Climate Change & Agriculture in Uzbekistan

1. Climate Change & Agriculturein Uzbekistan Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop May 19, 2010 Tashkent Dr. William R. Sutton Senior Agricultural Economist Europe & Central Asia Region The World Bank

3. Why Should You Care about Climate Change? Climate change is already happening in Uzbekistan Climate change in Uzbekistan will accelerate in the future “Business as usual” approach will have negative impacts for agriculture Now is the time to start developing and implementing adaptation responses

4. Uzbekistan’s Climate Is Already Changing Source: www.climatewiz.org

5. Increasing Frequency and Severity of Extreme Events • Uzbekistan’s climate is highly variable from month to month and year to year • Frequency and severity of extreme events shows an increasing trend, especially high temperature days. • Number of Days with Maximum Temperatures Higher than 38oC

6. The Adaptation Deficit • The productivity gap between potential yields and actual yields is significant for Uzbekistan • Countries/regions that have opportunities to benefit from climate change are poorly positioned to do so Mean Yields in Uzbekistan and China for Cotton Seed and Wheat: 1992-2008 Wheat Yield Potential Above 7t/ha Source: www.faostat.fao.org

7. Why Should You Care About Climate Change? Climate change in Uzbekistan will Accelerate in the Future

8. Temperatures are Projected to Increase Significantly

9. Precipitation is Projected to Increase Moderately

10. Aridity is Projected to Increase Significantly Summer Temperatures Summer Precipitation

11. Why Should You Care About Climate Change? “Business as usual” will result in missed opportunities and negative impacts for agriculture

12. Uzbekistan Is Vulnerable on a Number of Fronts Uzbekistan’s climate change vulnerability exceeds the ECA region average for a number of factors Sources: World Development Indicators 2008; FAO AGL 2005; Baettig, M. et al., 2007., ECA Databank.

13. Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Reducing Sensitivity Are Critical to Reducing Vulnerability Source: Fay and Patel, 2008.

14. Some Agro-ecological Zones and Production Systems Are More Vulnerable than Others • Countrywide • More risk for agricultural production, and increased moisture deficits, especially during summer. • Increased risk of heatwaves, drought and other extreme events • Longer growing season could provide new crop opportunities in suitable areas.

15. Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) Climate Change Implications • Desert and Steppe AEZ • Reduced crop and livestock productivity • Increased risk of aridity, desertification and salinization • Increased risk of heatwaves, drought and water scarcity

16. AEZ Climate Change Implications • Piedmont AEZ • Longer growing season could provide new crop opportunities • Reduced crop and livestock productivity, especially over summer • Increased risk of frosts on early flowering perennials • Increased risk of aridity, desertification and salinization

17. AEZ Climate Change Implications • Highland AEZ • Longer growing season could increase pasture productivity. • Increased risk of agricultural pests, diseases and weeds. • Increased rate and change in timing of snow melt, leading to different stream flow regimes in the lower catchment

18. Wheat Yields are Projected to Decline, whilst Results for Maize Yields are Mixed Source: Fischer, G., et.al. 2007.

19. No Adaptation = Reduced Water for Irrigation • Agriculture ≥ 90% of water withdrawals • With no adaption, water demand will increase, secured supplies will decrease • Result = 500% increase in projected water deficit by 2050 • Opportunities for substantial improvements in water use efficiency Source: Adapted from Centre of Hydrometeorological Service, Cabinet of Ministers, 2008. Second National Communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Tashkent

20. Why Should You Care about Climate Change? Now is the time to start developing and implementing adaptation responses

21. Initial Steps Already Taken, But More to Do First National Communication, 1999; Second National Communication, 2008; Uzhydromet Study: Climate Change and its Impact on Hydrometeorological Processes, Agro-Climatic and Water Resources, 2007. Uzbekistan needs a consolidated strategy and a comprehensive action plan to meet the climate challenges facing the crop and livestock sectors .

22. There is Increasing Global Focus on the Development of National Adaptation Strategies Uzbekistan is a party to Article 4 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that stipulates: “All Parties shall formulate and implement measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change” The 2008 Second National Communication of Uzbekistan to the UNFCCC highlights: “Vulnerability assessment and selection of adaptation measures for the agroindustrial complex is of a specific importance for food security” establish a cross-ministerial or cross-sectorial council for adaptation to climate change

23. Adaptation has Long Investment Horizons – Action is Needed Now Transformation of landuse or distribution change New products such as ecosystem services Increasing complexity, cost and risk Climate ready germplasm, index insurance irrigation infrastructure, hydromet services farm subsidy and water pricing reform Benefit from adaptation Varieties, planting times, spacing, livestock vaccination, tillage practices, water and nutrient management Climate change Source: Adapted from: Howden et al. 2007.

24. Why Should You Care about Climate Change? Uzbekistan is one of most vulnerable countries to climate change in the Europe and Central Asia Region Climate variability and change are already impacting Uzbekistan and will accelerate in the future Business as usual approach will result in missed opportunities and negative impacts for agriculture Now is the time to start developing and implementing adaptation responses Focus on “win-win” or “no regrets” solutions, and mitigation opportunities The World Bank has a program to support you in this

25. Thank You!