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Multilevel Modeling: Why, When and How?. Frank Dong 1-9-2013. Outline. Why do we need the Multilevel Modeling When do we need Multilevel Modeling How can we conduct Multilevel Modeling analysis (live demo). Background.
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Multilevel Modeling: Why, When and How? Frank Dong 1-9-2013
Outline • Why do we need the Multilevel Modeling • When do we need Multilevel Modeling • How can we conduct Multilevel Modeling analysis (live demo)
Background • Everyone knows about ordinary least squares regression, aka, linear regression • The formula is • We typically assume the error term has a normal distribution N(0,) • Everyone knows how to do it in SPSS
Problems • Ordinary least squares analysis does not solve everything • There are often times where data present certain hierarchy • For example, the performance of students on the test score may depends on the students themselves, but also may depends on schools • School effects are often ignored
Purpose of this presentation • To introduce the idea of multilevel modeling • Not everything can be done with the linear regression • Live demonstration of how to conduct multilevel analysis in SPSS.
An example • This example is from a book called Multilevel Statistical Models, 4th Edition by Harvey Goldstein • Have data on 728 elementary students • N=50 schools • Interested in the following question: Does the student’s 8-year math score predict the 11-year math score? • Y= 11-year math score • X=8-year math score
Inappropriate Analysis • For each school, • The overall model becomes • We have 50 pairs of to estimate, one for each school • We also have a variance term, to estimate
Issues • Too many unknown (N=2*50+1) parameters • Unable to compare school performance if we desires to do so • Some schools have fewer students than other schools
Solutions • Multilevel Modeling • Instead of estimating N=2*50+1 unknown parameters, we will simplify the model • -----Original model • More importantly, and are also treated as random variable • They are assumed to have a normal distribution with certain M and SD
Final Solution • The final model becomes • The unknown parameters are , variance of , and , and covariance between • We reduced the number of parameters from 101 to 6
Research Question 2 • We also have the gender (1=boy, 2=girl), and social class (1=manual, 0=non-manual), would those two variables affect the performance of the 11-year math grade? • Is gender significant? • Is social class significant?
How to conduct a Multilevel Modeling • You do not need to do it by yourself • You are required to be aware of the existence of multilevel modeling • The benefit is to improve the estimate accuracy • Here is how to do it in SPSS (live demo)
Summary • Ordinary least squares regression is not almighty • When there is a clear structure of hierarchy, multilevel modeling will be useful • Multilevel modeling can also be used to compare the performance of hospitals