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Climate Change and Agriculture

Climate Change and Agriculture. 2009 Opinion Survey. Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, Chicago The earth is warming 90% Human activity a significant factor 80% Response: 3,146 of 10,257 polled Earth scientists Source: Wikipedia. 2007 Opinion Survey.

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Climate Change and Agriculture

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  1. Climate ChangeandAgriculture

  2. 2009 Opinion Survey Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, Chicago The earth is warming 90% Human activity a significant factor 80% Response: 3,146 of 10,257 polled Earth scientists Source: Wikipedia

  3. 2007 Opinion Survey Harris Interactive The earth is warming 97% Human activity a significant factor 84% 489 members of the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Society. Source: Wikipedia

  4. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data

  5. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Adaptation Mitigation

  6. Climate Change -- Adaptation Efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change will have little effect over the next 50 years.  Changes during this period have already been set in motion by past greenhouse gas emissions.

  7. Iowa Temperature-related Changes • Longer frost-free period (high) • Higher average winter temperatures, both daily maximum and daily minimum (high) • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) • Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in longterm (medium) • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) • More freeze-thaw cycles (high) • Increased temperature variability (high)

  8. Iowa Precipitation-related Changes • More (~10%) precipitation annually and during the growing season (medium) • Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier or little change in summers) (high) • More water-logging of soils (medium) • More variability of summer precipitation (high) • More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) • Higher episodic streamflow (medium) • Longer periods without rain (medium) • Higher absolute humidity (high) • Stronger storm systems (medium) • Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in long run(medium) • More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)

  9. Iowa Other Changes • Reduced wind speeds (high) • Reduced solar radiation (medium) • Increased tropospheric ozone (high) • Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high) • Faster plant growth and development to maturity (high) • Weeds and vines grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high) • Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high) • Plants have increased water-use efficiency (high) • Combinations of conditions and pathogens more favorable for development of toxins (medium)

  10. Climate Change -- Mitigation Limiting greenhouse gas emissions now will only affect climate change in the long-term (beyond 50 years).

  11. Global Warming Potentials &Atmospheric Lifetimes (years). Atmospheric Lifetime GWP* Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 50-200 1 Methane (CH4) 12 21 Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 114 289 Other 1-50,000 5-22,800 * Global warming potential over 100 year lifetime. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 Report.

  12. Greenhouse Gas Emissions fromHuman Activity by Type, 2001 * Gas Percent Carbon Dioxide 84 Methane 9 Nitrous Oxide 5 All Others 2 Total 100 * Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U. S. 2001

  13. Agriculture GG Emissions

  14. Agriculture GG Emissions

  15. Price on Greenhouse Gases Cap and Trade • Limits Emissions Carbon Tax • Limits Economic Impact

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