The impact of climate change today and on the world of tomorrow Dr. Raffaele Salerno Head of Research, Development and

1. The impact of climate change today and on the world of tomorrow Dr. Raffaele SalernoHead of Research, Development and Production Epson Meteo Centre Brussels, 2 June 2008

2. Epson Meteo Centre • A private independent applied meteoresearch organisation, established in 1995 • Weather forecasting and seasonal outlooks • Internal HPCF*(1 Teraflop) • Numerous modelling applications including climate predictions • International research projects and collaboration • Application of weather research to industry, agriculture, communications, transportation, energy and oil companies, as well as media (newspapers, radio, television, web) *High Performance Computing Facility Brussels, 2 June 2008

3. Climate change is now! • Weather records of 2005 • One of the warmestyears on historical record: 0.62 °C above the 1880 - 2004 mean temperature 0.53 °C above the 1961-1990 mean temperature almost same as in 1998, but without ‘El Nino’ • Second highest in the Northern Hemisphere, sixth in Southern Europe in terms of surface temperature • Regionally the highesttemperature in Australia and the highest average temperature recorded in Canada and Siberia • Global carbon dioxide concentration rose 2 ppm, slightly above the 1.6 ppm/year observed since 1980 • Cost: global economic losses of $200 billion dollars ($125 billion = Katrina; previous record = $175 billion in 1995) Brussels, 2 June 2008

4. Laika Glacier in 2005, compared to 1971 Coast line Google-Earth, 2005 Brussels, 2 June 2008

5. Signs of climatic change: glaciers and mountains ARCTICCoburg Island and Pond Inlet, CA next picture 1975 2005 Brussels, 2 June 2008

6. Climate change: recent developments • Prediction of the warming of the upper troposphere by better-mixed greenhouse gases as at the end of this century. • Recent evidence of anomalous temperatures in the upper troposphere have been observed from December 2007 to January 2008 in South America (NB:NEW results not yet published) Brussels, 2 June 2008

7. Climate prediction based on past climate • The past behaviour of Earth’s climate provides powerful insight into what may happen in the future • Example: A cold period, known as ‘Little Ice Age’ occurred between 1300 and 1850. This period was characterised by severe winters and shifting climate regimes A frozen canal in the Netherlands in a painting by P. Breughel is evidence of the Little Ice Age Brussels, 2 June 2008

8. Emission scenarios Future anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be the product of different drivers such as demographic development, socioeconomic development, and technological changes. Brussels, 2 June 2008

9. Global Surface Air Temperature 20 19 18 4.0 °C 17 16 Temperature (°C) 2.0 °C Global 15 today 2050 14 13 12 11 2015 2024 2033 2042 2051 2060 2069 2078 2087 1961 1970 1979 1988 1997 2006 2096 Year Temperature scenarios Stabilising at 445–490 ppm CO2-equivalent) could limit global mean temperature increases to 2°C above the pre-industrial level Without any significant mitigation action, temperature will rise 2°C by 2050 and this is not the worst scenario Brussels, 2 June 2008

10. Climate prediction • Maximum surface temperature Spring Winter Brussels, 2 June 2008

11. Climate prediction • Maximum surface temperature Summer Autumn Brussels, 2 June 2008

12. Global precipitation 350,000 340,000 330,000 320,000 mm 310,000 300,000 290,000 280,000 2059 2080 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017 2024 2031 2038 2045 2052 2066 2073 2087 2094 Year Climate prediction Precipitation may be the best indication of climate change. This is the global precipitation in mm/yr which shows a tendency increase after 2015 Distribution of Autumn precipitations as for the end of century Autumn Brussels, 2 June 2008

13. Impacts • Climate change has direct effects on physical and biological systems on all continents and in most oceans • Effects on humans: • excessive mortality in Europe • evidence of changes in the distribution of some human disease vectors in parts of Europe, Africa, Asia • earlier onset and increase in the seasonal production of allergenic pollen in mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere Brussels, 2 June 2008

14. Impacts On 10 summits in the Bernina region, Swiss Alps Universities of Zürich and Hannover, October 2005 3262 m 2959 m Ca. 1930 1980 2005 2050 • More then a doubling of the number of species over the last 75 years • A further doubling from the present day to the year 2050 • - Acceleration of the increasing number of species Brussels, 2 June 2008

15. Impacts • Socioeconomic impacts: • migrations due to sea rise • tourism • agriculture • freshwater availability • increasing costs due to modification to biological system and human health impact Brussels, 2 June 2008

16. Impacts • Flooding, land loss, salinisation of groundwater and the destruction of buildings and infrastructures • >1500 millionpeople will be exposed to increased water resource stress by the year 2050 • >2 millionskm2 of land will experience vegetation dieback • >10 million people will be flooded in coastal areas Artic ice and snow cover evolution in July, from present day to 2050 Darker colours mean greater depths, light red colour means thinner layers, white means no ice or snow Brussels, 2 June 2008

17. Impacts South Engadine, Switzerland Heavy precipitation hit the Northen Swiss Alps, 21-23 August 2005. • During the ‘multisecular event‘ • rain fell up to 3400 m and caused • a lot of debris in the mountains, due to: • glacial retreat • ice exposure • retreating permafrost Brienz, Bern Region, Switzerland Brussels, 2 June 2008

18. Vulnerability reduction • Specific policies and programmes • Individual initiatives • Participatory planning processes and other community approaches • Promotion of environmental quality • Transforming current practices for environmental resources into sustainable management practices Brussels, 2 June 2008

19. Mitigation • We need negative net emissions towards the end of this century • Mitigation efforts over the next two or three decades will have a major impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilisation levels. • Emissions are required to decline before 2015 and further reduced to less than 50% of today’s emissions by 2050 • Multi-gas emissions reduction scenarios are needed (able to meet climate targets at substantially lower costs compared to a CO2-only strategy). Brussels, 2 June 2008

20. Remarks • Greenhouse Gas Reduction required: • Carbon Dioxide : 60% • Methane : 20% • Nitrous Oxide : 80% However, a 60% cut in carbon dioxide emissions, either now or over the next few years, will be almost impossible to achieve. Even the most optimistic IPCC emissions scenario foresees a rise in carbon emissions by 2025, with only a gradual decline by the year 2100 Brussels, 2 June 2008

21. Conclusions • If climate model projections prove to be even moderately accurate, global temperatures by the end of this century will be higher than at any time during the last 120,000 years. • Failure to introduce some form of global greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy will merely extend the timeframe of global warming that humanity is already witnessing, with very serious consequences for ecosystems and mankind, including risks of unsustainable social and economic costs which can lead to unpredictable direct consequences in many parts of our planet. Brussels, 2 June 2008

22. Thank you for listening Brussels, 2 June 2008