Crime & Economic Conditions

1. Crime & Economic Conditions • Ignores characteristics of individuals • Do variations in economic conditions correspond to variations in crime rates? • Times of economic depression • Wealthy areas v. poor areas • Crime rate and unemployment rate • Crime rate and the business cycle (economic downturns) • Degree of inequality - poverty existing near wealth

2. Early studies • 1800’s France - crime and poverty - Guerry and Quetelet • Wealthiest regions more property crime, less violent crime • Opportunities – more stuff to steal • Inequality greater within rich area = greater resentment? • Great Depression (1928-1940) – Henry and Short • General crime rate does not seem to increase • Crimes of violence declined

3. Business/economic cycles • Association between poverty and crime • None: Cho, 1970 - Percentage of people below poverty in 49 largest cities not associated with seven FBI index crimes

4. Strong association between poverty and crime: • Ehrlich - 1940, 50, 60 - association between property crime and poor households • 1974 - Loftin and Hill - index of structural poverty (infant mortality, education, income, 1-parent families) - strong correlation with State homicide rates

5. Unemployment and delinquency Hypothesis: Unemployment  poverty  crime • Some found no relationship • Glaser and Rice: unemployment reduces delinquency, maybe because parents are home • Danser and Laub - no relationship at all based on victimization data, even when controlling for age, gender, race • Most find a relationship • Many studies report strong positive correlation between delinquency and unemployment • Calvin – particularly strong relationship for black youths

6. Unemployment and adult crime • No or weak relationship • Freeman - 1983 review of 18 prior studies • Land, Cantor and Russell - 1960 - 1980 - weak negative rel. • Strong relationship • Nagel - 50 states ranked on unemployment and crime • Brenner – 1% increase in unemployment = 5.7% increase in murder • Chiricos - 1987 review of 63 studies: strong support, esp. for property crime • White – 1970 -1990: decline of mnaufacturing jobs  increased poverty and unemployment  increased robberies, burglaries, drug offenses • Shihadeh – 1970 -1990: decline of low-skill jobs  increased poverty  increased violence

7. Problems in Interpreting Research on Economic Conditions

8. Problem#1: Poverty is subjective • Relative to locale • Differently measured • Unemployment is an unexact concept • People not actively seeking work are not counted • Count the under-employed, poorly paid dead-end jobs, bad working conditions • How people feel about their jobs is not measured

9. Problem #2: Two contradictory theories • Relationship between economic conditions and crime is negative • Good economy, low crime • Bad economy, high crime • Relationship is positive (crime is like any other economic activity) • Good economy, high crime • Bad economy, low crime

10. Ploscowe - 1931: support for positive relationship • Increase of economic well-being during 150-year period accompanied by increase in crime Good economy  greater criminal opportunities  more crime • Gurr – 1977: support for positive and negative relationships between economy and crime • Crime actually declined from 1840’s-1930’s • Later increases may be due to better police reporting • Different causal process at work in each time frame • 19th. Century - economy pos. related to crime • 20th. Century - economic “distress” had no effect, but as total productivity increased, so did crime

11. Unemployment and the Crime Index, 1980-1999 Unemp. Crime Index

12. Index Crime Rate, 1980-1999 and U.S. Unemployment Rate AL CA MI KY NY WV UNEMP Rate (1-9) 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

13. Problem #3: Delayed effect of economic change on crime • Unemployment takes time to increase crime - unemployed don’t feel the full brunt of being out of work until other sources of support are exhausted • Perhaps there is no corresponding “lag time” for increased opportunities to commit crime - economic improvement immediately increases criminal opportunities • Cantor and Lang - 1946-1982 - US unemployment rates and crime index - immediate “opportunity” effect and lagged “motivation” effect As unemployment increased… • Robbery, burglary and theft immediately decreased but then increased the next year • Homicide and auto theft decreased, did not increase the next year • No effect on rape and assault

14. Problem #4: Determining the size of the unit that economic factors affect • Local conditions are very important • In economically stagnant inner cities, there may be declining amount of legal work and increasing amount of illegal work (e.g., dealing drugs) • Early involvement in crime and incarceration may limit later opportunities • Alienation and diminished expectations • Low-paying work is stigmatized • Violence substitutes for normal social controls • Once socialized into illegal activities, people may continue them

15. Problem #5: Determining which factors cause crime (problem of multicollinearity) • High crime areas have many factors that might cause crime • Poverty • Unemployment • Single-parent households • High density • Poor schools • Study by Land - most important variables clustered in “resource deprivation/affluence factor • poverty & income inequality • percent African-American • Percent children not living with both parents

16. Problem #6: Distinguishing between poverty and economic inequality • Poverty: below a fixed level of income or material goods • Inequality: relative deprivation • Consistent findings • Economic inequality associated with homicide • Economic inequality associated with violent crime • Firearm violence strongly correlated with inequality after controlling for poverty and access to firearms • Is it a specific kind of inequality (e.g., white/black)? • Messner and Golden - 1992 - increased inequality between blacks and whites associated with homicide • Other studies report mixed results

17. Poverty and Economic Inequality - studies

18. Poverty and economic inequality -conclusions • Overall inequality (gap between rich and poor) is associated with violent crime • Key factor may not be how many poor, but how many wealthy • When there are only poor people around, crime may be lower • Economics may have most direct affect on crime within the urban “underclass” - pockets of extreme poverty

19. Multiple factors? • Strong association between poverty and violence • Direct - causal - effect of poverty on crime is mediated by many other variables • High crime communities may have a host of factors - poverty, unemployment, single-parent households, poor schools