Nuke Newcome 703-684-2900 sra uavforum

1. Nuke Newcome 703-684-2900 www.sra.com www.uavforum.com

2. From Science Fiction… “The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously… There was of course no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment… It was even conceivable that (the police) watched everybody all the time… You had to live… in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard and… every movement scrutinized.” George Orwell, 1984 (1949)

3. …To Today’s Reality The Washington Post 26 Aug 2001 p.C2

4. Lessons in Forecasting • Yesterday’s outlandish predictions tend to become today’s mundane reality - What would a cabbie of 1949 think of the 2001 photo? • You have to look backward to measure progress forward - Change is seldom appreciated while it is happening - Orwell was off by 17 years (1984 v. 2001) = 50% • Socio-economic factors govern technology progress - Cameras in cabs driven by cost and frequency of crime • The future always holds wild cards - Who forecast the appearance of the internet?

5. Overview • Requirements (Environmental) • Emerging Technologies • Potential Customers Technologies Customer Requirements

6. Platform Environment Requirements SATELLITES 500K 400K 300K 200K 100K ALTITUDE (FT) SOUNDING ROCKETS NO-MAN ZONE “PSEUDOLITES” BLAST BALLOONS MANNED AIRCRAFT Helios Global Hawk Pathfinder Condor WB-57 ER-2 Altair DC-8 F/A-18 C-141 P-3 T-34 6 12 18 24 30 48 72 96 120 ENDURANCE (HRS)

7. DHS & NASA Platform Requirements SATELLITES 500K 400K 300K 200K 100K NO-MAN ZONE “PSEUDOLITES” ALTITUDE (FT) SOUNDING ROCKETS NASA: Satellite Cal/Val Diurnal Research Mars Testing BLAST BALLOONS MANNED AIRCRAFT Helios Pathfinder Global Hawk Condor WB-57 ER-2 Altair Condor DC-8 F/A-18 C-141 P-3 T-34 DHS: Border/Port Patrol Hazmat Response 6 12 18 24 30 48 72 96 120 ENDURANCE (HRS)

8. Technologies Overview What is just over the horizon in: • Aerostructures • Power/Propulsion • Flight Controls • Sensors • Autonomous Capability

9. Aerostructures • Autonomic (Self-Repairing) Materials • Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) microcapsules to “heal” cracks • Ionomer coatings to “self-clean” surfaces • Biologically active molecular arrays to “regrow” damage • Transgenetic Biopolymers • Bio-production of spider silk from goat milk (“Biosteel”)

10. Transgenetic Biopolymers • Spider silk is… • Strong: greater tensile strength than steel’s • Flexible: Can stretch 30x its length • Lightweight: 25% lighter than composites • Each goat produces 4-22 grams/day of silk protein • Status • Over 150 genetically modified goats bred • Silk protein extraction process under development • SME: Dr. J. Turner, Nexia Biotechnologies

11. Autonomic Materials • Status: NSF/USAF/Motorola funded research project • SME: Dr S. White, University of Illinois

12. Power/Propulsion • Fuel Cells • Mass specific power (hp/lb) approaching that of internal combustion engines • Sources of fuel greatly expanded • Reformates of hydrocarbons • Byproduct (H2S) of oil and natural gas wells • Electrolysis of water - Increased reliability and lower maintenance cost due to lower parts count • Very low noise level = reduced acoustic signature • Very low vibration level • Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger (TIHE) • Nuclear reaction short of fission; no particulate radiation • Candidate for combined turbine/TIHE cycle engine • Thermoelectric Generator Modules 2

13. Fuel Cells • GM progress in fuel cells approaching 1 hp/lb specific power Specific Power 0.1 hp/lb 0.2 hp/lb 0.3 hp/lb 0.5 hp/lb 0.76 hp/lb

14. Background Isomers release energy (gamma rays) when bombarded with x-rays TIHE energy could heat the airflow going into a turbine in place of burning JP No particulate radiation occurs Advantages No fuel combustion pollution No moving parts Extremely long endurance enabled Status UTexas triggered a Hafnium isomer sample by dental x-rays in 1998 SME: Dr C. Collins, University of Texas Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger

15. Thermoelectric Generator Modules • Advantages • Converts waste heat to electricity • No moving parts • Small size (0.5g) • High power density (0.2 w/g) • Status • Power density goal of 0.25w/g • Integration on micro air vehicles pending • SME: Dr. W. Ng, Techsburg

16. Specific Power Trends

17. Flight Controls • Shape Memory Alloys (SMAs) and Polymers (SMPs) • Ice-shedding leading edges • Camber-optimizing airfoils • Actuator-less control surfaces • Reconfigurable Flight Control Systems • Redundant hardware • Adaptive software • Neuroelectric control • Thought control

18. Shape Memory Alloys & Polymers • Deforms with electricity, relaxes to remembered shape • Advantages: - Optimizes airfoil for slow/fast flight - Reduces takeoff and landing distances - Extends range and endurance - Compensates for damage • Status: - DARPA Morphing Aircraft Structures (MAS) and NASA/ Langley programs in progress • SME: E. Havens, Cornerstone Research Group

19. Pilot’s neuromuscular signals become control inputs Advantages Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice Learns patterns and responses over time Adjusts to differences in pilots Relearns to fly damaged aircraft in 1/6 sec Status Successfully tested in airliner simulator SME: Dr. C. Jorgensen, NASA Ames Neuroelectric Control

20. Pilot’s EEG signals become control inputs via Blue Tooth wireless Advantages Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice Direct brain to computer interface Status MIT’s “Mind Balance” w/Cerebus headset Cyberkinetics’ “Braingate” system Lab demo aimed at video game market SME: E. Lalor, MIT Media Lab Europe Thought Control

21. Communication/Data Links • Film and Spray-on antennas • Covert, lightweight, low power, broadband (2000 MHz) RF antenna • Reduces UAV weight by replacing dishes and gimbaled mountings • Eliminates blanking sectors • Provides one antenna for multiple functions (radio, data link, GPS, IFF) • Open Question: damage tolerance • Multiple Quantum Well (MQW) Retromodulators • Covert, low power, low weight, high rate (300 Mbps) data link • Avoids frequency congestion at RF • Open Question: range limitations

22. Multiple Quantum Well Retromodulators • Laser activated “shutter” for opening data link • Advantages • Small size: 10g for 100° sector coverage • Low power: 1W per 10 Mbps required • Covert: <100 mrad dispersion; invisible wavelength used • High data rate: 4 Mbps demonstrated; 300 Mbps possible - Avoids frequency congestion of RF spectrum • No pointing & tracking system needed on UAV • Status • 4.2 Mbps demonstrated with a hovering UAV (Aug 01) • Tests to expand data rate to 10 Mbps planned • SME: Dr. C. Gilbreath, Naval Research Lab Ground Terminal (courtesy Terabeam Inc.)

23. Sensors • Imaging • Motion detection/reporting without imaging (passive MTI) • Active imaging to incorporate vibration, polarimetry, and fluorescence • 3-dimensional imaging • One image, multiple target perspectives • Signals • Full-body, conformal, broadband film/spray-on RF antennas • Chemical/Biological • Diazoluminomelanin (DALM) “DNA on a chip” organic semiconductor • Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) real time, remote agent detection

24. Polarimetry Tank tracks Foliage penetration Vibration Engine running/stopped Identification by engine modulation Aimpoint refinement Fluorescence POL detection Multi-Spectral Camouflage detection Imaging Coordinates for targeting 3D Imaging Visual identification Coordinates for targeting One Image, Multiple Target Perspectives Active Imaging

25. Replacing the Pilot? • Defining “Autonomy” • Human-Equivalent Computing • Speed • Memory • Algorithms ( = Thinking Patterns, Experience) • Ethics, Law of War, ROE, union resistance, etc.

26. CREW SIZE TREND ON AIRLINERS - Flight Mechanics - Radio Operators - Flight Engineers - Navigators - Third Pilots

27. Action Autonomy Knowledge Information Data

28. Computer Speed Trend Speed Growth Rate = 100 MIPS/decade

29. Speed v. Memory Relationship Memory/Speed Growth Rate = 1 MB/MIP 20 years away from humans in MIPS and MB in a PC

30. Computer Cost Trends

31. Computer Final Frontiers

32. Human Equivalency • “Blue Brain” project by IBM and Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL) - To simulate human brain down to molecular level - Convergence of biological data and computer capabilities • Status: To be operational in 2015 • SME: C. Peck, IBM H. Markram, EPFL • PCs lag mainframes by 10-15 years, so… - Expect human equivalency in a PC by 2025-30

33. How Fast Is Technology Adopted? Sperry Doolittle Concorde Mercury Global Hawk Condor

34. Human-Equivalent Autonomy Timeframes for Emerging Technologies Autonomic Materials Transgenetic Biopolymers Fuel Cells (MSP > 1hp/lb) Thermoelectric Generators Reconfigurable FCS (Software) SMA Airfoils Film Antennas MQW Retromodulators 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

35. The Smart UA of 2025 SMA Deicing Leading Edges Shape Memory Alloy Control Surfaces Fuel Cell Propulsion Camber-Optimizing Airfoil Spider Silk-Based Aerostructure Embedded Skin Sensors Embedded Antenna Film Skin

36. Technology Driving Markets • The aviation industry is not the driver for UA-relevant technologies

37. UA Customer Forecast … but even if the technology becomes available, unmanned aviation will need an economic reason to grow. • What will the customer base for unmanned aviation look like in 2025 or 2050? - How many? - When? - Why? • Five markets: - Airlines and Cargo Carriers (Parts 121 and 135) - General and Business Aviation (Part 91) - Military

38. Trend #1: IFR Traffic Forecast Based on FY2000 FAA Forecast for FY2025

39. Trend #2: Military UA Growth Trend 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1510 Number of IFR UA Fielded Percent of All Military Aircraft (16,050) 50% 630 23% = 11.5% Growth/Decade 9.4% 190 80 3.9% 1.2% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 FY

40. Trend #3: Crew Size on Airliners - Flight Mechanics - Radio Operators - Flight Engineers - Navigators - Third Pilots - Pilots by 2020?

41. Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.1) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 11.5% Growth/Decade 50% Percent of Aircraft in Fleet Military Cargo 33% 23% 23% Gen Av/Biz 9.4% 18% Airlines 3.9% 1.2% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 FY

42. Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.2) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 17% Growth/Decade 50% Percent of Aircraft in Fleet Cargo Military 33% Gen Av/Biz 23% 25% 9.4% Airlines 3.9% 1.2% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 FY

43. Positive Influences on UA Growth • Military - UA program trends - Pathfinding efforts (S&A, standards) • Cargo Airlines - Long term drive to reduce crew size - Long, dull, no-pax missions into Class C airport hubs - Expressions of interest by airlines • General Aviation - NASA Personal Air Vehicle Exploration (PAVE)--2009 demo - FAA expectation of ‘mini-jets” - Flashover point in commute distance

44. UA GROWTH BY IFR SEGMENT

45. IFR TRAFFIC FORECAST WITH UA • Unmanned percentages of IFR traffic: • 0.05% 3.9% 38% Based on FAA Forecast for FY2025

46. Summary: Technology Trends • Away from hydraulics and combustion • Toward all-electric • Away from connected, moving parts • Toward a single morphing part • Away from data acquisition and relay (data link intensive) • Toward data information knowledge action (processor intensive) • Away from inorganic-based technologies • Toward bio-engineered components • Away from manned aircraft debuting the latest aviation technologies • Toward unmanned aircraft assuming this role

47. Conclusions • A number of highly innovative technologies applicable to UA will be emerging over the next 25 years • The aviation market will not be driving these technologies • Cargo airlines are the “great commercial hope” for UA

48. Further Reading Christensen, Clayton. The Innovator’s Dilema. Harper Collins, 1997. FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts, FY2015, 2020 and 2025. Infinity Point web magazine, www.infinitypoint.com Kaku, Michio. Visions: How Science will Revolutionize the21st Century. Anchor Books, 1997 Moravic, Hans. Robot. Cambridge Press, 1999. OSD Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap, 2005-2030.

49. Nuke Newcome 703-684-2900 www.sra.com www.uavforum.com

50. NASA Morphing Video