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Impacts of wind power on energy balance of a hydro dominated power system

Impacts of wind power on energy balance of a hydro dominated power system. EWEC 2006, Athens MSc Juha Kiviluoma, VTT PhD Hannele Holttinen, VTT. Background. Based on model developed in EU-project WILMAR (Wind power integration in liberalised electricity markets)

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Impacts of wind power on energy balance of a hydro dominated power system

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  1. Impacts of wind power on energy balance of a hydro dominated power system EWEC 2006, Athens MSc Juha Kiviluoma, VTT PhD Hannele Holttinen, VTT

  2. Background • Based on model developed in EU-project WILMAR (Wind power integration in liberalised electricity markets) • Risoe, IER at University of Stutgart, Sintef, VTT, KTH, IMM at Technical University of Denmark, Elkraft, Elsam, Nord Pool Consulting • The work continues in IEA Annex on Wind & hydro and the model development in EU-project SupWind • These results part of PhD thesis work of Juha Kiviluoma • Large increases of wind and other renewables in the energy system

  3. Research questions • How hydro power regulates large amounts of wind power in hydro dominated system? • How the energy balance of the hydro dominated system changes with large amounts of wind power? • Which power plants are affected? • How the prices change?

  4. Model description • Market model of Nordic countries and Germany • Hourly time-scale • Spot market horizon • Long term model for water values • Stochastic presentation of wind (not used in this) • Quite detailed unit presentation • Also heat areas for CHP • Primary and secondary reserves (dependant on wind) • See Meibom at DS1 on Thursday morning

  5. Cases The modelled year has 2001 profile for hydro, wind, load and heat demand Not very windy Average hydro year

  6. Assumptions 17 €/CO2 ton Fuel price scenario Planned transmission lines up to 2010 Fennoska II 800 MW Storaebelt 600 MW NorNed 700 MW (connected to Germany) Some Nordel internal connections Import time series from Russia and Poland Announced power plants and decomissionings until 2010 Wind is added as extra production, no capacity taken away

  7. Production [TWh] in 2010 base case NO_N SE_N NO_M FI_R NO_S SE_M DK_W SE_S DK_E DE_NW DE_NE DE_CS

  8. base case: production, consumption and transmission [MWh/h]

  9. 10% case: production, consumption and transmission [MWh/h] MWh

  10. 20% case: production, consumption and transmission [MWh/h] MWh

  11. 30% case: production, consumption and transmission [MWh/h] MWh

  12. Prices [€/MWh] 10 % base 30 % 20 %

  13. Regulation cases in 30% wind case Highest one-hour drop in wind 30 GW  13 GW Hydro: NO 28 GW SE 16 GW FI 3 GW Sum 47 GW

  14. Regulation cases in 30% wind case High consumption – low wind Nuclear and hydro regulate Hydro: NO 28 GW SE 16 GW FI 3 GW Sum 47 GW

  15. Conclusions • 20-30% wind penetration changes the utilisation of other power production decisively • Wind will affect power prices strongly if penetration gets high • At least in the modelled year, hydro power can regulate wind to such extent that usage other condensing than nuclear is minimal (could be covered by demand side measures) • Limitations for wind are most likely in available sites and transmission rather than in regulation Nordic price duration curve

  16. Discussion • Power price will drop if countermeasures are not taken • Additional connections to the continental grid would keep the prices up and provide profits • Possibility of increased consumption: heat pumps, industry, traffic sector (oil dependency on agenda) • Price drop obstacle also for wind • Market failure? Nordic price duration curve

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