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EPITA IT Markets Basic Finance and Marketing. Oct 18th 2006 Jean-Noël GORGE. Previous week V.I.P. (Very Important Points). Euros 10 9 1700 270 230 75. Macro economy. France GNP (PIB in French) Nation’s Budget Investments (households excluded) IT expenditures (household excl.).
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EPITAIT MarketsBasic Finance and Marketing Oct 18th 2006 Jean-Noël GORGE
Euros 109 1700 270 230 75 Macro economy • France • GNP (PIB in French) • Nation’s Budget • Investments (households excluded) • IT expenditures (household excl.)
Investments and Growth 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 +3,5% +1,8% 0,0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2004 -5,0 PIB Investissement -10,0
IT and job creation • France 2006 • 60 to 70 000 recruitment's in IT • Of which 15 to 20 000 net job creations
IT employment perspective papy-boom 58 000 IT Pros will retire in France from now to 2015* creation of 149 000 new jobs positions in IT from now to 2015* Scarcity of new graduates less students taking sciences 207 000 new positions (net !) to be filled in France by 2015* Where to go to find candidates ? How to attract and retain ? Competition tougher than ever between IT and other industries
Consequences for you : • For 3 to 4 years (-> 2009 ?) market conditions are favorable to be recruited and promoted • During the next ten years (one or 2 technical cycles) you must take every opportunity of developing other skills, talents or experiences. • If you remain a «techy» only, your chances of being obsolete are maximum • Management • Supervision • Company's functions and businesses
25,0 20,0 15,0 +6 à +8% (e) 10,0 5,0 +3,5% +1,8% 0,0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2004 -5,0 PIB L&S Investissement -10,0
Cycles ? Probably ! • Personal opinion, based on experience • Duration : more or less 10 years • Time it takes for a major technology to roll all along Gartner Group’s curve
A little bit of history… Towards integration…
Cycles • +/- a decade (10 years) • During first 2 years, leaders converge in their technical decisions, which in turn are adopted by followers : massification • Less players on supply side (mergers…) • Similar behaviors and decisions within «major-accounts» (users – clients) • Following same learning curve (cf Gartner), some ahead • “Domino’s effect” • Unit costs are dropping as time pasts • Increasing yields
Cycle phase HW Mature Techno. Emerging techno. Users 60's 70's 80's 90's 2000's
Components Cycle’s phase HW Computers 360 & Co Mature Techno. Punched Cards. LSI Emerging techno. Caract. Displays VLSITapes, discsOS Batch Users 10 1 60's 70's 80's 90's 2000's
Components Componentsintegration Cycle’s phase HW Computers 360 & Co 370's Mature Techno. Punched Cards. LSI Caract. Displays. VLSITapes, discsOS Batch Emerging techno. Caract. Displays VLSITapes, discsOS Batch Point to point MicrocodeOSI 7 DBtime-sharing Users 10 1 10 2 60's 70's 80's 90's 2000's
Components Componentsintegration Systems’s Integration Cycle’s phase HW Computers 360 & Co 370's Minis Mature Techno. Punched Cards. LSI Caract. Displays. VLSITapes, discsOS Batch Point to point MicrocodeOSI 7 DBtime-sharing Emerging techno. Caract. Displays VLSITapes, discsOS Batch Point to point MicrocodeOSI 7 DBtime-sharing Microprocess.Graphic DisplaysLAN DB-R Client/Server Users 10 1 10 2 10 3 60's 70's 80's 90's 2000's
Components Componentsintegration Systems’s Integration Services Integration Cycle’s phase HW Computers 360 & Co 370's Minis Micros Mature Techno. Punched Cards. LSI Caract. Displays. VLSITapes, discsOS Batch Point to point MicrocodeOSI 7 DBtime-sharing Microprocess.Graphic DisplaysLAN DB-R Client/Server Emerging techno. Caract. Displays VLSITapes, discsOS Batch Point to point MicrocodeOSI 7 DBtime-sharing Microprocess.Graphic DisplaysLAN DB-R Client/Server WAN, fibre opt. Internet, IP HTML, XML Objects Users 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 100% of Internal users 60's 70's 80's 90's 2000's
Components Componentsintegration Systems’s Integration Services Integration Business Integration Cycle’s phase HW Computers 360 & Co 370's Minis Micros Internet Mature Techno. Punched Cards. LSI Caract. Displays. VLSITapes, discsOS Batch Point to point MicrocodeOSI 7 DBtime-sharing Microprocess.Graphic DisplaysLAN DB-R Client/Server WAN, Fiber optics Internet,IP HTML, XML Objects Emerging techno. Caract. Displays VLSITapes, discsOS Batch Point to point MicrocodeOSI 7 DBtime-sharing Microprocess.Graphic DisplaysLAN DB-R Client/Server WAN, fibre opt. Internet, IP HTML, XML Objects Wireless3G… Users 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 100% of Internal users 10 6 Internal and external 60's 70's 80's 90's 2000's
Towards integration Micros( Client/Server, ERP) Minis & department's IT (VAR Digital, HP, DG) MainframesCobol 370CICS etc Assembler & Co 70's 60's 80's 90's 2000's Each layer comes on top, previous layers never disappear !!!(See millenium bug)
Digital Times Digital Era Industrial Era Napoléon III Railways Chirac Internet Networked Organizations Pulled flows « On demand » Fast and lean Information Immaterial Mass production, « Pushed » flows Raw Materials Heavy « tangible » investments Taylorism/Marxism
Industrial times IT challenges Design/Engineering Design/Engineering Solution = "re-foundation"= ERP Manufacturing Problem = Integration Logistics Purchasing Sales Mktg-Comm Finance
Digital times IT systems Services Integration Business Integration Cycle’s phase Micros Internet HW Microprocess.Graphic DisplaysLAN DB-R Client/Server WAN, Fiber optics Internet,IP HTML, XML Objects Mature Techno. WAN, fibre opt. Internet, IP HTML, XML Objects Wireless3G… Emerging techno. 10 4 100% of Internal users 10 6 Internal and external Users 90's 2000's
Digital times IT systems Need for external integration Company B xxNet Conception Fabrication Logistique Achats Ventes Mktg-Comm Finance Company A Design/Engineering Design/Engineering Needfor Internal Integration Manufacturing Logistics Purchasing Sales Mktg-Comm Finance
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