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Economic Conditions

Economic Conditions. Society of American Military Engineers July 26, 2012 William W. Hall, Jr. Professor of Economics Department of Economics and Finance and Senior Economist H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services Cameron School of Business

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Economic Conditions

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  1. Economic Conditions Society of American Military Engineers July 26, 2012 William W. Hall, Jr. Professor of Economics Department of Economics and Finance and Senior Economist H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services Cameron School of Business The University of North Carolina Wilmington hall@uncw.edu

  2. Web Slides • http://www.csb.uncw.edu/cbes/events/index.htm

  3. Population Change 1 2nd fastest growing county in the state 2 9th largest county in the state 3 8th largest city in the state Source: Bureau of the Census, US Department of Commerce.

  4. Wilmington MSA, NC, & US Economic Growth Source: US Department of Commerce; Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary, Economics Group, Wells Fargo Securities, July 20, 2012; Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast, UNC Charlotte, Babson Capital Management, LLC, June 5, 2012; Ravija Badarinathi and William W. Hall, Jr., for the H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services, Cameron School of Business, UNC Wilmington.

  5. Forecast Risks • “Fiscal cliff” • Restrained export growth • Inflation • Federal Reserve action

  6. “Fiscal Cliff” • n. A moment in early 2013 when Federal tax cuts expire and automatic spending reductions take effect (see sequestration), removing $600 billion (4% of US GDP) from the already shaky economy over the coming year.

  7. Options for Dealing with the “Fiscal Cliff” • Congress and the White House could • Agree to a large package of tax hikes and spending cuts or • Rewrite the laws to postpone the cliff to another day

  8. Options for Dealing with the “Fiscal Cliff” • Congress and the White House could • Agree to a large package of tax hikes and spending cuts or • Rewrite the laws to postpone the cliff to another day (most likely)

  9. Unemployment Rates Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.

  10. Unemployment Rates Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.

  11. Wilmington MSA Employment “Spider” Chart(10 Quarters Before and After the End of the Recession) Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services, Cameron School of Business, UNC Wilmington.

  12. Wilmington, NC, MSA 2011 Employment and Wages 1 Largest ten employment sectors Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce.

  13. Retail Sales Growth Rates Source: NC Department of Revenue.

  14. Retail Sales Growth Rates(Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter) Source: NC Department of Revenue.

  15. Wilmington International AirportAir Passenger Traffic Growth Rates Source: Wilmington International Airport.

  16. Wilmington International AirportAir Passenger Traffic Growth Rates(Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter) Source: Wilmington International Airport.

  17. Port of WilmingtonContainer Tonnage Growth Rates Source: NC State Ports Authority. Source

  18. Port of WilmingtonContainer Tonnage Growth Rates(Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter) Source: NC State Ports Authority.

  19. 2010 Travelers’ Expenditures 10th in the state 9th in the state 42nd in the state Source: NC Department of Commerce.

  20. Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes(5-Month Centered Moving Average) WRAR BCAR Source: NC Association of Realtors.

  21. Average Annual Sales Prices of Existing Single-Family Homes Source: NC Association of Realtors.

  22. Average Quarterly Sales Prices of Existing Single-Family Homes Source: NC Association of Realtors.

  23. Foreclosures Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts.

  24. Eastern NC Military Installations Source: Web Sites.

  25. Upcoming Events • Economic Outlook Conference • Tuesday, October 9, 2012 • Burney Center, UNC Wilmington campus

  26. Special Thanks

  27. Quarterly Barometer • http://www.csb.uncw.edu/cbes/newsletter/index.htm

  28. North Carolina’s Southeast • http://www.ncse.org/

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