Study on CC Impact in China

1. Study on CC Impact in China Lu Xuedu Ministry of Science and Technology of China June 18, 2004 UNFCCC SB-20 Bonn, Germany

2. Outline I. Methods on CC Impact StudyII. Uncertainties III. Consideration in further

3. Methods on CC Impact Study Methods for assessing climate change impacts can be divided into two main parts: 1. methods assessing the past impact: Using the indicative indicators of ecosystems to assess how the past climate would affect the ecosystems. 2. methods assessing the future impacts: Four main methods: experiment, modeling with experience in coupling with bio-physical processing module, analogical analysis, and expert judgment.

4. Methods on CC Impact Study Steps for future impact assessment: lIdentifying the purpose, issues, scopes, areas, and data for assessment, lSelecting the assessment methods, l Verifying the methods by using data and survey information, and sensitive analysis, l Establishing the climate, and social and economic development scenarios,

5. Methods on CC Impact Study Steps for future impact assessment (continued): l Assessing the impacts of climate change on the bio-physics and social and development, l Assessing the adaptation policies, measures and strategies in response to the impacts, lAnalyzing the uncertainties and risks, and l Evaluating the effects of the policies, measures and strategies

6. Methods on CC Impact Study lIn agricultural sector: PRECIS regional model (50 km×50km) developed by Hadley and then modified to adapt to China circumstances, in coupling with improved CERES model. The models require the data of soil, crop varieties and their characters, measured productions of crops, and the field experiments. lForestry and Ecosystem: PRECIS regional model (50 km×50km) developed by Hadley and modified to adapt to China circumstances, in coupling with bio-geo-chemical model(CENTURE, CEVSA).

7. Methods on CC Impact Study lWater resources: GCMs model in coupling with VIC model lFor the climate change impact on other sectors, the assessment methods include: comparison analysis, modeling, statistics, mechanism modeling, and some others.

8. Uncertainties Large uncertainties exist from: 1. methods and models that may amplify the uncertainties; 2. future climate scenarios as inputs of models, leading to uncertainties of the results of the models, 3. future social and economic development scenarios. These uncertainties would make policy-makers be more cautious when formulating and implementing the policies and measures for addressing the impacts and vulnerability of climate change.

9. Uncertainties Methods to reduce uncertainties: 1. improving the understanding on the process of the climate change impacts on social, economic and ecological system; 2. improving models for assessment, including the models for projection of climate scenarios, and social and economic development scenarios; 3. developing integrated assessment model. Such model is still at conceptual stage or early development stage,which will highly rely on the scientific progress in the interrelationship between climate and other ecological, social and economic system, and the clear understanding on the atmospheric physical process.

10. Consideration in further Consideration by SASTA: 1. To promote the research and development of the analysis tools and methods, including the integrated assessment model, in particular at the regional level, and 2. To promote the application of such tools and methods for developing countries, so as to obtain soundly scientific conclusions as a robust basis for policymaking.

11. Thank You! LU Xuedu Ministry of Science and Technology of China(MOST) 15 B Fuxing Road, Beijing, 100862, China FAX :86-10-5888-1441 TEL:86-10-5888-1436 Email: lvxd@mail.most.gov.cn