Crude Oil Pipeline Transportation Risk Analysis

1. Crude Oil Pipeline Transportation Risk Analysis Safety Group Meeting 18 July 2013 Jeff LaHucik Rail Transportation and Engineering Center – RailTEC Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, U.S.A. http://www.heatingoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/oil_pipeline.jpg

2. Outline • Introduction to pipeline infrastructure and crude oil transportation. • Crude oil pipeline data analysis: • Severity vs. frequency analysis. • Multivariate linear regression. • Crude oil pipeline transportation risk model: • Definition of risk, probability, and consequences. • Outputs of the model. • Case study: Keystone XL Pipeline.

3. Current Infrastructure: Mainline Crude Oil Pipelines http://www.pipeline101.com/overview/images/CrudeLines.gif

4. Current Infrastructure: Pipeline Statistics http://www.phmsa.dot.gov/portal/site/PHMSA/menuitem.ebdc7a8a7e39f2e55cf2031050248a0c/?vgnextoid=a62924cc45ea4110VgnVCM1000009ed07898RCRD&vgnextchannel=f7280665b91ac010VgnVCM1000008049a8c0RCRD&vgnextfmt=print http://keystonepipeline-xl.state.gov/documents/organization/205578.pdf 2.3 million miles of pipeline in the United States. Only 55,000 out of 2.3 million miles (2.39%) of pipeline transport crude oil. 43.2% of all hazardous materials pipeline incidents involve the shipment of crude oil.

5. Current Infrastructure: Oil Transportation http://www.pipeline101.com/introduction/Transport_Model.html Crude oil pipelines in the U.S. currently transport approximately 7.1 billion barrels per year. A majority of the flow of crude oil is concentrated in the midwest corridor, ranging from the gulf states to the oil refineries of the midwest. Increasing amounts of Canadian oil sands crude oil is being imported to the U.S. via pipeline.

6. Data Used for the Analysis • 1811 crude oil pipeline incidents occurred during the time period being analyzed. • 1616 incidents were considered in this analysis. • Due to invalid/missing latitude and longitude coordinates, the remaining 195 incidents were not used. • On average, 165 crude oil pipeline incidents occurred per year.

7. Crude Oil Pipeline Incidents by Year Note: all 1811 incidents were used in this figure.

8. Crude Oil Pipeline Incidents by Release Size

9. Severity vs. Frequency Analysis of Crude Oil Pipeline Incident Causes

10. Incident Cause Probability

11. Incorporating Multivariate Linear Regression • Multivariate linear regression was utilized in order to develop an equation relating total cost with population density and barrels lost. • For each incident cause, the total cost (not including the cost of the lost crude oil) was regressed against population density and barrels lost. • The cost of lost crude oil was omitted from the regression (it was later added to the barrels lost coefficient) in order to avoid creating an overconfidence in the fit.

12. Multivariate Linear Regression: R2

13. Crude Oil Pipeline Incident Event Tree < 1 1 - 5 5 - 10 < 1 10 - 100 1 - 10 > 100 10 - 50 50 - 500 Yes > 500 No Incident-Caused Release Population Density (people/square mile) Release Size (Barrels) Release Probability Release Consequences

14. Societal Risk Definition: Segment Risk

15. Societal Risk Definition: Route Risk

16. Probability of an Incident

17. Consequence Analysis Population Density Release Quantity Weather Costs Consequences http://blog.shaleshockmedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/environment-Alberta-oil-pipeline-rupture-2012.jpg Environmental, property damage, and cleanup costs Population density influences persons affected Release quantity determines severity of incident Weather conditions can increase or decrease exposure area Highly variable conditions

18. Risk Calculation Given the length and population density of each segment, segment risk and route risk are returned. Risk was defined in two ways: cost in $ and persons affected per barrel transported. Distributions calculated: population density, segment risk ($), and segment risk (persons affected per barrel). Total risk is presented in two forms: route risk and the sum of segment risk. Graphs of segment risk ($ and persons affected) versus cumulative miles is used to identify the most risky portions of the route.

19. Route Information: Keystone XL Pipeline http://keystone-xl.com/about/the-project/ http://keystone-xl.com/about/jobs-and-economic-benefits/ • Involves 3 separate pipeline projects: Keystone XL, Cushing Extension, and Gulf Coast Project. • Length: 1692 miles in the United States. • Pipe diameter: 36 inches. • Capacity: 830,000 barrels per day. • Cost: $7.6 billion. • Approximately 20,00 jobs will be created. • By 2035, the pipeline will add $172 billion to America’s gross domestic product.

20. Keystone XL Pipeline Route: Population Density

21. Keystone XL Pipeline Segment Risk: U.S. Dollars per Year

22. Keystone XL Pipeline Segment Risk: Persons Affected per Year

23. Risk Summaries • Route risk (per year) from Morgan, MO to Nederland, TX: • $286,646 • 0.142 people • 4.68 x10-10 persons/barrel • Segment risk (per year):

24. Future Research • Explore additional input variables for use in regression: • Time of day. • Environmental sensitivity. • Emergency services/pipeline operator response time. • Compare crude oil transportation via pipeline to transportation by rail (perhaps a cost-benefit analysis).