Developing and Realizing the enormous potential of Renewable Energy in Africa

1. WEC AFRICA – CHINA DIALOGUE 23 November 2011, Oran, Algeria Developing and Realizing the enormous potential of Renewable Energy in Africa Dr. Latsoucabé FALL Manager, Africa Region World Energy Council

2. A huge growth of RE is looming on the path of Africa’s energy future, with opportunities of : • boosting the Continent’s economy, • improving modern energy access & reducing energy poverty, • lowering carbon emissions and reducing the reliance on fossil fuels, and • ensuring a more sustainable energy mix for the countries.

3. Thus our Challenge … Developing and Realizing the enormous potential of RE in Africa? • Key questions: • What is the Renewable Energy potential of the African region? • What are the competitive advantages & opportunities for the • region? • How to capture the opportunities?

4. Africa: RE = 30 GW – 2.6% of world RE Installed CapacityAfrica total power generating capacity =120 GW (2.7% of World total) Source: WEC PGP Committee 2010

5. Renewable Energy Potential in Africa

6. Solar irradiation worldwide (kWh/m²/day) The areas with greatest availability of solar resources are in bold red.

7. Solar irradiation in Africa (Wh/m2) Source: www.geni.org Africa has plenty of sunshine - solar radiation (~ 3000 – 7500 Wh/m2 ) The most favorable DNIs lay in North Africa and Southern Africa, with reliable clear skies and large favorable arid and semi-arid areas.

8. Enormous potential of solar power in North Africa: annual solar electricity yield per km² of land area (GWh/km2) Source: H. Broesamle & all, DLR - Germany • Theoretically, for a suitable area of 12.6 Mio.km2 in North Africa, the potential of power generation is estimated at 1.362 million TWh – can supply more than 75 times the world electricity consumption. • Less than 1.5% of this area could generate more than the global electricity consumption.

9. Situation and plans for solar energy in Africa • Several African countries are exploiting solar energy for water heating, crop • drying, medical applications and telecommunications, but mostly as small or • pilot projects. • Small-scale PV home & community systems providing small amount of electricity • are also developed in most countries. • Only a few North African countries have developed solar power in a significant • way: Morocco and Egypt: installed capacity 6 MW and 5 MW, resp. • With the support of GEF / World Bank, some major hybrid pilot projects are being • developed for power generation – ISCCS (CSP-CCGT) power plants with CSP • solar parabolic components of 20 - 25 MW in Algeria, Egypt and Morocco. • Large-scale projects in the future include: 1/ Moroccan Integrated Mega Solar • Project (2000 MW by 2020), 2/ South African solar development programme • (PV: 8400 MW & CSP: 1200 MW), 3/ Mediterranean Solar Power Initiative for the • Union for the Mediterranean (20 GW by 2020), and 4/ DESERTEC Industry • Initiative (solar and wind: 390 GW by 2050 in the deserts of the MENA region).

10. The wind potential estimated for Africa is 10,600 TWh per year, assuming that 10% of the land area has average wind speeds exceeding 5.1 m/s at a height of 10 m. However, useable wind energy occurs in highly localized areas and therefore requires detailed assessments (A. Sambo) • Egypt and Morocco and some coastal areas in Southern Africa have the highest wind potential in Africa (e.g. : Egypt potential : 30000 MW over 6000 km2). • Egypt holds the most significant wind installed capacity of around: 500 MW wind farm at Zafarana at the Suez Gulf along the Red Sea, and plans to adding a total of 7200 MW by 2020. • South Africa also plans to build 9200 MW of wind power by 2030 (IRP 2010). Wind energy potential in Africa Source: www.geni.org

11. Africa hydro Potential • Africa holds around 11.5% of the world hydropower potential, with a technically exploitable capability estimated at 1834 TWh/year (WEC, SER 2010) - representing more than 3-fold the current African electricity demand (562 TWh). • Africa hydropower installed capacity is estimated at 22 GW, representing 3% of the world total. • Africa produces annually 3% of the world hydropower generation, with about 96 TWh /year - at end-2008 (WEC, SER, 2010). • Hydropower capacity under construction in Africa is estimated at 9.8 GW, representing 5.7% of the world total hydropower capacity under construction. Source: World Atlas of Hydropower & Dams and IHP

12. Africa hydropower is unevenly distributed and concentrated over a number of key countries: Distribution of hydropower potential throughout the African continent • DRC has the “Lion’s share”, with nearly 42% of Africa’s technical hydro potential (Table) • Five countries (DRC, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Cameroon and Gabon) have more than three-quarter of the African technical hydro potential (Table) • Fourteen countries have about 93% of that potential (Table). Source: Data, WEC SER 2007

13. Other RE resources in Africa • Geothermal: Significant geothermal resources exist along the Rift Valley in eastern Africa, in Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia. • The geothermal energy potential in the continent has been estimated to be in the range of 2.5–6.5 GW, but at present only Kenya has exploited this resource with an installed capacity of 129 MW. Plans are at different stages to repeat this Kenyan experience in many African countries in the Rift Valley areas. • Biomass & Biofuels: Africa’s dense vegetation makes it rich in traditional biomass in the form of fuel-wood and other agricultural residues. • The potential of Africa’s biofuels is large and far exceeds the requirements for food and basic needs for the African population. This provides for an opportunity to use agricultural and forestry to produce, in addition to food, biofuels for cooking fuels, electricity and transport, by using efficient biomass conversion technologies. • The leading African sugarcane countries are producing ethanol, electricity and sugar from sugarcane. Ethanol from sugarcane is produced as an additive to gasoline in some African countries. There is also potential for biodiesel production and use (jatropha).

14. Significant RE potential can contribute to drive economic development of the region and foster its sustainable development. RE offers competitive advantages and enormous opportunities for the African region • Securing a reliable energy supply • for the region • Boosting electrification and • stimulating economic & social • development • Creating major regional • industries (developing local • industrial manufacturing) Opportunities include: • Huge regional and international • markets at stake • Large scale RE projects planned in • the region •  Export •  Job creation •  Technology and skill transfer •  CO2 emissions reduction.

15. Realising the potential and capturing the opportunities • Requires: • A comprehensive RE strategy to be implemented under clear • priorities • Political support at the highest level and strong government engagement • Sustainable financing and new business models • Technology deployment and dissemination • Development of capabilities (human, infrastructure, and other enablers) • High cooperation / integration and high-quality international partners.

16. Elements of success to realize the potential • The huge RE potential is expected to be developed in a sustainable way and its use to grow substantially over the next decades. • The pace of their rapid development and wider dissemination in Africa depend on the following key factors:

17. Policy & Institutions Key factors of success Supportive Logistics Investments & Finance 5 Elements of Success Market Technology

18. Key priority actions to achieve the factor of success should focus on: • Implementing appropriate policy measures, incentives and institutions to push RE ahead • Encouraging investments by appropriate measures (incentives, regulatory frameworks) • Promoting and implementing new financing and business / industrial models • Developing local & regional RE industries and Promoting technology transfer and capacity • building to favour deployment & dissemination • Removing the critical barriers to market growth, including market distortions (subsidies of • fossil fuels) • Encouraging regional & international cooperation, and building large free integrated • markets • Gaining know-how and best practices from certain pioneer countries / sharing experiences • with others • Stimulating R&DD, innovation and technology development & deployment • Raising awareness and gaining public acceptance.

19. Conclusions & Recommendations • High potential & large opportunities for RE in the African region • RE will substantially be contributing to the energy mix of the region • in the next decades • To make things happen: need : • establishing bold strategies • focusing on the achievement of the key factors of success, and • ensuring key partnerships NOW • These will be instrumental to secure the place of Africa in the RE industry for the future.

20. Thank you for your attention.