1 / 36

China Planning Network: Urban Transportation Roundtable

China Planning Network: Urban Transportation Roundtable. June 18, 2009 Beijing. Using Urban Information Systems to Relate Travel Demand to Urban Form Prof. Joseph Ferreira, Jr. Head, Urban Information Systems MIT Urban Studies & Planning Department. Talk Outline.

rufin
Download Presentation

China Planning Network: Urban Transportation Roundtable

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. China Planning Network: Urban Transportation Roundtable June 18, 2009 Beijing Using Urban Information Systems to Relate Travel Demand to Urban Form Prof. Joseph Ferreira, Jr. Head, Urban Information Systems MIT Urban Studies & Planning Department

  2. Talk Outline • Challenge: managing metro growth • Urbanization & motorization pressure • Unsustainable energy and green-house gas implications • Growth management especially important in China • Opportunity: new tools for ‘responsive’ cities • Measure (in)efficiency of metro growth • Take advantage of new spatial data infrastructure • Example: Metro-Boston growth management • Quantify impact of growth management scenarios • Utilize administrative data • Be sensitive to neighborhood scale • Evaluate benefits of efficient urban form and cost of environmental externalities CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  3. Challenge: Managing Metro Growth • Urbanization & motorization pressure • Rapid motorization: 1000 new cars per day in Beijing • No end in sight • Millions yet to come to cities • Wrong price incentives and weak political will • Unsustainable energy and green-house gas implications • Inefficient urban form and travel patterns due to unpriced externalities • Significant global impact CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  4. Opportunity:New Tools for ‘Responsive’ Cities • Measure (in)efficiency of metro growth • Address unpriced externalities • Make cities ‘responsive’ not rigidly regulated • Take advantage of new spatial data infrastructure • Administrative data now includes location • GIS data layers: roads, buildings, property boundaries… • Transaction info: Transit fare cards, congestion charges, cellphone use… • Build urban models from administrative data • Avoid need for expensive surveys • Enable improved monitoring and discrete choice modeling • Accelerate responsiveness of urban planning • Requires new tools and safeguards • Next-generation urban models (distributed, modular, activity-based) • Locational privacy and anonymized data CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  5. Example: Metro-Boston Growth Management • Illustrate ideas with straightforward example • Class projects work with State and Metro planning agencies • Quantify impact of growth management scenarios • Examine spatial relationships: travel, urban form, and demographics • Extrapolate travel impacts of alternative growth scenarios • Utilize administrative data and official plans • Land use, transportation infrastructure, demographics • Urban activity and travel behavior • Metro growth scenarios and new integrated data layers CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  6. Metro-Boston Regional Planning Key Agencies • State Agencies • EOEEA: Exec. Office of Energy & Environmental Affairs • MassGIS State GIS agency: • ‘Climate Roadmap’ effort: CO2 consequences of urban growth • Registry of Motor Vehicles • Vehicles registration, licensing, and safety inspection records • Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) • Regional planning agency • part of Boston Metro Planning Organization (MPO) • 101 member Municipalities (out of 164 in metro region) • MetroFuture - ongoing regional planning for 2030 • Central Transportation Planning Staff (CTPS) • Transportation planning part of Boston MPO • Transportation and policy analysis support for Metro Boston • Journey to work and travel time data by traffic analysis zone (TAZ) CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  7. Metro Boston United States  Massachusetts  Boston Metro 164 municipalities (with local land use control) CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  8. MetroFuture Growth Areas, 2000-2030 CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  9. Class Project Examples • Collaborate with MAPC and MassGIS • Spring 2008 and 2009 class projects (1/2 semester) • Estimate • VMT (vehicle miles traveled) implications of MAPC growth scenarios • How much extra travel if Boston growth is ‘compact’ vs. ‘sprawl’ • VMT relationship to urban form, neighborhood demographics, and accessibility • Illustrate use of improved GIS and administrative data • Detailed population and business locations • Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from safety inspections CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  10. Class projects with MAPC and MassGISHalf-semester projects in Advanced GIS class Spring 2008 project: • Estimate non-work travel implications of Alternative MetroFuture Growth Scenarios • PhD and MCP students on project: Wanli Fang, Paul Green, Lissa Harris, Shan Jiang, Masayoshi Oka, Abner Oliveira, Yi Zhu • Project co-supervision with Dr. Fabio Carrera Spring 2009 project: • Examine spatial pattern of VMT across Boston • PhD and MCP students on project: Andrew Gulbrandson, Casey Hunter, Yang Jiang, Jae Seung Lee, Jingsi Xu, Lulu Xue, and Jiyang Zhang • Lab assistance from Mi Diao (advanced PhD student) Most maps shown below are from student work CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  11. MetroFuture Growth Areas, 2000-2030 CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  12. ‘Let It Be’ Scenario ‘Winds of Change’ Scenario Source: MAPC model and MIT 11.521 Project Work (Spring 2008) MetroFuture Forecast for New Housing Demand 2005 - 2030 (by TAZ) +348505 +307476 CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  13. New Grid Layer from MassGIS • Integrate spatially detailed data about • Residences, jobs, businesses • Geography, land use and infrastructure • Private passenger VMT by place of residence • Onto new 250x250 meter grid cell raster • 125K cells for metro Boston • Overlay GIS layers to allocate census population, businesses, employment, and VMT to grid cells CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  14. Mass GIS Allocation of Population to 250x260m Grid Cells …near 2nd ring road, 40 km from Boston CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  15. Business Locations …with Euclidean Distance from Grocery Stores to Grid Cells CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  16. New VMT Estimates from Safety Inspection Data • Mandatory annual safety inspection • All private passenger autos (5 million in state) • Odometer mileage reported to RMV since 2001 • Estimate annual mileage (VMT) of every vehicle • Geocode every auto to place of residence • Estimate annual mileage from 2+ inspections • Allocate mileage to 250x250m grid cell CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  17. Geocode Vehicles to Residential addressand allocateannual mileage to grid cell • Sources: • MassGIS estimates of annual mileage developed from Registry of Motor Vehicles safety inspection and vehicle registration data • Maps developed by MIT 11.521 class project (Spring 2009) CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  18. Spring 2008 Class Project Use new Data to Analyze MetroFuture scenarios • Estimate non-work VMT patterns for current households • Residences from Census and land use data • Destinations from job and business location data • Non-work travel from proximity calculations • Get housing growth locations from MetroFuture scenarios • Let-It-Be (LIB) scenario - business as usual • Wind-of-Change (WOC) scenario - corridor and activity center emphasis • Further details • Assume new growth has VMT behavior of current residents • Account for 16 types of housing + development constraints, etc. CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  19. ‘Let It Be’ Scenario ‘Winds of Change’ Scenario Source: MAPC model and MIT 11.521 Project Work (Spring 2008) New Demand for Housing by 2030 (by TAZ) +348505 +307476 CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  20. Source: MIT 11.521 Project Work (Spring 2008) In-Accessibility of non-Work Destinations • Each cell in the grid has a value representative of the total meters traveled one-way for an “average” (non-work)trip for a single household. • Non-Work VMT = Average Non work trip distance (tripmerge) * No of households (hshlds_250m) * 4.18 trips/household CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  21. Source: MIT 11.521 Project Work (Spring 2008) Visualization of Accessibility to Non-Work Destinations Darker colors have higher accessibility (with closer non-work destinations) CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  22. Scenario Differences in Estimated VMT CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  23. Lessons from Spring 2008 Class Project • Location of growth can have big impact on non-work travel • Scenario analysis is plausible as two month project • If administrative data, derived GIS layers, and MAPC scenarios are in place • Results are easily explained and accepted CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  24. Spring 2009 Class Project • Next step - look at total travel impact of growth scenarios • Not just non-work travel • Examine actual VMT for every private passenger vehicle in the state for 2005-2008 • 6+ million records from safety inspection data • Visualize and explain VMT variations across metro area CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  25. Geocode Vehicles to Residential addressand allocateannual mileage to grid cell • Sources: • MassGIS estimates of annual mileage developed from Registry of Motor Vehicles safety inspection and vehicle registration data • Maps developed by MIT 11.521 class project (Spring 2009) CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  26. Spatial Pattern in Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) by 250x250m grid cell …per Vehicle or …per Household Red = low VMT Blue = high VMT Sources: MIT 11.521 project analysis of MassGIS and RMV data CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  27. Annual VMT per Vehicle MIT 11.521 class project work Spring 2009 Annual VMT per Household Annual VMT by Location (250x250m grid cell) CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  28. Demographics Indicators for Metro-Boston Census Block Groups • Thematic maps of: • Household % with kids • Household income • Moved in 45 years (%) • Tenure (% that rent) • etc…. MIT 11.521 class project Spring 2009 CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  29. Factor 1: Income and Vehicles Factor 2: Non-standard Families Factor 3: Number of Workers Combine Demographic Indices using Factor Analysis into 3 Primary Factors: MIT 11.521 class project Spring 2009 CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  30. Accessibility Indicators Example: Number of jobs accessible in 30 minutes (Shaded TAZ are within 30 minutes by auto from central location near MIT) MIT 11.521 class project Spring 2009 CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  31. Land Use and Urban Form Measures …Use Factor Analysis to build urban form indicators CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009 MIT 11.521 class project Spring 2009

  32. Build VMT Model from Factors VMT [for each 250x250m grid cell] = Function of • Demographic factors • Accessibility factors • Urban Form factors Simple weighted linear regression explains almost 50% of grid cell variation in actual annual mileage. CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  33. Conclusions from Spring 2009 Project • Big differences between city and suburb • Twice the total annual mileage (per household) in the suburbs • Interesting Income effects • Higher income  lower VMT per vehicles (but more vehicles) • Higher income  much higher VMT per household • Significant demographics, accessibility and urban form effects • Explain 50% of VMT variation across 250x250m grid cells • Non-work accessibility matters • Additional neighborhood variations • Less VMT along transportation corridors & activity centers • Less VMT in mixed use areas • Next step – repeat LIB and WOC comparison • estimate regional benefit of compact development in total VMT CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  34. General Conclusions • New Tools for ‘Responsive’ Cities • Make cities ‘responsive’ not rigidly regulated • Modern urban information infrastructure can • Accelerate pace of evaluation and response: • Enable self-governance through better measurement of urban form externalities • Scenario analysis is plausible as two month project • If administrative data, derived GIS layers, and MAPC scenarios are in place • Results are easily explained and accepted CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  35. General Conclusions (Part 2) Take advantage of new spatial data infrastructure • Administrative data now includes location • GIS data layers: roads, buildings, property boundaries… • Transaction info: Transit fare cards, congestion charges, cellphone use… • Build urban models from administrative data • Avoid need for expensive surveys • Enable improved monitoring and discrete choice modeling • Accelerate responsiveness of urban planning • Invest in new tools and safeguards • Next-generation urban models (distributed, modular, activity-based) • Locational privacy and anonymized data CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

  36. Additional Links • MIT Department of Urban Studies & Planning • Department of Urban Studies & Planning (DUSP): http://dusp.mit.edu • Urban Information Systems (UIS): http://mit.edu/dusp/uis • MassGIS: http://www.mass.gov/mgis • MAPC: http://mapc.org • Related GIS infrastructure sites: • Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC): http://www.opengeospatial.org • Urban and Regional Information Systems Association (URISA): http://www.urisa.org Thank you – Joe Ferreira, jf@mit.edu谢谢！ CPN09: Urban Transport Roundtable - Joe Ferreira - June 18, 2009

More Related