdma2000? Could be but I don’t know what that is either. Is it harmonization? Maybe but what are we harmonizing. Is it cheap, high speed, reliable service with killer applications? Yes, most definitely!!

  4. Wireless Usage Will Soar Rapidly declining costs per MOU and new services will drive subscriber growth and usage [Source: Merrill Lynch]

  5. Wireless Market Perspective Early 80’s: How many cars need a telephone? Late 90’s: How many people need a telephone? ‘99CW 50% _ 40%_ 30%_ 20%_ 10%_ 0% _ Did not anticipate ??? ‘98CW % Penetration Did not anticipate pre-paid ‘97 CW ‘94 CW ‘92 Conventional Wisdom Did not anticipate portable phone. Premium Service Time Wireless market consistently underestimated because of unanticipated market changes.

  6. Through an evolution of: • Applications - internet, location based services and transaction based applications over WAP will drive demand How do we take them there? • Markets - operators need to determine what type of role they want to play in wireless data and what market segments to go after • Networks - today’s networks are data capable. Operators need to start there migration today to keep up with the future network demands of tomorrow.

  7. Internet and Mobile Subscriber Penetration - 2004 Source: ARC Group 09 February, 2000

  8. Integrated Messaging Multimedia WWW Data rates assume lightly loaded packet channel. Optimized media access control necessary to assure adequate response time in high usage case. Remote Office Web Clipping Large File Transfer Wireless Postcard Video/ Multimedia Conference E-Banking/ E-Commerce Networked computing Interactive Games & Entertainment Fax Limited Broadcast Video 14.4 Kbps 44-64 Kbps 384 Kbps 2 Mbps 9.6 Kbps <9.6 Kbps 144 Kbps Data Rate Data Rates for Wireless Services Short Message Services Mass Market Demand (5 year view) Credit Card Verification 30

  9. Where The Internet And Mobility Intersect Today’s communications are via multiple devices with the dependence on interfacing with intranets for timely business information Internet Mobility • 2.5G & 3G enables personalization and integration • Individualized services across multiple networks • Seamless personal service delivery • Online, anywhere, anytime -- always on • m - commerce

  10. People to People People to Things Things to Things ... $ Communications Network Transformation Appliances Homes Buildings Computers Transportation Vehicles & Systems People Intelligent Subscriber Devices Vending Machines • Multiple Connections per Person • Networking Embedded in Household and Business Devices • Full Time, “Always On” Connectivity, At Home, At Work, and On the Go: • Wireline: Fixed Broadband for Business, Entertainment & High End Applications • Wireless: Mobility for Convenience & Portability • Converged Services available via multiple forms of access.

  11. North America Cdma2000 & UWC-136 ANSI-41/ WIN TIA TR 45 Europe UTRA GSM-MAP / CAMEL ETSI Asia/ Pacific Cdma2000 & DoCoMo WCDMA ANSI-41 / WIN & GSM-MAP/CAMEL ARIB & TTC Influences on IMT-2000 “Family of Systems” A “Family of Systems” for IMT-2000 services, ensuring network standards interoperability.

  12. Source: Ovum Research Published: Mobile Communications International GSM Network Options 1998 1999 2001 2003 HSCD UMTS EDGE GSM GPRS No UMTS 3X cdmaOne IS-95A 1X No 3X Network Options for GSM & cdmaOne Data Evolution per Ovum Research cdmaOne Network Options 1998 1999 2000 2001 IS-95B

  13. New Software New Circuit Packs New Mobiles Existing Mobiles Still Compatible New Software New BS Modules New Mobiles Existing Mobiles Still Compatible New Software Changes to BS and Mobile New Spectrum New Air Interface New Mobiles Backward Compatibility with GSM-MAP New HW and/or SW New Mobiles/Data Device Utilize Existing Voice Channels New BS & SW New Mobiles/Data Device Utilize Existing Voice Channels IMT-2000 Evolution Path Options 2G 2.5G 3G/ IMT-2000 Services Existing Spectrum ANSI-41 CDG ANSI-95 IS-95B cdma2000 Phase 1 1.25MHz cdma2000 Phase 2 5MHz IS-95A 3G NNI Existing Spectrum New Spectrum GSM N. America GSM 1900 GPRS ETSI W-CDMA GSM MOU GSM EDGE GSM900,1800 GPRS

  14. Summary • It’s critical that we do not get consumed by the technology but stay focused on the END-USER needs • DoCoMo has shown us all that the issue is not access but providing key marketable applications to the end-user • Even with all the efforts of the OHG there are still at least 3 distinct paths in supporting an evolution to IMT - 2000 • Existing cdmaOne operators should deploy a 1XRTT solution migrating to 3G3X (CDMA2000) • Existing GSM operators will migrate to GPRS/EDGE migrating to UMTS through the purchase of new spectrum • Existing TDMA operators will follow a similar path as GSM stopping at EDGE • Bottom line is that migration to a digital wireless network should begin “TODAY” regardless of the access network that you are operating

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