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Developing renewable energy cost effectively . Tom Howes European Commission. 16/08/2014. EUROPEAN COMMISSION. Progress to date…. Eurostat. Technology breakdown - electricity. Cost estimations. Total investments in renewables are currently at a level of approximately € 35 bn/y
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Developing renewable energy cost effectively Tom Howes European Commission 16/08/2014 EUROPEANCOMMISSION
Progress to date… Eurostat
Cost estimations • Total investments in renewables are currently at a level of approximately € 35 bn/y • Most analysis predict this has to double to reach our 2020 targets • Unit cost of renewables, contrary to other forms of energy, are declining; for certain technologies sharply • PV module costs around €500/kW • Producing (and generating) renewables where most cost-efficient offers significant potential for lowering overall cost
Merit order effect • Denmark 2005: saving of 0.3 to 0.5 €cents per kWh consumed. • Spain 2005: a reduction of about 0.5 €cents/kWh at peak hour for each additional GWh • Germany 2006: €5bn electricity price saving + CO2 exp. = cost of EEG • Ireland 2011: neutral impact • EWEA EU 2020 estimate (265GW wind): €41.7bn/year savings (gross)
Feed in tariffs, Feed in Premiums & Quotas TGC revenues RES-support Market price FIT FIPs Quota stability of revenues and their composition (TGC=tradable green certificate) Fixed feed-in tariff (FIT) Gov fixes price, market decides quantity • Fixed tariff (€/MWh) • Guaranteed during lifetime or x years • Purchase obligation • (Grid (access & use) priority) Feed-in premium (FIP) • Fixed premium (€/MWh) • Guaranteed during lifetime or x years • Power sold on conventional markets Quota Gov fixes quantity, market decides price • Obligation for suppliers: • Minimum RES-E share • Increasing over time • Penalty • Tradable certificates for RES-E production (‘market’ price) • Obligation is met by submission of certificates to competent authority • Power sold on conventional markets Source: RE Shaping project
Points for reflection on support schemes (electricity) Provide policy stability (for FIT / FIP / Quota): Retroactive / sudden changes should be avoided. Move away from annual budgeting (creates stop and go) Reduce revenue risk: Long term contracts are most relevant (15-25 years) Priority dispatch/curtailment compensation Apply automatic degression formulae for tariffs and premiums. New tariffs (or premiums) fall according to learning curve of technology. Other reductions in FIT/FIP require well planned, public tariff adjustment cycles or mechanisms (e.g. DE tariff falls if capacity grows by more than 3.5 GW...) Small scale development is a different market: Many quota countries offer separate incentives: BE minimum prices for PV, IT FIP for PV, UK FIT for small-scale applications. Technology-banding within the quota as applied in UK can help to support cost-intensive technologies like wind offshore, but is less suitable for small-scale projects.
The other elements of European energy policy: • EU policies working in tandem to provide a stable long term framework: • The creation of competition and the single market in energy • The development of European infrastructure (@1c/kWh) • Europe's R&D programme for new technologies • Energy Efficiency proposal to reduce consumption and transform the market • 2050 – decarbonisation… 2030 milestones?... • Impact of costs is clearly important: • Explore net impact (merit order effect) • Recall the whole 2008 energy and climate package price estimate was “up to 10%” • Operating costs of non renewable energy rising (again) • 2050 energy scenarios explore cost consequences of decarbonisation • RES costs driven by capital costs, driven by risk, driven partly by regulatory framework
2020/2050 Key Challenges • Increasing importance of RES increases requirements on: • Capacity and flexibility • of electricity grids, • of power plants, • of energy storage • of demand side management (~smart) • Energy Roadmap 2050 – due December • Renewable energy Communication on “post 2020” - due 2012 • (public consultation imminent) • Update on state of internal market - due 2012
Thank you for your attentionhttp://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/index_en.htm