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Biofuels ― From Oil to Alcohol Addiction?

Biofuels ― From Oil to Alcohol Addiction?. Sten Nilsson IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria EUROFORENET Conference, Brussels, 20 November 2007. Solar Energy.

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Biofuels ― From Oil to Alcohol Addiction?

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  1. Biofuels ― From Oil to Alcohol Addiction? Sten NilssonIIASA, Laxenburg, Austria EUROFORENET Conference, Brussels, 20 November 2007

  2. Solar Energy • Based on the efficiency of biological collection of solar energy: 4000 m2 of land/person is required for replacement of fossil fuels and nuclear energy in the present world energy system (2080 w/person) • 250–700g water is needed for the photosynthesis of 1g of dry biomass • Constraints by available land, water, etc. Source: Burkhardt (2006)

  3. Bio Resources Competition of Resources • All of the products are expected to have future increased demand―with increased demand competition is increasing • Convergence of the markets over time for the products above. Bio raw material will be priced on its energy content Forest Industrial Production Food Production Chemical Industry HeatElectricity Biofuels

  4. Underlying Forces for Convergence Concerns related to: • Economic security (i.e., rising real price of oil) • Environmental security (i.e., climate change) • National Security (i.e., dependence on Middle East/Russia) • Political security (i.e., support for rural development and rural votes)

  5. Global Agriculture Production of Biomass(in billion ton BMQ) Source: Modified from Berndes, et al. (2007)

  6. Forest Other Wooded Land Other Land Water Forest Biomass 435 billion tons of above-ground biomassAvailable for utilization: 5–7 billion tons Source: FAO (2006)

  7. Examples of Conversations of Different Types of Biomass to Different Energy Carriers Chips, pellets, etc., combustion for production of heat and electricity Ligno cellulose plants, dry(wood from forests and bioenergy forests) Fermentation to ethanol (first generation) Cellulose rich plants, dry (straw) Hydrolysis and fermentation to ethanol (second generation) By-products from forest industry (sawdust, black liquor) Termic gasification: electricity; Synthetic gases for production of second generation biofuels, e.g., DME, methanol, FT-diesel and methane Sugar and starch rich plants Wet bio material (pasture, corn, manure, biological waste, drainage) Decomposition to biogas―heat, electricity, biofuel Production of RME (biodiesel, first generation) Oil rich plants (rape seed) Source: Börjesson (2007)

  8. Biomass Opportunities Bioenergy: Electricity and heat from biomass Liquid Biofuels for Transportation: Examples are ethanol, methanol, FT-diesel, RME (rape methyl ester), DME (dimethyl ether) Biogas―An in-between Biofuel: Can substitute natural gas and feed into existing natural gas pipeline systems; Can also be processed into a gas-to-liquid Hydrogen: Can be produced from biomass and coal third generation of fuels) ?

  9. Biorefinery Source: Girard and Fallot (2006)

  10. Pulp/Paper Value Added Source: Hildingsson (2006) • Plants are the most fantastic and efficient chemists in producing complex molecules

  11. Source: Svenska Grafikbyrån (2007)

  12. What To Do?

  13. Resource Efficiency Source: Obersteiner and Nilsson (2006)

  14. Resource Efficiency Energy input (production, harvest and transport 50 km) per produced ton of biomass in percentage: Sweden Source: Pålsson (2007)

  15. Energy Efficiency Heat and Electricity of Biomass: Conversion losses 10–20% Losses can be kept especially low in co-production of heat and electricity Biofuels: Losses 30–65% depending on conversion technology and fuel

  16. Energy Efficiency Energy yield Mwh/ha and year by poplar energy forests: Southern Sweden Ethanol 15 CHP 40 Co-production of heat (2/3) and electricity (1/3) 40 Energy combines (ethanol 9; heat 16; electricity 7) 32 Electricity and fuels are more valuable energy carriers. Not enough just to look at high energy yields and security aspects Source: Pålsson (2007)

  17. Energy Efficiency • The two highest yields are associated with cellulosic ethanol―the switch grass and poplar • For conventional ethanol, the top yields are from sugar beets in France and sugar cane from Brazil―roughly double the yields from corn in the US • The above ethanol yields are from optimal growing regions. The energy content of ethanol is about 67% that of gasoline Source: Roberts (2007)

  18. Energy Efficiency • For biodiesel, oil palm in S.E. Asia is a strong first―roughly 5x rape seed and 10x soybean. This primarily reflects a much higher oil content per kg and per hectare • The biodiesel yields estimates are conservative. The energy content of biodiesel is about 90% that of petroleum diesel Source: Roberts (2007)

  19. Energy Efficiency Kwh/100 km Medium-sized car Gasoline: Engine 75; Fuel Chain 30; Total: 105 Diesel: Engine 50; Fuel Chain 5; Total: 55 Flexfuel: Engine Fossil 20; Fuel Chain Fossil 5; Engine Ethanol 70; Fuel Chain Ethanol 125; Total: 220 Saved C kg/100 km if the biomass used for ethanol production was instead used for replacing fossil heat: 20–25

  20. Environmental Efficiency One ton of wood replaces oil (heating)→ Reduction of 1.3 ton CO2 One ton of wood replaces coal-based electricity production → Reduction of 1.5 tons of CO2 One ton of wood replaces gasoline by biofuels → Reduction of 0.8 ton of CO2

  21. Environmental Efficiency Perennial plants (forests, energy grass, etc.) normally have less local environmental footprints than single year plants (agriculture) Agriculture uses intense soil preparation, fertilization, irrigation, genetically modified organisms, etc. Hardly any of this is used in, e.g., forestry. If the same production technologies as in agriculture would be used in forestry, the theoretical yield of forest biomass would be 3–4 times higher

  22. Environmental Efficiency Upper limit Lower limit Source: Adapted from WWI/GTZ (2006)

  23. Cost Efficiency Target for being competitive with biofuels ≈50$/barrel

  24. Raw Material Supply Tightens―Driving Up Costs for Alternative Energies • At prices of $100/barrel―success of biofuels • High demand in alternative fuels Link Available Land―Biofuel Demand― Agriculture Products Biofuels

  25. Raw Material Supply Tightens―Driving Up Costs for Alternative Energies • Supply limited (~50 million Toe today―200–300 million ha totally available for additional production) • Agricultural commodity demand increases with increased prices • The cost goal posts have changed dramatically

  26. Raw Material Supply Tightens―Driving Up Costs for Alternative Energies • Transition will take much longer than expected

  27. Biogas Or-ganic Waste Electricity Heat Food Fuel Biogas Reactor Fermentation rests Manure, Wet Energy Biomass Source: Formas (2007)

  28. Economies of Scale • A production unit for synthetic biofuels has to be big due to economies of scale―this means a 380 million liter plant/year • This will require 2.4 million m3 of green wood/year

  29. Economies of Scale Estimated Scale Economies for Hardwood-based Cellulosic Ethanol • At large scale, estimate cost per installed gallon of $1.70 for cellulosic ethanol vs. $1.45 for starch-based ethanol • Lower variable costs vs corn-based ethanol • $1.22-$1.31/gallon for cellulosic ethanol (assuming no carbon credits) • $1.55-$1.75/gallon for starch-based ethanol • Higher capital cost driven by energy-efficiency cogen • Cogen is elective based on separate ROI analysis • Abandoned infrastructure reduces cost vs new Source: SunOpta Bio Process Inc. Source: Roberts (2007)

  30. Spatial Aspects • The economies of scale of biofuel plants causes large logistic challenges • Poland Example • To reduce Poland’s current fossil fuel consumption by 20% would require: • 3 production units the size of 380 million liters/year • This means that each of these units needs a truck delivery every 3rd minute 24 hours around the clock • EU-15 • To replace 15% of the fuel consumption would require 120–125 units of the above size • The land required for biomass production is the same as the total land area of Poland • The logistic problems are enormous • The production units have to be close to ports Source: Blinge (2007)

  31. Biomass Production Source: Obersteiner and Nilsson (2006)

  32. Transportation Costs of Biofuels 20 €/ton • 200 km by truck • 600 km by rail • 10,000 km by ship

  33. Jatropha Curcas Yield not yet measured; plants are too young 8 month old plantation near Jogjakarta, Java, Indonesia Good yielding bush 50 year old Jatropha tree J. Mahafaliensis near Toleara, Madagascar

  34. Jatropha Curcas • Toxic fruit and bark • Can grow on low productive land • Promising for producing environmental neutral fuel • The yield is far below that of palm oil per ha―huge areas needed

  35. Jatropha Curcas • Average yield: 1.7 tons oil/ha/year • Bush breeding and cultivated conditions yields 2.7 tons oil/ha/year―huge areas needed • The bush needs 600–1500 mm of rainfall/year (ideally 1000 mm) to get yield • Produces fruit and flowers at the same time

  36. Jatropha Curcas China is claiming to have planted 13 million ha of Jatropha Curcas by 2010 producing 6 million ton of biodiesel

  37. Palm Oil • Indonesia and Malaysia produce some 80% of the internationally traded palm oil • Palm oil constitutes 40% of edible oil trade • Average production 3.5 tons oil/ha/year • Hybrid clones 6.5 to 8.0 tons/ha/year

  38. Indonesia • Currently 6 million ha under palm oil production • 18 million ha of forests have been cleared for palm oil plantations • Additional 20 million ha are allocated in development plans for oil plantations • One of the main motors for deforestation • Large scale forest fires • Increased GHG emissions (drainage)

  39. Competition • Food demand will increase over time • Forest industrial products demand will increase in the future (driven by economic growth, demographic development, and energy development)Using the same raw material; pulp and paper industry generates 13 times more employment and 8 times more value compared to energy sectors (Pöyry, 2007) • Chemical industry has the potential to generate much higher value added of the biomassSome 8% of all fossil fuel goes to the chemical industry. Cracking the oil and generating the chemicals consume a lot of fossil fuel. Plants have the possibility to generate some of the chemical structures by themselves • Competition within the bioenergy sector

  40. Wood Pellets • Europe is driving the global market for wood pellets, and this demand is driven by a series of “carrots” and “sticks”. Consumption already up roughly 10x since 2000 to ~5 million tpy, and expected to rise to almost 13 million tpy by 2010 • Consumers? ~60% to co-fire coal power plants, 25% district heating, 15% residential Source: Wood Pellet Association of Canada Source: Roberts (2007)

  41. Difficult to Generalize on Biofuels The bioenergy systems: • Many combinations of bio feed stocks • Many different conversion technologies • Many different final bioenergy products • Different local conditions • Competition on raw material with other products • Security aspects • Technological developments unknown

  42. ModelingFramework Exogenous drivers for CH4 & N2O emissions: N-Fertilizer use, Rice production, Bovine Livestock Multigas-MESSAGE Systems Engineering IA-Model Data Sources: Fischer and Tubiello, LUC Data Sources: Obersteiner and Rokityanskiy, FOR Bottom-up mitigation technologies for non-CO2 emissions Data Sources: USEPA, EMF-21 Black carbon and organic carbon emissions coefficients Data Sources: Fischer and Tubiello, LUC Data Sources: Bond; Klimont and Kupiano, TAP Data Sources: Obersteiner and Rokityanskiy, FOR; Tubiello and Fischer, LUC

  43. Institutional Aspects • Established energy companies are getting bigger and bigger and have strong possibilities to influence the political power and policy making. The same is true for the agricultural lobby. A power the new bioenergy industry is lacking • Production of bio raw material in agriculture is often operated with substantial subsidies and protected markets. Forest production is largely based on the principles of a market economy. How to get an efficient land use allocation under these conditions? • To create a highly productive economy less or independent of fossil fuels is a transition comparable with the industrial revolution • Important to create environments open for experiments, failures and long-term strategies driving technological innovations. Relying just on the current economic forces will not be sufficient “Minds are like parachutes―they work best when open”

  44. Subsidies to Ethanol and Biodiesel (per liter net fossil fuel displaced & per metric ton of CO2 equivalent avoided) Note: The ranges of values reflect corresponding ranges in the estimates of total subsidies, variation in the types of feedstocks, and in the estimates of life-cycle emissions of biofuels in the different countries Source: Doornbosch and Steenblik (2007)

  45. Conclusions: Biofuels • Competition for land • Once markets have stabilized, biofuels will be dominated by ligno-cellulosics • Bio-ethanol will continue to develop as a transport fuel developed in tropical latitudes • Replacement of fossil fuels for electricity and heat production by biomass in co-generation of heat and electricity is superior to using the biomass for biofuels • Base production units of biofuels close to raw material and distribute finished energy carriers • Wood has some advantages relative to most other cellulosic biomass: • Higher sugar content • Higher bulk density (less top costs) • Longer storage life and lower storage costs • Less use of water and fertilizers • Forest sector has a well developed collection system • Trade in bio raw material and biofuels will increase substantially

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