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OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA

OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA. WHAT’s UP?. What Drives Foreign Policy?. Generosity Friendship Proximity Repayment of historical debt Or Self-centered national interest. Rationales for Alternatives. U.S. loss of “soft power” Continuing frustration in Latin America

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OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA

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  1. OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA WHAT’s UP?

  2. What Drives Foreign Policy? • Generosity • Friendship • Proximity • Repayment of historical debt Or • Self-centered national interest.

  3. Rationales for Alternatives • U.S. loss of “soft power” • Continuing frustration in Latin America • Importance of Latin America to U.S. • Change of U.S. administration as result of presidential election

  4. The Obama Beginning • Exaggerated expectations • Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Iraq, Afghanistan) • Hesitant beginnings (no “Cairo” speech) • Nuanced view of Latin America

  5. EXPLAINING LOW PRIORITIES • Absence of crisis • Competing priorities (e.g., Afghanistan, ISIS) • Are we getting all we need? • Petroleum • Cooperation on drugs (Mexico, Colombia) • Support for anti-terrorism • Decline of revolutionary activity • Rise of democracy (in limited sense) • Immigration (net flow now zero) • Trade and investment • Peace a subsidy for projection of U.S. power • Paradox: The better the neighborhood, the less the attention

  6. First Term: A Rocky Start • Honduras: commitment to democracy? • Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo • Points of tension: • Venezuela • Bolivia • “New Left” in general • War on Drugs • Immigration

  7. War on Drugs • Mérida Initiative ($1.6 billion) • Opposition to legalization • More of the same…?

  8. Immigration • No comprehensive reform… not yet, anyway • Deportations (1.1 million!) • Executive initiative in second term, congressional oppositioin

  9. THE AMAZING TURNAROUND INU.S.-CUBA RELATIONS Foundations of U.S. Policy: Economic and Diplomatic Isolation • 1959: Cuban Revolution • 1961: Bay of Pigs Invasion • 1962: October Missile Crisis • 1996: Helms-Burton Act Obstacles to Reform • 1982 designation of Cuba as “state sponsor of terrorism” • Human rights and political prisoners • Cuban-American resistance, role of Florida

  10. CHANGING CONDITIONS • Raul Castro takes over from Fidel 2008 • Release of prisoners in 2010-2011 • New generation of Cuban-Americans • Obama wins Cuban-American vote in Florida in 2012

  11. SEIZING OPPORTUNITY • Announcement December 17, 2014 • Prisoner releases plus easing of restrictions (on remittances, travel, banking) • April 2015: Obama and Castro meet at Summit of the Americas in Panama • Reopening of embassies July 20, 2015 (as yet no formal U.S. ambassador) • Early 2016: further easing of economic sanctions • March 21-22: Obama visit to Cuba (first U.S. president in 88 years, since Calvin Coolidge!)

  12. WORLD REACTIONS • U.S. Republicans vigorously opposed; no prospect for lifting of embargo • 63% Americans support resumption of diplomatic relations, 66% end to embargo • U.S. business long in favor • 2013 UN General Assembly condemned U.S. embargo for 22nd consecutive year, 188-2 • Strong support in Latin America (as in OAS), but: • Mexico • Venezuela

  13. WHY DID THEY DO IT? • Cuba • Disappearing sponsors (Soviet Union, Venezuela) • Political isolation • Need for investment, economic growth • Exhaustion of “revolutionary” spirit • Opportunity: Obama > Others • United States • Economic opportunities • Soft power: approval of world community, Latin America • Obama’s quest for “legacy” and use of executive power • Hasten political change within Cuba Thus: interests, not altruism

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