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Immigration and the Irish Labour Market

Immigration and the Irish Labour Market. Brian McCormick FAS. Overview. Economic and Labour Market Background Migration Trends Impact of Migration on the Economy Medium-Term Outlook Implications of Qualification Recognition. Economic Background. GNP averaging = 5%

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Immigration and the Irish Labour Market

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  1. Immigration and the Irish Labour Market Brian McCormick FAS

  2. Overview • Economic and Labour Market Background • Migration Trends • Impact of Migration on the Economy • Medium-Term Outlook • Implications of Qualification Recognition

  3. Economic Background • GNP averaging = 5% • Employment growth = 4.5% • Unemployment = 4.3% • Concerns: - Inflation - Euro appreciation - Balance of Payment Deficit - Construction sector • Need to increase R&D

  4. Employment Growth by Sector 2001-2005

  5. EU Unemployment Rates

  6. Net Migration History 1871-2005

  7. Gross Migration Flows 1987-2005

  8. Nationality of Immigrants 1996-2005

  9. Labour Force by Nationality 1998-2005

  10. PPSN Allocations to EU10 (3-Month Average)

  11. EU10 Immigration by Nationality

  12. Working Population 2002-2005

  13. What are they doing?

  14. Education and Earnings of Migrants • Non-nationals have higher education than Irish across all sectors / occupations • Earnings much lower than the average for the sectors where they work. • EU10 workers earning an average of €365 per week

  15. Impact of Immigration • ESRI Study 1993-2003 - Added 3% to GNP - Kept high-skill wages down (-4/5%) - Increase employment (+2%) - Could have been better (0.7%) • Recent EU and UK studies have been positive

  16. Displacement in 2005?

  17. Skills and Labour Shortage Forecast

  18. No. of Births 1960 -2002

  19. Growth Decomposition 1994-2004

  20. Estimated Graduate Requirement 2004-2014 (Optimistic)

  21. Estimated Graduate Requirement 2004-2014 (Pessimistic)

  22. Implications of Qualifications Recognition • Attracts the best • Bridges the productivity gap • Increases flexibility • Reduces business uncertainty

  23. Implications of Qualifications Recognition • Reduces the ‘brain drain’? • Reduces income inequality? • Reduces conflict?

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