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IREM Forecast

IREM Forecast. The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University. January 26, 2011. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP

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IREM Forecast

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  1. IREM Forecast The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University January 26, 2011

  2. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough (2009 Recession has 6th Q added from GI Forecast) Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

  3. Quarterly GDP Revisions: Global Insight *Projected **Actual

  4. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2013 % Forecast > > > > > > > 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Global Insight

  5. U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2007 – December 2009 Ranked by Size in 2010 Total - 8,363,000 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  6. U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2009 – December 2010 Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total = 1,124 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  7. U.S. Unemployment Rate % 9.4 % • GI Fcst • 9.6 • 9.5 • 8.9 • 8.2 • 7.5 • 6.9 Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

  8. Consumer Confidence 100 Expectations Present Situation Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  9. Interest Rates 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > >

  10. Consumer Prices 2001 - 2015 % Forecast > > > > > > Source: BLS, Global Insight

  11. Oil Prices$ per barrel $/barrel Forecast > > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight

  12. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Forecast > > > > > Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  13. The Washington Economy

  14. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

  15. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  16. Job Change by SectorNov 2009 – Nov 2010Washington MSA Total 49,200 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  17. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Nov 09 – Nov 10 (000s) Washington + 49,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  18. Unemployment Rate 10.2 – DC 9.3 – U.S. 6.3 – SMD 6.0 – MSA 4.8 - NVA Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

  19. Economic Forecast

  20. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

  21. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  22. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  23. policy-cra.gmu.org

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