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DET Module 5 Products and Display

DET Module 5 Products and Display. Tara Jensen 1 and Paula McCaslin 2 1 NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO 2 NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO. Acknowledgements: HWT Spring Experiment Participants,

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DET Module 5 Products and Display

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  1. DET Module 5Products and Display Tara Jensen 1 and Paula McCaslin 2 1 NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO 2 NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO Acknowledgements: HWT Spring Experiment Participants, HMT West Participants, CAPS SSEF Team, NOAA/ESRL HFIP Team, NOAA/ESRL LAPS Team, NOAA/ESRL ALPS Development Team, and others

  2. Motivation • Growing demand for easy-to-interpret ensemble products available to the end-user • Well constructed products allow more valuable evaluation of ensemble skill • Community needs means to explore and test product generation methods and display capabilities

  3. Products Module Goals • Module should provide the ability to specify techniques for • Deriving information from the ensemble • Generating probabilistic products • Providing decision support services • And more… • Two areas: • Product Generation • Display Capabilities

  4. Where Products Module Fits Initial and Physics Pert. Modules Statistical PP Modules External Input(HMT, HWT, HFIP, etc) Module 5: Products Generation Display Verification Module

  5. Pre-generated Products DET will leverage its collaborations* to gather algorithms for baseline pre-generated products *(with NCEP, ESRL, NCAR, AFWA, CAPS, NSSL, SPC, HPC, OHD and others) • Deterministic-style Products • Simple mean, spread • Weighted Mean • Bias Corrected mean • Probability Matching • Maximum member • Probability Products   • Simple Ensemble Frequency • Neighborhood Smoothed Ensemble Frequency Courtesy of Tara Jensen Web Display QPF

  6. Displays DET will also use its collaborations to gather algorithms and concepts for baseline displays • Spaghetti Plots   • Postage Stamps • Time Series • Soundings • Verification Plots Plot: One type of spaghetti (Simulated Radar Reflectivity) Use: Determine potential envelope of storm path Courtesy of: Steve Weiss and Adam Clark HWT Spring Experiment 2010(NAWIPS system)

  7. Courtesy of: ALPS Development Team Some Additional Display Options Courtesy of: Huiling Yuan & Isidora Jankov Courtesy of: Paula McCaslin

  8. Operational Display Systems • AWIPS for NWS/WFOs • Regional scale • Currently In Use to be replaced by AWIPS-II • N-AWIPS for NWS/Forecast Centers • CONUS scale • Currently In Use to be replaced by AWIPS-II • Ensemble Display capability using stored procedures • CHPS for OHD and RFCs • CONUS scale • In Operational Testing • Ensemble Display capability

  9. Operational Display Systems • AWIPS-II (Both Regional and National Scales) • The future platform • First phase to provide current functionality (based on OB9) migrated to new architecture • New Architecture: Service Oriented Architecture • Based on Java, Javascript, XML, *Note: Python may be used • Interaction with GFE • Google Map zoom capability • Second phase will include extensions to new capability, including new display methods for ensemble data

  10. Research Display Systems • ALPS (Developed at NOAA/ESRL/GSD) • Based on AWIPS • Plans to transition functionality to AWIPS-II research workstation • Dynamic calculation of standard ensemble values like mean, max, spread • Spaghetti Plots with dynamic mean and spread calculation • Color coding to support analysis of model core clustering

  11. Examples Research Display Systems • Universities • University of Washington (UWME and UW EnKF) • Penn State (MREF) • OU CAPS (SSEF) etc… • Government Labs • 3D method based on VIS5D (NCEP) • Human Derived Risk Forecasts (e.g. SPC) • Descision Support Probability Plots (FNMOC/AFWA) • Hurricane Track and Intensity Probabilities (e.g. NHC, GFDL, and ESRL/GSD) etc… Many are web-based displays of Postage Stamps, Mean-Spread, Probability Fields

  12. Web-based Display Systems • Facilitates interactive information, interoperability, user-centered designs, and collaboration • Researchers and Forecasters can evaluate products/displays without having an instance of the current workstation Examples: • NOAA/NWS Doppler RIDGE (Radar Integrated Display with Geospatial Elements) using Open Layers (http://radar.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2) • UKMO's popular Weather Map using Google Maps Layers(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/) • ESRL Display for tropical cyclone prediction using Google Maps and JavaScript (http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks)

  13. Courtesy of: Paula McCaslin Courtesy of: Paula McCaslin Example: ESRL Interactive Display for Ensemble Model Tropical Forecasts

  14. Benchmark • Ultimately - AWIPS II system • While AWIPS II is being developed, proxy benchmarks to consider: • NAWIPS • ALPS • NOAA Open Layers Web Solution

  15. System Requirements • Input data: • Standard model output formats • NetCDF • GRIB1 and 2 • Output data: • AWIPS-II NetCDF • CF-Compliant NetCDF (if different from AWIPS-II NetCDF) • GRIB 1 and 2 • Proposed Languages: • Products: Python, Fortran77 and 90, C, C++ • Display: Python, JavaScript, Java

  16. Major Tasks • Determine framework and optimal languages for modularity and plug-compatibility with N-AWIPS and AWIPS-II • Develop generalized framework for: • Product Generation • Display • Test system using methods already developed • Evaluate alternative methods • Set up procedures tech transfer to operational centers (i.e. NCEP, AFWA, NWS Offices and Centers, etc…).

  17. Year 1-4 Module Goals • Evaluate ensemble products for scientific integrity and human impact. • Develop interface to allow model output to plug into decision support products. • Develop interface to allow model output to plug into operational platforms including NAWIPS and AWIPS II. • Evaluate methods for determining probability of occurrence at grid point (i.e. straight calculation, weighted calculation, applying a smoothing filter before or after, downscaling or upscaling probability). • Explore ways to make spaghetti plots more meaningful.

  18. Tentative Timeline • Year 1 – Planning and Initial Investigation • Workshop feedback • DTC collaborations with HMT, HWT, HFIP, other • Web / Literature Search • Year 2 – System Development and Testing • Year 3 – System Implemented • Available for first extensive tests • Planning for extension of capability • Year 4 – R2O discussions with NCEP, NWS, AFWA, etc…

  19. Questions for Working Group • Which product generation and display methods show greatest promise? • Should we only be gearing toward AWIPS II or should we think beyond that to web-based displays for the research community? • At what point and how should we include social scientists in this portion of the testbed?

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