Patterns of trade

1. Patterns of trade How to work with trade data Frank van Tongeren Based on presentations by Henk Kelholt and Thom Achterbosch

2. What is a trade database? • Products • Reporting countries • Partner countries • Periods • Streams • Value/quantity/… Examples of trade databases: ITC/WTO: PCTAS www.intracen.org/pctas/pctas00.htm EUROSTAT: COMEXTwww.dsidata.com/products/comext.htm UN :COMTRADE

3. Products HS Harmonized System 6 digits 8000 products 01 - Live animals 0101 - Live horses, donkeys, mules 010111 - Pure bred live horses SITC Standard International Trade Classification 5 digits 5150 products 0 - Food and live animals 00 - Live animals 001 - Live animals 0011 - Bovine animals, live 00111 - Bovine animals, for breeding

4. Countries Reporters • countries who register their imports and exports, the commodity and the country of origin or country of destination (depending on the database between 10 and 150) Partners • countries of origin or destination (usually ± 200) Number of reporting countries • The higher the number of reporters, the larger the share in world trade that is covered by the database

5. Periods – Streams – Value – Quantity Periods - usually years or months Streams - imports or exports Value - in thousands or millions of US$ or € Quantity - tons and/or special units, e.g. number, pairs, cubic meter

6. Example The value of the export of wheat from Canada to Iran in the year 2000 Version 1 • Product = Wheat • Reporting country = 124 Canada • Partner country = 364 Iran • Period = 2000 • Stream = export • Value = dollar x 1000 Version 2 • Product = Wheat • Reporting country = 364 Iran • Partner country = 124 Canada • Period = 2000 • Stream = import • Value = dollar x 1000

7. Assignments Using the trade data provided in IRAN_trade.XLS • Which are the main (broad) import commodities, which are the main export commodities? • What is the development over time of the trade balance (X-M) for Food products? • Which patterns can we see? • Which are the main trade partners for food exports and imports?

8. Why TSA-express? Time Series Analysis Express • Different data sources • Speed, performance, ease of use • Research => exploration of data • Meta data/information TSA by: Dr. Wietse Dol - econometrics & senior software consultant/developer Henk Kelholt - trade data specialist full TSA manual: www.lei.dlo.nl/tsa wietse.dol@wur.nl henk.kelholt@wur.nl

9. Food and live animals = Live Animals + Meat, meat preparations + … + Misc.Edible products etc 0 = 00 + 01 + … + 09 This is best shown in a tree Building trees Products/countries/periods have relationships, e.g.

10. Relations, relevance and functions All items in a tree have: • a period of relevance • a function that specifies how the item is calculated 058 - Belgium/Luxembourg • Period of relevance 1-1-1993 until 31-12-1998 • Function: available in database 058a - Belgium & Luxembourg • Period of relevance 1-1-1993 until 31-12-9999 • Function: add children when they are valid (period of relevance)

11. The program • With the tree elements you select, TSA-express knows the minimal dataset that has to be collected to present the query (i.e. walk through the tree until you only have items with the function: available in database). Load the data of these elements to memory and perform the function calculations in the memory (using sparse matrices and pointer techniques) • All functions are calculated at the moment the viewer needs them • Speed is more important than disk size or memory usage, i.e. trees use a lot of memory, but show what you are doing • Using special software for speed and performance (tree, grid, graphics). Using special memory techniques for sparse matrices. Programmed modular in Delphi using objects. • Oracle or Access XP database (Access is faster)

12. User friendly • Using trees => making a query is very visual/easy • Using a username/password all settings are saved for next time usage • You can define your own groups of products/countries etc. • You can save selections/queries, i.e. makes periodical publications easy • Multiple languages in database (trees and reports) as well as in the Graphical User Interface • The multidimensional data viewer makes the report you want • Save report to many formats (Word, Excel, CSV, HTML) or just print it, make a graphic, portfolio plot, trade balance… • Speed is important • We have developed data loading routines (makes it easy to add a new data for COMEXT and PCTAS)

13. TSA table

14. TSA graphics

15. TSA portfolio analysis Indonesian exports to World: - 5.5% USA imports from Indonesia: +0.24%

16. TSA trade balance

17. Things to keep in mind 1. • Do not focus on a single product code. Look also at other products from the same group (or level of aggregation) and look at one level of aggregation higher. • If possible study the exports of country A to country B and the imports of country B from country A. • Quantities at a high level of aggregation may be the sum of very different products. A slight change in the composition of the group may cause a great change in the total quantity.

18. Things to keep in mind 2. • Values have been converted from national currencies into US$. Fluctuations in the exchange rate influence statistical values • Values are always f.o.b. (exports) or c.i.f. (imports) and are exclusive of subsidies or taxes

19. National currency and US$

20. Value and quantity

21. Value/quantity

22. Tariff data • Main sources • UN TRAINS • WTO CTS • Accessible through WITS (World Integrated Trade Solution) • World Bank initiative

23. Tariff data: snowploughs in Bangladesh

24. Tariff data: snowploughs in Bangladesh

25. Assignment • Compare avg tariffs agriculture (SITC 0) – non-agriculture Iran. Which is higher? 2003 • Within agric. What is the pattern (crops, lvstck…) • Changes over time 2000 – 2004?