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COSMO Status Report 2006-2007: Advancements in Meteorological Science

Explore the latest research and management updates in the COSMO project from the 2006-2007 period, presented at the SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Learn about scientific activities, management changes, and future plans.

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COSMO Status Report 2006-2007: Advancements in Meteorological Science

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  1. COSMO Status Report 2006 – 2007Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM With the contribution of all my COSMO colleagues SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  2. Content • COSMO organization • Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview • COSMO scientific activities • Michael Baldauf, DWD "COSMO numerics and physics-dynamics coupling" • DWD "Assimilating radiances from polar-orbiting satellites in the COSMO model by nudging" • Francesca di Giuseppe, ARPA-SIM "Assimilation of the SEVIRI data including the use of the Ensemble B matrices and other developments based on the 1DVar approach“ • Philippe Steiner, MeteoSwiss The COSMO project: ’Tackle deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecasts' • Chiara Marsigli, ARPA-SIM "EPS activities in COSMO" • Adriano Raspanti, USAM/CNMCA "Verification Strategies in COSMO" SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  3. Changes in the COSMO management • Steering Committee Members: • Mathias Rotach (the Chairman MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) • Hans-Joachim Koppert DWD (Germany)  • Massimo Ferri USAM (Italy) • Ioannis Papageorgiou HNMS (Greece)  • Michal Ziemianski IMGW (Poland)  • Scientific Project Manager: • Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM (Italy) • Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: • Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD • Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD • Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss • Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss • Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM • Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD • Steering Committee Members: • Mathias Rotach (the Chairman MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) • Hans-Joachim Koppert DWD (Germany)  • Massimo Ferri USAM (Italy) • Ioannis Papageorgiou HNMS (Greece)  • Ryszard Klejnowski IMGW (Poland)  • Scientific Project Manager: • Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM (Italy) • Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: • Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD • Numerical aspects / Jürgen Steppeler DWD • Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss • Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss • Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM • Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  4. Future Changes in the COSMO management • Steering Committee Members: • Mathias Rotach (the Chairman MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) • Hans-Joachim Koppert DWD (Germany)  • Massimo Ferri USAM (Italy) • Ioannis Papageorgiou HNMS (Greece)  • Michal Ziemianski IMGW (Poland)  • Scientific Project Manager: • Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM (Italy) • Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: • Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD • Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD • Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss • Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss • Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM • Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD • Steering Committee Members: • Mathias Rotach MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) • Hans-Joachim Koppert the Chairman DWD (Germany)  • Massimo Ferri USAM (Italy) • Ioannis Papageorgiou HNMS (Greece)  • Michal Ziemianski IMGW (Poland)  • Victor Pescaru NMA (Romania) • Scientific Project Manager: • Marco Arpagaus Meteoswiss )Switzerland • Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: • Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD • Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD • Physical aspects / tbd • Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss • Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM • Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  5. New model name The former Lokal Modell and its many associated names (LM, aLMo, LAMI etc..) now is/are COSMO-xy, where‘xy’ is an (up to) two-letter identification of the application of the deterministic model is concerned (COSMO-K, COSMO-E, COSMO-A2…) SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  6. COSMO partners Members of COSMO are the following national meteorological services: DWD Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany HNMS Hellenic National Meteorological Service, Athens, Greece IMGW Institute for Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw, Poland MeteoSwiss Meteo-Schweiz, Zurich, Switzerland USAM Ufficio Spazio Aereo e Meteorologia, Roma, Italy These regional and military services within the member states are also participating: ARPA-SIM Servizio IdroMeteorologico di ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy ARPA-Piemonte Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale-Piemonte, Italy AWGeophys Amt für Wehrgeophysik, Traben-Trarbach, Germany CIRA Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali Italy NMA, the Romanian Meteorological Service, will be full member before the end of 2007 Roshydromet, the Russian Hydromet Service has applied to join COSMO and is now applcant member SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  7. Model system overview (1) Dynamics Basic equations:Non-hydrostatic, fully compressible primitive equations; no scale approximations; advection form; subtraction of a stratified dry base state at rest. Prognostic variables: Horizontal and vertical Cartesian wind components, temperature (or temperature perturbations), pressure perturbation, specific humidity, cloud water content. Options for additional prognostic variables: cloud ice, turbulent kinetic energy, rain, snow and graupel content. Diagnostic variables: Total air density, precipitation fluxes of rain, snow and graupel. Coordinates: Rotated geographical coordinates (λ,φ) and a generalized terrain-following coordinate ς. Vertical coordinate system options: • Hybrid reference pressure based σ-type coordinate (default) • Hybrid version of the Gal-Chen coordinate • Hybrid version of the SLEVE coordinate (Schaer et al. 2002) • Z coordinate system almost available for testing (see the report by Juergen Steppeler) SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  8. Model system overview (2) Numerics Grid structure: Arakawa C grid in the horizontal; Lorenz vertical staggering Time integration: Second order horizontal and vertical differencing Leapfrog (horizontally explicit, vertically implicit) time-split integration including extension proposed by Skamarock and Klemp 1992. Additional options for: • a two time-level Runge-Kutta split-explicit scheme (Wicker and Skamarock, 1998) • a three time level 3-D semi-implicit scheme (Thomas et al., 2000) • a two time level 3rd-order Runge-Kutta scheme (regular or TVD) with various options for high-order spatial discretization (Förstner and Doms, 2004, Wicker and Skamarock, 2002) Numerical smoothing: 4th order linear horizontal diffusion with option for a monotonic version including an orographic limiter (Doms, 2001); Rayleigh-damping in upper layers; quasi-3D divergence damping and off-centering in split steps. Lateral Boundaries: 1-way nesting using the lateral boundary formulation according to Davies and Turner (1977). Options for: • boundary data defined on lateral frames only; • periodic boundary conditions Driving Models: The GME from DWD, the IFS from ECMWF and LM itself. Thanks to the cooperation with INM, in the framework of the INM-SREPS and COSMO SREPS projects, ICs and BCs can now be extracted also from the NCEP and UK Met Office global models (see the report from Chiara Marsigli about the COSMO SREPS Project). SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  9. Model system overview (3) Physics Grid-scale Clouds and Precipitation: Cloud water condensation /evaporation by saturation adjustment. Cloud Ice scheme HYDCI (Doms,2002). Further options: • prognostic treatment of rain and snow (Gassman,2002; Baldauf and Schulz, 2004, for the leapfrog integration scheme) • a scheme including graupel content as prognostic variable • the previous HYDOR scheme: precipitation formation by a bulk parameterization including water vapour, cloud water, rain and snow (rain and snow treated diagnostically by assuming column equilibrium) • a warm rain scheme following Kessler Subgrid-scale Clouds: Subgrib-scale cloudiness based on relative humidity and height. A corresponding cloud water content is also interpreted. Moist Convection: Mass-flux convection scheme (Tiedtke) with closure based on moisture convergence. Further options: • a modified closure based on CAPE within the Tiedtke scheme • the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme Vertical Diffusion: Diagnostic K-closure at hierarchy level 2 by default. Optional: • a new level 2.5 scheme with prognostic treatment of turbulent kinetic energy; effects of subgrid-scale condensation and evaporation are included and the impact from subgrid-scale thermal circulations is taken into account. Surface Layer: Constant flux layer parameterization based on the Louis (1979) scheme (default). Further options: • A new surface scheme including a laminar-turbulent roughness sub-layer SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  10. Model system overview (4) Soil Processes: Two-layer soil model including snow and interception storage; climate values are prescribed as lower boundary conditions; Penman-Monteith plant transpitration. Further options: • a new multi-layer soil model including melting and freezing (Schrodin and Heise, 2002) Radiation: δ-two stream radiation scheme after Ritter and Geleyn (1992) for short and longwave fluxes; full cloud-radiation feedback Initial Conditions: • Interpolated from the driving model. • Nudging analysis scheme (see below). Diabatic or adiabatic digital filtering initialization (DFI) scheme (Lynch et al., 1997). Physiographical data Sets: Mean orography derived from the GTOPO30 data set(30"x30") from USGS. Prevailing soil type from the DSM data set (5'x5')of FAO. Land fraction, vegetation cover, root depth and leaf area index from the CORINE data set. Roughness length derived from the GTOPO30 and CORINE data sets. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  11. Model system overview (4) Data Assimilation for LM Method: Nudging towards observations Implementation: Continuous cycle Analyzed variables: horizontal wind vector, potential temperature, relative humidity, 'near-surface' pressure (i.e. at the lowest model level) Observations: SYNOP, SHIP,DRIBU: station pressure, wind (stations below 100m above msl) and humidity TEMP,PILOT: wind,temperature: all standard levels up to 300 hPa; humidity:all levels up to 300 hPa; geopotential used for one “near-surface” pressure increment. AIRCRAFT: all wind and temperature data WIND PROFILER: all wind data (not included in blacklisted stations) Quality Control: Comparison with the model fields from the assimilation run itself. A Latent Heat Nudging scheme is also implemented A nudging of temperature and humidity profile retrieved by satellite radiances by using a 1-DVAR technique is also implemented for testing SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  12. COSMO model versions during the year • COSMO-Model 3.21: (14.12.06) • Preparations of Ensemble Mode • Implementation of last changes for Runge-Kutta dynamical core • Other minor changes……………… • COSMO-Model 3.22: (24.01.07) • New Version of cloud microphysics (hydci_pp) • Other minor changes • COSMO-Model 3.23: (30.03.07) • New treatment of lateral boundaries for moisture variables • Introduced option to calculate volume- and surface integrals over arbitrary cuboid • Other minor changes • COSMO-Model 3.24: (26.04.07) • New version of cloud microphysics; here: Graupel scheme • Other minor changes……………… SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  13. COSMO model versions during the year • Now we have: COSMO-Model Version 4.0 • Fully implemented all developments for high resolution (LMK-Project, work at other centers) • Fully implemented all changes for running the model in climate mode (long simulations, updating external parameters, NetCDF,…) SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  14. Interpolation INT2LM • INT2LM 1.5 (05.07.07; Development Version) • Implementation of the changes for high-resolution runs (LMK-Project) • Started implementation of changes from the climate community (NetCDF, special interpolation procedures) • Implemented possibility for interpolating additional variables (e.g. chemistry variables) • INT2LM 1.6 (07.09.07; Development Version) • (First) full implementation of all changes from the climate community SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  15. Other related developments … SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  16. Other related developments … SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  17. Other related developments … SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  18. Other related developments … SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  19. COSMO operational applications More Info ….National Posters SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  20. COSMO-LEPSat ECMWF More details in the presentations by C.Marsigli… SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  21. COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR • Structure and organization of COSMO • Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview • Operational Applications of the LM • COSMO scientific activities SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  22. Scientific Working Groups WG1 WG2 WG3 WG4 WG5 WG6 The present scientific organizationof COSMO SUPPORT ACTIVITIES – WG6 SIR 1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA LM_Z COSMO Priority Projects RK UTCS SREPS INTERPRETATION TACKLE DEFICIENCES IN QPF COMMON VERIFICATION – CONDITIONAL VERIFICATION SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  23. Special Project Support ActivitiesPL: U. Schaettler DWD includes many of the activities of WG6 Implementation and Reference Version • Source Code Administration • Web Page Administration • Contents Manager • Web Master • Documentations, Newsletter, Technical Report • Documentation • COSMO Newsletter • Technical Reports Still criticities related to the web page administration due to limited human resources. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  24. Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling PL: C. Schraff DWD This project was formulated 2 years ago based on the COSMO Long-term vision  emphasis on ensemble techniques (FC + DA) SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  25. Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling PL: C. Schraff DWD This project was formulated 2 years ago based on the COSMO Long-term vision  emphasis on ensemble techniques (FC + DA) • As regarded DA for convective scale it was decided that: • In the future Ensemble DA should play a major role • Nudging at moment: robust and efficient, requires retrievals for use of indirect obs, no severe drawbacks (for short term) if we can make them available SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  26. Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling PL: C. Schraff DWD • The SIR project take off has been delayed due to missing experienced resources. • SAC/STC decision: long-term strategy of COSMO for DA to be re-discussed (2 meetings with external experts, 5 Sept (P.J. van Leeuwen), 18 Sept (Chris Snyder)) • SIR project is being revised / replaced SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  27. New PP: Km-scale Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (KENDA) Aim: Development a novel ensemble-based data assimilation system for the convective scale (or km-scale, i.e. 1 – 3 km model resolution) Set up a modular system / framework for ensemble DA. Modular means that others (universities ..) can use it. components of the system can be replaced by alternatives The system will be based on Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF, Hunt et al., 2007) Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) filter (van Leeuwen, 2003) requires more basic research. This option should rely mainly on resources from co-operating universities and research institutions KENDA IS NOW UNDER DEFINITION SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  28. Some other issues related to Data Assimilation Latent Heat Nudging • DWD: COSMO-DE with LHN operational since April 2007 • assessed benefit from revisions done in 2005 / 2006 to cope with prognostic precip • MetCH: – LHN real-time test suite for June – Aug 07 with COSMO-2 using Swiss radar data • verification in comparison to pre-opr. COSMO-2 without LHN • positive impact of LHN on surface parameters throughout forecast, particularly for 2-m temperature and cloudiness • very clear positive impact on precipitation in some cases GPS tomography: • comprehensive monitoring (14 months) of quasi-operational tomography profiles (at CSCS) against Payerne radiosonde and COSMO fields done • results: tomographic refractivity profiles have rather large errors unless COSMO forecasts are included as background info • start working on assimilating humidity profiles derived from tomography retrievals SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  29. free forecast free forecast ASS ASS scores with latest version of microphysics & LHN 15 – 30 August , 00 and 12 UTC runs (32 forecasts) threshold : 0.1 mm / h LHN noLHN LHN noLHN ETS FBI thr. : 0.1 mm / h threshold : 0.1 mm / h LHN noLHN LHN noLHN ETS ETS threshold : 1.0 mm / h threshold : 5.0 mm / h SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  30. Priority Project 1dVar for satellite radiancesPL: R. Hess DWD Specific talks by • DWD "Assimilating radiances from polar-orbiting satellites in the COSMO model by nudging" • Francesca di Giuseppe, ARPA-SIM "Assimilation of the SEVIRI data including the use of the Ensemble B matrices and other developments based on the 1DVar approach“ SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  31. Special Project: LM_Z PL: Ulrich Schaettler Talk by Michael Baldauf SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  32. Priority Project Further development of the Runge Kutta method PL: M.Baldauf DWD Talk by Michael Baldauf SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  33. Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS)PL: D.Mironov DWD • Implementation of Transport Equations for the Sub-Grid Scalar Variance, Coupling with Convection, Turbulence and Cloud Diagnostic Schemes • Motivation • There are many deficiencies of LM that are related to inadequate representation of boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection. Among them are • prediction of stratiform clouds, • triggering and diurnal cycle of deep convection, • prediction of partial cloud cover and cloudiness-radiation interaction, • to mention a few. These deficiencies manifest themselves in large forecast errors, first of all, of precipitation rate and timing and of 2m temperature. The proposed project is aimed at addressing the above issues in a unified turbulence-shallow convection framework. • Goals • To account for turbulence and shallow non-precipitating convection in a unified framework (hopefully, for LMK and similar models with mesh-size of 2-3 km this is a ‘final’ solution, although convection-turbulence modelling with such a grid size is still terra incognita). • To achieve a better coupling between boundary layer turbulence, convection and radiation (for LM and similar models with the mesh-size 7-10 km; may require adaptation of the convection scheme). SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  34. Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS)PL: D.Mironov DWD • Delay due to lackness of available, trained resources. • This project has been considered important for the application of the COSMO model at the “quasi” convective scale  • The projects is being reformulated including training of scientists with the required scientific background • The COSMO members, through the STC, will provide the necessary human resources SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  35. Tasks • (i) Development, coding and testing against LES and observational data of a two-equation model of a temperature-stratified PBL; comparison of two-equations (TKE + TPE) and one-equation (TKE only) models • (ii) Testing the existing sub-grid scale statistical cloud scheme in case that scheme is used by both the turbulence scheme and the radiation scheme of the COSMO model • (iii) Comparison of the cloud condensate predicted by the sub-grid scale cloud schemes (statistical and relative-humidity) and by the grid-scale saturation adjustment procedure • (iv) Testing modifications in the COSMO-model deep convection scheme (Tiedtke) 2007-2008 Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS)PL: D.Mironov DWD • Development, coding and testing against LES and observational data of a two-equation model of moist PBL with non-precipitating clouds (UTCS), comparison of two-equations (TKE + TPE) and one-equation (TKE only) model [July 2008 – July 2009] • Implementation of UTCS into the COSMO model [February 2009 – September2009] • Investigation of the interaction of UTCS with the radiation, grid-scale microphysics and deep convection schemes, slowing down deep convection scheme as needed [January – June 2010] • Testing UTCS within COSMO-model through numerical experiments, fine tuning UTCS parameters, evaluation of results [September 2009 – December 2010] 2008-2010

  36. Priority Project Tackle deficiencies in precipitation forecastsPL: M. ArpagausDWD SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  37. COSMO Priority Project ’Tackle deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecasts’ S. Dierer1, M. Arpagaus1, U. Damrath2, A. Seifert2, J. Achimowicz8, E. Avgoustoglou7, M. Baldauf2, R. Dumitrache9, V. Fragkouli7, F. Grazzini3, P. Louka7, P. Mercogliano6, P. Mezzasalma3,M. Milelli4, D. Mironov2, A. Morgillo3, E. Oberto4, A. Parodi5, I.V. Pescaru9, U. Pflüger2, A. Sanna4, F. Schubiger1, K. Starosta8, M. S. Tesini3 1MeteoSwiss (CH), 2DWD (D), 3ARPA-ER (IT), 4ARPA-P (IT), 5Uni Genova (IT), 6CIRA-CMCC (IT), 7HNMS (GR), 8IMGW (PO), 9NMA (RO) COSMO General Meeting, 19 September 2007, Athens

  38. Aim of PP QPF Good quantitative precipitation forecast is a challenging task – also for the COSMO model: The aim of PP QPF is improved knowledge about • most suitable namelist settings or • parts of the model that need to be reformulated to obtain a better QPF at 7 km horizontal grid size The project has a focus on model deficiencies – not on errors from e.g. initial and large scale conditions

  39. Overview of PP QPF • Task 1: Selection of test cases representative for „typical“ QPF deficiencies of COSMO model • Task 2: Definition of sensitivity studies • Task 3: Run sensitivity studies and draw conclusions

  40. List of test cases from all countries

  41. Forecast errors • 10 cases of stratiform overestimation (8 from D, CH and PO) • 4 cases of stratiform underestimation • 3 cases of convective overestimation • 7 cases of convective underestimation (6 from I and GR)

  42. Sensitivity studies • 1. Changes of initial conditions • 2. Changes of numerical methods • 3.1 Changes of microphysics • 3.2 Changes of convection schemes • 3.3 Changes of PBL schemes

  43. Conclusions (still preliminary …) • COSMO Version 4.0 is a good step forward! • Further improvements expected from Runge-Kutta. • We should have a closer look at the (initial) humidity fields. – Any improvements in data assimilation expected? • Convection schemes are the next thing to look at. • BUT: Even combining all positive (i.e. precipitation reducing …) effects does only cure about half of the cases of (stratiform) overprediction (main aim of project at project start …). • publication of results planned until end of the year

  44. Priority Project Development of short range ensemble (SREPS)PL: C.Marsigli ARPA-SIM Talk by Chiara Marsigli SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  45. Priority Project Advanced interpretation of LM outputsPL: Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss • The foreseen increase in resolution of the models will lead to a proliferation of grid points and probably also to an increase of the noise in the forecasts. The manifestations of the double penalty effect will increase for events not predicted exactly at the right place at the right time. Valuable information can however be found by composing a statistics on the neighbourhood of a verification point. Various ways to extract the best possible information out of high density precipitation fields have been proposed so far. I can be of deterministic nature (means, quantiles,…) or totally probabilistic. Different “fuzzy” verification methods will be explored and compared in this project. Some results in the talk by Adriano Raspanti SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  46. Priority Project Conditional VerificationPL: Adriano Raspanti USAM Talk by Adriano Raspanti SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  47. GM GM 2007 2008 SUPPORT ACTIVITIES – WG6 KENDA SIR ? LM_Z • QPF COSMO Priority Projects 1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA UTCS SREPS Due to projects which are going to finish, next year we should be able to concentrate resources on a really small numbers of Prio Progets INTERPRETATION/ Verif. VHR RK VerSUS SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  48. Further Info (soon) at:www.cosmo-model.org SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  49. Thank You! SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

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