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AMY08 Overarching G oal

AMY08 Overarching G oal. Advance our understanding of the physical processes determining the Asian monsoon variability and predictability , to improve Asian monsoon predictions on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales for societal benefits, and

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AMY08 Overarching G oal

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  1. AMY08 Overarching Goal Advance our understanding of the physical processes determining the Asian monsoon variability and predictability, to improve Asian monsoon predictions on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales for societal benefits, and to promote applications in order to support strategies for sustainable development. Success in meeting this overarching goal is a significant contribution to the new WCRP strategic framework.

  2. AMY08 Objectives • Improve understanding of the ocean-land-atmosphere-biosphere interaction, multi-scale interaction, and aerosol-monsoon interaction in the Asian Monsoon system. • Determine predictability of the Asian monsoon on intraseasonal to interannual time scales, the role of land in continental rainfall prediction in order to improve seasonal prediction. • Improve physical representation in coupled climate models and develop data assimilation of the ocean-atmosphere-land system in monsoon regions. • Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system (with lead time up to a season) in Southeast Asia. • Better understand how human activities in the monsoon Asia region interact with environment.

  3. AAMP-RM Application of regional models to sensitivity studies of parameterization schemes Generating local information from seasonal prediction and climate change projection products of global coarse-resolution models, for use in impact assessment. The regional modeling activities may focus on SEA region for muliti-scale process study and northeast monsoon variability. Possible impacts of aerosols on radiation budget and regional climate shouldl be studied using within the ARCS-Asia framework. Direct and indirect effects of aerosols will be evaluated.

  4. CLIVAR/AAMPGM (1) Coordinated coupled model AAM intraseasonal prediction experiments (2) Propose new hindcast experiments on the impact of land surface (experiment) initialization and land-atmosphere interaction on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the continental regions in collaboration with WGSIP and TFSP. (3) Organize analysis of existing hindcast datasets through APCC/CliPAS project to in collaboration with TFSP (a) develop a range of suitable metrics relating to the AAM (b) assess the seasonal prediction skills, common weakness, (c) determine the predictability of IOD in collaboration with IOP, and (d) Role of the MJO in the onset of the El Niño with POP.

  5. Modeling/Prediction Coordination • RM modeling Aim: Eastablish a hydro-meteorological prediction system in SEA Coordinated regional model activity for this purpose • Global modeling Aim: Determine roles of land in continental rianfall prediction Coordinated AGCM/CGCM monsoon intraseasonal prediction experiments (Multi-scale interaction in SEA) • GM-RM Experiments Aim: Improve seasonal prediction of summer continental precipitation Impact of land surface initialization on ASM seasonal prediction. Rely on land data reanalysis/assimilation to facilitate model initialization. Real time seasnal prediction during AMY.

  6. Steps and Agenda • Enlarge modleing participating groups (APCC/CliPAS, MAIRS, MEFSE, EAC, …) • Small three task force group, leaders • Experimental designs • Participanting groups, • Working group meeting • Condict experiments and collect outputs, validation datasets, • Diagnostic analyes, • Workshop and publication.

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