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Mike Stills Captain Bryn Jones Joe Kunches

Defining Aviation Space Weather User Requirements: Cross-Polar Working Group Activities. Mike Stills Captain Bryn Jones Joe Kunches United Airlines, USA SolarMetrics Limited, UK Space Weather Services Branch

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Mike Stills Captain Bryn Jones Joe Kunches

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  1. Defining Aviation Space Weather User Requirements:Cross-Polar Working Group Activities Mike StillsCaptain Bryn JonesJoe Kunches United Airlines, USA SolarMetrics Limited, UK Space Weather Services Branch NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA Aviation Session NOAA SWPC Space Weather Workshop Boulder, Colorado April 29, 2008

  2. AMS and SolarMetrics Policy Study • 3 Year Study Ceases Aug 2008 • Implementation Phase • User Requirements Development • FAA Aviation Weather Policy & Standards • Education

  3. Workshop Recommendation • Recommendation of Policy Workshop report: • The aviation industry needs to clearly define its requirements for space weather information and how it is incorporated into the operational decision making process. The ad-hoc Cross Polar Working Group (CPWG) should lead the process for defining these requirements, ensuring that all key stakeholders are present at requirements discussions.

  4. CPWG Space Weather sub-group • David Boteler (NRCAN – Geological Survey of Canada, ISES) • Bryn Jones (SolarMetrics) • Joseph Kunches (NOAA / SWPC) • William Murtagh (NOAA / SWPC) • Mike Stills (United Airlines) • Additional: • Steve Albersheim (FAA Aviation Weather Policy & Standards) • Genene Fisher (American Meteorological Society)

  5. ISES

  6. Aims of CPWG Space Weather Sub-Group • Deliver User Requirements document to: • CPWG for input from all members • FAA Aviation Weather Policy & Standards • Work with FAA and International Space Environment Service (ISES) to implement requirements and policy • FAA → ICAO • ISES → WMO

  7. Aviation User Requirements – work plan • Defining user requirements • Define & prioritise the impacts/hazards • Discuss operational decision-processes for each hazard • Draught Service/Product Wish Lists (Forecasting, Nowcasting, Warnings, Alerts, etc) • Communicating Space Weather information • Delivery methods • Formatting and integration with Terrestrial Weather Products (NextGen, SESAR) • Product Training

  8. Aviation User Requirements – current situation • Current references • OPSPEC B55 / FAA ETOPS – “Plan for Solar Flare Activity” • FAA CAMI – Advisory Circular 120-52 Radiation Exposure of Air Carrier Crewmembers • EU Directive 96/29 Article 42 – Protection of Air Crew • Current services – Very limited and/or non-industry specific! • NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre Scales • CAMI Solar Radiation Alert • Other ad-hoc web-based information

  9. Aviation User Requirements – Start Point! • Current Polar-Ops route scenario chosen • NextGen (SESAR) consideration • Impact based – i.e., user viewpoint, not science focused • HF Comms • Radiation (Avionics, Humans) • GPS / Navigation

  10. Aviation User Requirements – HF Comms • What is required? Impact-Hazard information • Severity (adapted NOAA Scales?) • Timing • Valid from • Duration or valid to • Region / Boundary • Lat / Long (Geographic <-> Geomagnetic) • Traffic flow management airspace regions

  11. Aviation User Requirements – HF Comms • When is it required? Information publish timelines • Additionally • Confidence Levels • Current Condition Reports

  12. Aviation User Requirements – HF Comms • How is it required? Communicating information • Pushed - Text • Pulled – Graphic & Text • Parameter Alerts – Integrated with Ops/Dispatch • Parameter Drop-offs – Integrated with Ops/Dispatch • Additionally: • Tx Wx terminology/formatting (WMO headers) • “SWCOM Polar 011212 Com5/5/R0 PROB30 TEMPO 0208 Com 1/1/R4 BEC 0810 COM 4/5/R1” • Web-based graphics: “4-D Wx Data Cube” (NextGen)

  13. Aviation User Requirements – HF Comms Max Useable Freq 00Z 12Z 00Z 06Z 18Z • Other considerations for HF • 3 Identified causes (PCA, Auroral Absorption, D-region Absorption) • Different causes allow different operational windows • Max useable frequency v time • Allocation of HF frequencies by regions • Adapt products/services to other airspace regions

  14. Aviation User Requirements - Radiation • Avionics • ISO Standards promoted • Humans • “Acceptable” Risks levels - needs agreement. How? • Additional parameter requirement - Altitude

  15. Aviation User Requirements – GPS / Nav • Hazards • Signal effect (Ionospheric delay) • Scintillation (ADS-B impacts) • Radio bursts • Satellite effects • Need information on real-time GPS errors (horizontal, vertical) • WAAS, LAAS office input on requirements • NextGen requirements

  16. Education Needs? • CPWG Education User Requirements • How? What? Who? • ISES (WMO), FAA, Other?

  17. Highlights & Full Report online at: www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy www.solarmetrics.com CPWG SW sub-group activities: DBoteler@NRCan.qc.ca Bryn.Jones@solarmetrics.com Joseph.Kunches@noaa.gov Mike.Stills@United.com

  18. The End Space Weather Issues and Tools Captain Bryn Jones SolarMetrics Limited

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