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Climate Modeling Activity in the MRI

2010.10.19, WGNE26, Tokyo. Climate Modeling Activity in the MRI. Akio Kitoh Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute. MRI’s role. JMA. WMO, IOC, etc. Reports. Research Programs. disaster mitigation Programs. Technical Support. Contribution. etc. MRI.

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Climate Modeling Activity in the MRI

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  1. 2010.10.19, WGNE26, Tokyo Climate Modeling Activity in the MRI Akio Kitoh Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute

  2. MRI’s role JMA WMO, IOC, etc. Reports Research Programs disaster mitigation Programs Technical Support Contribution etc. MRI Forecast Research Climate Research Typhoon Research Physical Meteorology Research Atmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Research Meteorological Satellite and Observation System Research Seismology and Volcanology Research Oceanographic Research Geochemical Research

  3. 1. Earth System Model (MRI-ESM; MRI-CGCM3)2. Super-high-resolution Atmospheric Models (AGCM-20km and NHRCM-5km)

  4. Climate Model Development at MRI Now in the 5th Phase JMA’s Global Warming Research Project 2nd Phase (FY1995-1999) 3rd Phase (FY2000-2004) 4th Phase (FY2005-2009) Global A-O Coupled Model Earth System Model CGCM1 A: 4°×5° L15 O: 2°×2.5° L21 CGCM2.0 A: T42 L30 O: 2°×2.5° L23 CGCM2.3 A: T42 L30 O: 2°×2.5° L23 CGCM3.0 A: TL95 L48 O: 0.5°×1° L50 CGCM3.1 A: TL159 L48 O: 0.5°×1° L51 MASINGAR MRI-CCM Chemical Transport Model 2nd Report 1995 3rd Report 2001 4th Report 2007 IPCC AR5 2013 Regional Climate RCM（40km） RCM（20km） RCM（20km） NHRCM（4km） CRCM（20km） Global Warming Projection Report Vol 1-3 （2006-2009） Vol 4 （2001） Vol 5 （2003） Vol 6 （2005） Vol 7 （2007） Ver 1 （2003） Ver 2 （2004） Japanese Standard Climate Scenario

  5. MASINGAR Aerosol Chemical Transport Model MRI-CCM2 Atmos. Chemical Climate Model Sulfate, BC, OC, Dust, Sea-salt Ozone (Strat. + Tropo.) Atmosphere Cloud Microphysics interaction with aerosols Land/Vegetation Lake Snow on Ice sheet River Sea ice Ocean Biogeochemical Carbon Cycle Ocean T42 (~280km) TL95 (~180km) MRI-CGCM3 MRI Earth System Model GSMUV Land Ecosystem Carbon Cycle AGCM TL159 (~120km) L48 (0.01hPa) CO2 CO2 OGCM Tripolar 1°× 0.5° Coupler ‘Scup’ MRI.COM Each component can be coupled with different resolutions

  6. Ozone: reproducibility and future projection PRM5 TOMS Ozone hole area (m2 × 10-12) obs model Total ozone seasonal change Change in ozone hole area Tropospheric ozone Surface ozone (ppbv) 2007.05.09 06Z

  7. Aerosol optical thickness MODIS retrieval: 2001～2006 mean Model simulation: 2001～2006 mean

  8. MRI model resolutions

  9. Schedule of the CMIP5 simulations with the MRI-CGCM3 and MRI-ESM1

  10. 1. Earth System Model (MRI-ESM; MRI-CGCM3)2. Super-high-resolution Atmospheric Models(AGCM-20km and NHRCM-5km)

  11. Needs for high resolution models for adaptation studies • representation of topography depends on resolution (land-sea distribution, mountain height, snow-rain threshold, …)• low resolution models often fail to reproduce precipitation systems such as tropical cyclones, stationary front systems and blocking• high resolution models have better mean climate

  12. JMA Numerical Analysis and Prediction System

  13. 20-km mesh AGCM as the highest resolution climate model HighRes climate model JMA seasonal fcst Real topography JMA extended fcst HighRes for AR5 ← Climate models for IPCC AR5 (2013) → ← Climate models for IPCC AR4 (2007) →

  14. Future change in NH blocking frequency (JJA) Matsueda and Palmer 60km 20km 180km 120km The higher horizontal resolution is required to accurately simulate Euro-Atlantic blocking. The Euro-Atlantic blocking frequency is predicted to show a significant decrease in the future.

  15. Precipitation change over Europe (JJA) CMIP3 models MRI AGCM Matsueda and Palmer wet 180km (climate) Unreliable? similar less blocking dry robust Much weaker signals at high resolution 20km (NWP) CMIP3 models project wet (dry) conditions over north (south) Europe. Robust signals from CMIP3 models.

  16. Indian summer monsoon rainfall IMD observation 20-km model Orographic rainfall is successfully reproduced Rajendran and Kitoh (2008) Current Science

  17. Time-slice experiments: 20km/60km JMA : Operational global NWP model from Nov 2007 MRI : Next generation climate model Resolution: TL959(20km)/TL319(60km) with 60 layers Time integration: Semi-Lagrangian Scheme (Yoshimura, 2004) Cumulus convection: Prognostic Arakawa-Schubert Three time periods Present (1979-2003), Near future (2015-2039), Future (2075-2099) How to prescribe future SSTs For 60-km model, ensemble runs • Four different SST anomalies • Three I.C. ensembles each Use CMIP3 multi-model SST changes

  18. HWDI 60-km vs 20-km 60-km model ensemble 20-km model near future end 21c HWDI: heat wave duration

  19. R5d 60-km vs 20-km 60-km model ensemble 20-km model near future Heavy precipitation increases even in near-future but not statistically significant; it is significant almost everywhere in Asia at the end of the 21st century end 21c There is model resolution dependency; 20-km model projects larger increase in RX5D R5d: greatest 5-day total precipitation no significance test for 20-km model

  20. Tropical cyclones MEXT Kyo-sei Project (FY2002-2006) and KAKUSHIN Program (FY2007-2011) using the Earth Simulator by the MRI group It is likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. [IPCC AR4]

  21. Wind Profile Change（at max wind speed） Vertical p level Sample Num=1035 Sample Num=937 Distance from center unit：m/s ・Large increase in strong wind radius at mid level of troposphere ・Large change of inner-core wind velocity ＃gray color=no significant difference

  22. Streamflow 20-km model: Present Future-Present • Increasing flood risk over the Parana river basin• Decreasing streamflow in the Andean mountains DecreaseIncrease

  23. Cooperation activities of the MRI group(by Earth Simulator computed model outputsfor adaptation studies) Adaptation study in Coastal Zones of Caribbean countries: Barbados(one, 2005), Belize (one, 2005) Adaptation studies in Colombiancoastal areas, high mountain ecosystems: Colombia (two, 2005; two, 2009) Adaptation to Climate Impacts in the Coastal Wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico: Mexico (two, 2006) Adaptation to Rapid Glacier Retreat in the Tropical Andes: Peru(one, 2006; 2010?), Ecuador (one, 2006; one, 2009), Bolivia (one, 2006) Amazon Dieback: Brazil (two, 2008) Cooperation under the JICA(Japan International Cooperation Agency)funds • Adaptation studies in agriculture in Argentina: Argentina (three, 2008) • Adaptation studies in monsoon Asia:Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam (one each, 2008 & 2009) • Adaptation studies in Yucatan wetland: Mexico (three, 2009) • Adaptation studies in South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay (2010 & 2011) Cooperation under the World Bank funds Other collaborations with India, Korea, Thailand, USA, Spain, …

  24. Kakushin Team-Extremes Time-Slice Experiments Time slice experiments Prediction of regional climate by one-way nested NHM CMIP3 AOGCMs 20km,60km AGCM Regional Climate Model NHM5km NHM2/1km A A SST Nested in the AGCM20km Lower B.C. Nested in the NHM5km Projected SST O AGCM/NHM are climate model versions of the JMA operational NWP models

  25. JMA NHM

  26. Changes in pdf/cdf of precipitation (Jun-Oct) pdf/cdf of daily precipitation (all Japan) pdf/cdf of hourly precipitation (all Japan) End 21c End 21c Near-future Near-future Present Present Near-future: No change in daily precipitation Increase of strong hourly precipitation →increase of short-term strong rain End 21c: Increase of strong both of daily and hourly precipitation daily 40% increase for > 150mm/day hourly 60% increase for > 50mm/hour

  27. Upward motion (top 3): NHM5km a) taller convection Present c) F P Mean 3rd Updraft (m/s) harder to occur S N Pacific Ocean Japan Japan Sea LCL： 463→468m LCL-LFC： 76→83hPa CAPE: 1139→ 1538J/kg CIN: 26→30J/kg b) Future F P DRY Mean Top3 Updraft (m/s) Pacific Ocean Japan Japan Sea

  28. Schematic of changing characteristics Dry Higher SST Supply of high qeair mass at the low level More intense convections Larger convective instability Increment of intense precipitation Delay of the northward movement of the Baiu front Jet stream will shift southward.

  29. MRI-CGCM2 Relationship between GW and ENSO Precip Future–Present (Jul) Precip El Niño–La Niña (Jul)

  30. Comparisons of locations and values of heavy rainfall events NHM5km Present NHM5km Future Obs >500mm/day >1000mm/day >300mm/day

  31. July Precipitation Characteristics: precip・wet days・SDII OBS(APHRO) AGCM-20km RCM-5km RCM-2km We find that RCM-5km is applicable for projections of future changes in daily precipitation, while RCM-2km for hourly precipitation # all data are averaged in 20-km grid

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