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Biography of Energy Systems

The New Paradigma: Social Dimensions and Indicators of Social Scenarios Uwe Pfenning, DLR Stuttgart. Biography of Energy Systems.

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Biography of Energy Systems

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  1. The New Paradigma:SocialDimensionsandIndicatorsofSocial ScenariosUwe Pfenning, DLR Stuttgart

  2. BiographyofEnergy Systems • Comparinghistoricalcontextsofenergysupplysystems:a) manychangesbefore in technology(exchangingprimaryenergyresourcesfrom fossile to fossile) (implementationofnuclear power within same administrationpath) (drivenbypoliticalactsanddevelopment (f.e. oilcrisis 1972)b) fewchanges in politicalstructures(generatingstatecontrollfor private investigationsandinvestment) (implementationofmarketdesignsandeconomicalliberalisation (EU))c) nochanges in societalcontexts (ownership, participation, responsibilityandinvolvementa.s.o.)

  3. Drivers ofChangesand (partly) Innovations • Political-economicalaimsforsecurityofenergysupplyanddecreasingdependencyofoil (1972) • Ecologicalissuesgettingpublicattention (limitsofgrowth, sustainability) • SocialMovements (Anti-AKW partlypeacemovement) which also • changingtheparlamentarysystemandthereforebringing in recursivefunctionstochangethepoliticalstructure

  4. Focus ofDefinitions • Energiewende meansRenewablesbecomesthedominatingtechnologies in theentireenergysupplysystem (power andheating) • The energysupplysystem(s) hastobedefined in socialissuesconcerninginvolvedactors, collectivedecisionmakingprocesses, andscienceasmoderator

  5. The paradigmaofrenewablesI: Decentralisationandownership • Technological optionsfor individual power generating (PV) • Technological optionsforcollective power generating (Wind) • Technological optionsforlocalautonomy & independencyforenergysupply (power + heat) • forthefirst time useofextraterrestrialresourcesforenergy(solar energy) Possiblesocietalchanges in ownershipandinvestmentsfordecentral power stations, and also partlyforcentral power „parks“ (wind parks). New imagesandmythstoward infinite resourcesforenergysupply (f.e. contradictionalforbetterenergyefficiency)

  6. The paradigmaofrenewables II:Forcingnewcommunicationstructuresforadministration • Need fornewsystemicalapproachestocombine power generation („transformation“), storage (becauseofvolatityandfluctuation), andtechnicaldistributionof power betweenregionsa) savingthesecurityofdistributiontoavoidtechnicalblackoutsb) makesuresufficient power capacityforconsumptionpeaksc) coordinatingthethreetechnologicalsystems (need-triad) Technical needsforcednewcommunicationstructuresforcoordinatingthe relevant actors in all threesectors, i.e. neweconomicaladministrationbodiesto deal withcapacitiesofproduction, storagesandnet-distritbution

  7. The Paradigma forRenewable III:Externalpressuresfromscienceandeconomics • Scientificallyknowledgeandliteracya) localeco-systems canbeaffectedby humaninterventions (climate, acid rain a.s.o.) leadingtoaskforanddiscuss individual responsibilityfor environmental protectionb) mediaeffectsforagendasettingottopicsaffectsvalidityofmasssurveysandpublicdiscussion • Economicalintegrationandmarket designa) saving fossile resourcesforbetterpurposesforeconomicsb) criticalmassofRenewablesEnergyinsidethe power marketsystem (i.e. 27%)c) implementatingownrenewablelobbybyimpactsofemployment, ratioofinvestments, stocksa.s.o.

  8. All Electricsociety Actors Systems Social Arena coordination Collectiv‘s & Society E-Mobility f(x) market Individuals Government & States Heating f(x) control Geothermie Household Biomasse EVUs, & companies Railway Traffic CSP Solar Economy Groups and Lobbys Wind Offshore Public lightening Atom Exit Researchers Wasser Öl BHKW Gas Kohle CES 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

  9. Social Scenarios • Social Scenarios means …a) toapplycommunicationpathstowork out a common sense withparticipationof different interestgroups (i.e. a socialarena)b) simulating different decisionpathsofthe different actorsforcongruentordiscongruenteffectstothecommon sense modelc) applymathematicalandstatisticalproceduresforempiricaltendenciesofthe different decision (i.e. Meta-Analyses, StructuralEquation Modeling, CIB and Expert-Delphi, Social Surveys andDiscourseformats)

  10. Overwiewaboutdimensionsandscientificdisciplines

  11. Communication Paths • innovationofRenewablesarebeingplacedbypoliticyandpolitics • Strong tendenciestoestablishownlobbyforreasonsof high competition • Politics reactsas a collectionof also interestgroupsby different positionsofparties, • informal convention after Fukushima byfederalparliamentdecisions, informal politicalcoalition • The sceneisdominatedbymanylobbygroupswithoutanycommonforumforconventions Politics delivertaskofgeneratingcommonconventionstoscience, but thereare different codesoflegitimatingconventions (knowledgebased versus majorityterms)

  12. Need for Legitimation • Introducingrenewables in thesystemneed individual legitimation. • Forms oflegitimationareacceptance, tolerance, use, andparticipationa) acceptance = belief in the „good“ sense b) tolerance = convincedbymajoritydecisionc) use = believe in sense andpracticed) participation = processofgeneratingbeliefs

  13. Conferencesas a Social Arena Thankstoyouforyourattentionandpatienceforlistening

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