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The Effects of Climate Change on Priority Conservation Locations in the Bay Area

The Effects of Climate Change on Priority Conservation Locations in the Bay Area. A case study by Andrea Blue, Seth Lalonde and Christina Moore. Social Values and Goals.

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The Effects of Climate Change on Priority Conservation Locations in the Bay Area

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  1. The Effects of Climate Change on Priority Conservation Locations in the Bay Area A case study by Andrea Blue, Seth Lalonde and Christina Moore

  2. Social Values and Goals • To preserve suitable habitat for the species of interest in the Bay Area for the next century considering shifts in species distribution under three potential climate scenarios. • To identify suitable land area for future vineyard development in the coming century considering distribution shifts with climate change. • Planning Region: The nine county area that makes up the Bay Area Open Spaces Council region of interest for all the concerned species. • Vineyards Planning Region: Sonoma County

  3. Species of Interest Bay Area Checkerspot Butterfly, Behren’s Silver Spot Butterfly, CA Tiger Salamander, CA Red Legged Frog, Alameda Whipsnake, Tamalpais Oak

  4. Cultural Interest Vineyards of Sonoma County

  5. Methods: Inputs • Six species selected: ~perceived sensitivity to climate change ~majority of species selection is exothermic ~threatened or endangered status ~current distribution in ROI • Planning Horizon: 2071-2100 • Three climate scenarios: ~current: based on historical climate data ~GFDLA2: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab Model, NOAA ~PCMA2: Parallel Climate Model, DOE & NCAR ~A2 represents medium-high emission scenario in models

  6. Methods: Modeling • Maxent Distribution Modeling: ~distributions: 6 species of interest and vineyards ~current, GFDLA2 and PCMA2 climate variables ~Soil environmental variable included for vineyards, butterflies, and tamalpais oak. ~Current species observation points from CNDDB database also used as input.

  7. Current, GFDLA and PCMA Climate Models: Species Distribution Shifts in Maxent: CA Red Legged Frog

  8. Methods: Modeling GIS Filters: ~ Filtered out areas of current urban development to restrict future species distribution into development ~ Filtered out vineyard areas where slope greater than 25%

  9. Methods: Modeling • Marxan Reserve Area Modeling: ~ Multiple climate change combination scenarios run (50/50, 75/25, 25/75, 100) ~With and without Open Spaces Council priorities (fine vs course filter analysis) ~Target 90% of total individual species distribution area GIS Filters: ~Only planning units selected 100% of iterations used to model ideal planning area for species of interest and vineyards. ~Intersection of planning units under various climate scenarios identified for priority planning areas. ~Intersection of planning units for vineyards and species identified for potential planning priority conflicts.

  10. Upland Priorities vs. Climate Priorities Current Climate

  11. Upland Priorities vs. Climate Priorities GFDLA2

  12. Climate Priorities: Vineyard and Species Reserve Overlap Area, GFDLA2

  13. Significance of FindingsModeling Issues • Conflicting goals between Vineyard development and species distribution shifts. • Difference in priorities between Uplands Conservation Goals and Climate Change only Goals (species selection specific). • Some bias in species selection for Climate Change conservation goals. • Upland Goals Project identifies more reserve selection sites than the Climate Change project.

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