A National Model for Vietnam--Migration, Integration and Project Evaluation

1. Bangkok September, 2012

2. A National Model for Vietnam--Migration, Integration and Project Evaluation Bangkok September, 2012

3. The Assignment • Model Migration • STRADA- CUBE VOYAGER • Model Validation against Traffic Counts • Forecast Usage on the proposed Expressway • Economic Integration TIME FRAME 6 Weeks Bangkok September, 2012

4. Model Migration • Matrices • Networks • General • The Final Model Structure Bangkok September, 2012

5. The Project MULTI MODAL TRANSPORT MODEL OF VIETNAM • Vietnam Statistics: • Year Population GDP • 84.8 38.7 • 2022 95.9 86.7 (Mil) (Bil$) Bangkok September, 2012

6. STRADA • SYSTEM • FOR • TRAFFIC DEMAND ANALYSIS • Developed by • JICA • (Japan International Cooperation Agency) Bangkok September, 2012

7. STRADA PROGRAMS JCMA03 Combined Modal Split and Assignment Model JDAM03 Disaggregate Model JEVL03 Evaluator JGIS03 GIS Converter JHWR03 Highway Reporter JICA03 Intersection Analyzer JINA03 Incremental Assignment JLPA03 LP Assignment JMTM03 Matrix Manipulator JNTE03 Network Editor JODB03 OD Calibrator JSUE03 Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment JTUE03 Time of Day User Equilibrium Assignment JTLE03 Transit Line Editor JTRA03 Transit Assignment JUEA03 User Equilibrium Assignment JTMB03 Trip Matrix Builder Bangkok September, 2012

8. Matrix Conversion Strada Format Output to CSV then sort to DBF File Format---CSV Read into CUBE FILEI MATI[1] = "C:\VIETNAM\MODEL\DISTRIBUTION\DIMAT00B.DBF", Pattern=IJM:V, FIELDS=origin,destin,0,car,bus,inland,railway,air Bangkok September, 2012

9. Estimation of Base 2006 Matrix Bangkok September, 2012

10. Network Conversion Step 1 - GIS Converter of STRADA~MIF Shape for each mode-Strada Network Step 2 - GIS Converter~Convert to Arcview Network Step 3 – Develop Database Program to Modify some fields Step 4 – Load Network Database together with Shape File into Voyager, and link with other GIS data such as zone boundaries. WE WILL SEE A DETAILED PICTURE OF THE FULL NETWORK LATER Bangkok September, 2012

11. The Multimodal Network MULTI MODAL TRANSPORT MODEL OF VIETNAM Bangkok September, 2012

12. Model Parameters and Equations • Parameters for Trip Generation, Trip Distribution and Modal Split were taken from the earlier study report documentation • The modules were developed for both person and freight trips • Base Voyager Model was re-run to ensure outcome of the same results Bangkok September, 2012

13. The National Multimodal Transport Model Incorporates a Matrix Estimation Procedure via CUBE Analyst Freight and Person Trips Road, Rail, Water and Air

14. An Economic Module • Overview • The Procedure • Economic Parameters • The Voyager Code Bangkok September, 2012

15. An Overview Transport Model Economic Analysis TOGETHER Post Transport Model Economic Analysis Transport Model Output in the form of pcu-km and pcu-hr Passenger Model Output in the form of passenger-km and passenger hours

16. Why an Economic Module? • Often the Transport Model is removed from economic analysis • The Economic Analysis is a separate program or spreadsheet analysis • BUT WHAT IF? • Establish an Economic Framework • Each Model Run produces an economic cost or financial cost or revenue • Previously we have done this using sometimes add on programs Bangkok September, 2012

17. North Vietnam—Detailed Study Area showing Project for Evaluation Toll Expressway Link Between China and Hanoi

18. National transport model

19. Economic Procedure • THREE INPUT LOOKUP TABLES • Linked to Economic Growth for a Scenario • Vehicle Operating Costs by Link Class • Accident Costs • Key Output File • Link File with Costs appended for each Link • Economic Summary File, Economic Cost of Project • Pilot Program • Creates a File name and directory for economic costs for a particular scenario eg

20. Creation of Economic Curves • Prepared for 11 Vehicle Classes • HDM4 Relationships incorporated from REDS (Roads Economic Decision Model) • Vehicle Operating Cost calculated for a specified range of speeds for pre determined road conditions such as roughness, gradient and curvature

21. An Interlude ---The HDM-4 Model, a tool of the World Bank • Analytical tool for engineering andeconomic assessment of- road investments and maintenance- transport pricing and regulation • Physical and economic relationships derivedfrom extensive research on road deterioration,the effects of maintenance activities, and vehicle operation and user costs Bangkok September, 2012

22. Economic Parameters and Conclusion of Procedure

23. Cost Lookup Table Input Operating Cost Curves as a Function of Speed Cost = a+b*Speed+c*Speed2 11 Vehicle Classes Three Non Expressway Terrain Classes-Mountainous, Rolling and Flat and one Expressway Class Bangkok September, 2012

24. Vehicle Operating Cost Curve as a Function of Speed Note: This is an estimation for specified gradient, curvature and roughness (IRI) value of 5. Futura 07 Palm Springs Bangkok September, 2012

25. Summary Output File Bangkok September, 2012

26. Creation of With and Without Project for Estimation of Economic Benefits Produce four Different Files of With and Without Expressway for Specified Toll Level Bangkok September, 2012

27. Output Scenario Names FILE STRUCTURE

28. The Voyager Code tolla={Toll_Rate} toll_str=ltrim(str(tolla,4,0)) a='VND' subdir=a+toll_str ; year=str({Year},4,0) yr1='Yr' yr=yr1+substr(year,3,2) ; expx='_Exp_' If('{SCENARIO_SHORTNAME}'='NoExpressway')expx='_NoExp_' ; gen='NoGen' If({Generation}=1)gen='WithGen' ; ;Prepare File Name in Three steps to specify year and with or without expressway or generation ; Format-- Yr12_Exp_WithGen ; write into subdirectory of toll class ; filena=yr+expx filenam=filena+gen ; ext='.csv' filename=filenam+ext *MD c:\vietnam\economic_tr\@subdir@ *copy "{SCENARIO_DIR}\ECO_COST.CSV" c:\vietnam\economic_tr\@subdir@\@filename@ Bangkok September, 2012

29. Project Status • CURRENT STATUS • Economic Cost estimated for each scenario • With and without Cases from CUBE Voyager written to CSV Files • Economic evaluation Spread sheet still not in Voyager but linked directly to Voyager output files • Simply Open Economic Spreadsheet and Update Links to Produce EIRR for any scenario Bangkok September, 2012

30. Thank you Bangkok September, 2012