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Enhancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasting through Observing Systems

Explore the progress and challenges in intensity and track forecasting of tropical cyclones since 1985. Learn about the methods used for estimating intensity, the impact of observational requirements, and the recommendations for advancing research and operational forecasting systems.

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Enhancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasting through Observing Systems

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  1. State of Observing Systems & Real-time TC Prediction Frank D. Marks AOML/Hurricane Research Division 10 April 2007

  2. Intensity Track Mean Absolute Error of the 1985-2006 NHC Atlantic Intensity and Track Forecasts Where are we at? 48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year

  3. How is Intensity defined? • Maximum sustained surface wind: • Maximum wind, averaged over a 1 minute interval at an altitude of 33 ft (10 m), associated with the circulation of the tropical cyclone at a given point in time. • With very, very few exceptions, direct observations of the maximum sustained surface wind in a tropical cyclone are not available.

  4. Intensity/Structure • Sensitive to environmental circulation outside core • Sensitive to ocean, interactions, and changes along track • Sensitive to inner core dynamics • Sampling of these limited by presence of heavy rain, clouds, strong winds. Rely on what we can get (i.e., radar, aircraft, satellite: microwave, IR, and visible) • Issues include: • poor data coverage in important areas, particularly in region surrounding core. • temporal and spatial resolution (3-6 h, horizontal 5-10 km, and 1 km vertical)

  5. How Do We Estimate Intensity/Structure? • Satellites • Geostationary IR and VIS (Dvorak technique) • AMSU • QuikSCAT • Surface observations • ships, buoys, land stations (limited) • Aircraft reconnaissance • flight-level winds • GPS dropsondes • Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) • Airborne Doppler radar

  6. Geostationary Satellites • Geostationary satellites are used to locate the center and estimate intensity (VIS and IR) Sept. 15, 2004

  7. Ocean Surface Vector Winds QuikScat detail – Katrina (2005) Windsat detail – Isabel (2003)

  8. Intensity/Structure Vq Vr, w Airborne Doppler-analyzed wind field Hurricane Katrina, 28 September 2005

  9. Observation Requirements • Collect observations that are targeted • throughout TC life cycle for development of data assimilation of core circulation • in and around storm circulation for evaluation of NWP models • in variety of atmospheric/oceanic conditions to assess influence of these conditions on observed and model TC intensity and structure changes • Improve our physical understanding of and develop improved model representations of • sea spray/surface flux effects on ABL structure and microphysics  • intensity and structure change during decay. • Genesis • rainbands & eyewall replacement cycle

  10. Observations over early storm life-cycle

  11. Observations over mature storm life-cycle Hurricane Ivan 09/08 06Z 09/08 12Z 09/09 12Z 09/10 06Z 09/10 18Z 09/11 06Z 09/11 12Z 09/12 06Z 09/12 12Z 09/13 06Z 09/14/06Z

  12. Concentric Eyewall Cycle What did it do to intensity estimates? Hurricane Ivan

  13. Where are we at? • NOAA/SAB HIRWG Report, Dec 2006 • 35 recommendations in areas: • Advanced NWP Systems • Develop and Test Novel Methods for DA • Improved Observations of the Hurricane and its Environment • Organizational changes to achieve a critical mass • Acceleration of Research to Operations • NSB report on broader hurricane issues, Feb 2007 • Proposes multi-agency National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI) to implement general recommendations • NHRI carries an additional investment of ~$300M/yr in hurricane science and research

  14. Where are we at? • OFCM JAG/TCR Report: • 5-10 year plan for Federal TC research - Feb 2007 • Made 5 major recommendations dealing with research & its coordination, NWP, observing program, warning program review, education & outreach • Recommends resource increase of $85M/yr http://www.ofcm.gov/tcr/tcrplan.htm “…US must engage in a nationally coordinated, multi-agency and multi-dsiciplinary research initiative to greatly expand our understanding of hurricanes….”

  15. Where are we at? A Major Undertaking (No Quick Fix) requiring all Federal Agencies (DOD, NASA, NOAA, NSF), and Universities (UCAR) to work together to: • Improve understanding of physical processes that lead to intensity and structure change in hurricanes through better use of models and observations • Develop and test tools and technologies needed for an integrated TC forecasting system that is based on state-of-the-art NWP models, DA, and observations • That is why we are here!

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