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Christopher J Skinner BSc(Eng) MEngSc MIEAust MIEE MACS CPEng

Countervailing influences of: 1. Vehicle-based emissions; and 2. Pervasive mobile wireless ICT on economic sustainability of transport. Christopher J Skinner BSc(Eng) MEngSc MIEAust MIEE MACS CPEng Principal, DISplay Pty Ltd email: cjskinner@acslink.net.au presentation to

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Christopher J Skinner BSc(Eng) MEngSc MIEAust MIEE MACS CPEng

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  1. Countervailing influences of: 1. Vehicle-based emissions; and 2. Pervasive mobile wireless ICT on economic sustainability of transport Christopher J Skinner BSc(Eng) MEngSc MIEAust MIEE MACS CPEng Principal, DISplay Pty Ltd email: cjskinner@acslink.net.au presentation to Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies February 2005 DISplay Pty Ltd Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  2. This is not a research report– more a collection of issues for discussion,and possiblyfor further consideration wherean issue is judged to be significant AC21 - New Technologies for Sustainable Transport

  3. AGENDA • The Transport Task • Issues arising • Energy and Emissions - Sustainability • Aftercasting - Telecommuting • ICT for Transport • Benefit / Cost / Risk analysis • Conclusions Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  4. Moving Information Transport is all about… Telematics Vehicle Systems Surface Transport Infrastructure • ITS Architecture • Standards Moving Goods Moving People Wireless Telecommunications INTEROPERABILITY Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  5. Transport system goals • A transport system should provide a safe, secure and efficient level of service to users • Travel time variability and duration should be minimised • To provide the service resource usage should be minimised • Unnecessary stops and route diversions should be avoided • Safety hazards to people and property should be mitigated • The security of people and freight should be assured at all times Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  6. THE TRANSPORT TASK • AusLink and other sources • Pax intra-urban • Freight task • Charging bases – fuel excise, other taxes, by axle, by distance (VKT), by weight, by axle, by geographic and time-based area charges • Metro task  regional / long haul • Key factors • Intermodality • Tolling & road pricing Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  7. Services are made of… • Actors – or participants (living or system) • Use cases – or scenarios – series of actions taken by actors and the results of the actions • Interfaces between systems and subsystems that provide the services according to the scenarios • Data objects that are replicated, processed or saved • According to agreed standards and protocols • Working with an architecture or framework Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  8. Actors and Use Cases for ITS architecture Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  9. Transport service requirements • The essential requirements for transport services are: • Availability of relevant, timely and accurate information • Data from many sources must be fused • The information must be accessible and usable • Effective query and search capability is essential • Privacy and anonymity must be assured • Many disparate systems must be integrated • … to provide interoperable services Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  10. Interoperability defined Interoperability is defined as: The ability of systems to provide services to and accept services from other systems and to use the services so exchanged to enable them to operate effectively together ISO TC204 document N271 quoted in Intelligent Transport Systems Architecture. Bob McQueen & Judy McQueen. Artech. 1999 Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  11. Road Trade Associations Transport Associations Mining Farming Cargo Agent Rail VIC EXPORT Cargo Associations Processing Wholesaling AUSTRADE Shipping Associations Distribution Retailing Manufacturing Transport Manager Port Land Utilization Regional Terminals Peri-Urban Terminals Cargo Broker Councils Regional Global Warehousing Port Land Tenants & Development Schools Importer Exporter Cross-Docking Media Freight Forwarder Consolidating Activists Community Stakeholders Trade Facilitators Logistics Providers Advocates Unpacking Packing CARGO OWNERS 3PL/4PL Contractors Pricing Policy Storing Price Regulator (ESC) Divided Policy Monitoring Equipment Manager Shareholder (DTF) PORT MANAGER STEVEDORES GOVERNMENT MT Storage Infrastructure Policy (DOI) Upgrades Pre- tripping Environmental Regulator (DSE) Safety Monitoring SHIPPING LINES Environmental Protection Repairs Quarantine (AQIS) Infrastructure Providers Transaction Facilitators Environmental Management Customs Contracts Water Services Contractors Legal Services Sewerage Shipping Agent Land-side Infrastructure Contractors Manifesting Customs Agent Power Bill of Lading Wharves Marine Infrastructure Contractors Maintenance Customs Documentation Roadways Marine Service Providers Security Contractors Rail Sidings Cargo Clearance Installation I.T. Provider Drainage Monitoring Linesmen Pilotage Inspections Invoicing Patrols Bunkering Towage Berths Bank Channels Monitoring Insurer Slipways Maintenance Services Dredging Navigation Aids A challenge for interoperability ! AC21 - New Technologies for Sustainable Transport

  12. Business level (Australian Logistics Council 2002) Interoperability: The ability for partners to coordinate information and processes, especially across an electronic network Technical level (IS0 TC204 document N271 1999) Interoperability: The ability of systems to provide services to and accept services from other systems and to use the services so exchanged to enable them to operate effectively together Software level (Greenfield Software Factories 2004) Interoperability is a measure of how easy it is to compose the software of other systems. This is determined by how well the software exposes its functionality through programmatic interfaces and how much context must be maintained by the other systems to use those interfaces Interoperability defined Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  13. Issues For Transport – Safety & Security • Safety: road accident statistics  vehicle inherent safety; • cost of accidents (fatalities, injuries, property); • driver assistance, ‘Distress Call’ (E-call in EU) • Security: track and trace • people ID – biometrics; • containers – ESCM; • bulk? eg fertiliser; • vehicle ID – eg Electronic Registration Identification [ERI] • Vulnerability: risk assessment; • threat intelligence; • command, control, communications, computers & intelligence [C4I]; • data fusion; • threat assessment eg stationary vehicles Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  14. Issues For Transport – Sustainability • Sustainability: • energy usage – renewable, finite; • emissions – vehicle; • energy generation (eg electricity) • GHG, Nox – air quality  medical costs • Waste • distance travelled due to • congestion, • misrouting, • time delays from • additional distance • other delay • additional fuel consumed Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  15. ISSUES FOR TRANSPORT - EFFICIENCY • Efficiency: • benefits / costs / risks; • costs per unit (km, pax, tonne); • costs per operating hour; other variable costs eg crew; • indirect costs (externalities); • ROI for fixed costs (cost/year) • Benefit ~ cost / hr; benefit (unit * km = UKT) Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  16. Freight transportation is really (product inventory | WIP | materials)while it is in transit AC21 - New Technologies for Sustainable Transport

  17. Energy Consumption • Energy usage is increasing • Non-renewable energy resources are declining • Increasing emissions from energy consumption, including • Noxious emissions [Nox] • Greenhouse gases [GHG] • Transport share of energy consumption, which is f(increasing demand) Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  18. Emissions are a function of… • Emissions = function of • ( VKT, payload weight/volume, engine efficiency, fuel type, other factors…) • where • VKT = vehicle-kilometres travelled • Payload is either • Number of passengers; and/or • Tonnes of goods carried • Volume is either • f(weight, density); or • f(space per passenger, space for baggage, crew, access and egress etc) Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  19. Energy usage for transport – metrics • Measure – joules per transport unit: VKT, pax-km; tonne-km (UKT) • Efficiency – direct transport consumption, unproductive consumption • Additional concept of time taken for travel  • Value of time saved/consumed for journey • Other key performance indicators [KPI] are needed Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  20. Economic Sustainability = f(… • Demand for transport = function of • (land use, • demographics, • pricing, • alternatives modes) • Levels of service to be provided, load factors, route diversity • Magnitude of transport task • Energy consumption (joules/transport unit * Kilometres travelled) • Propulsion efficiency, unused capacity, • Other variable costs = f(journey time, number of vehicles) • Return on investment in fixed assets Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  21. Waste and Unproductive usage • Traffic stops and delay • Contention for access – intersection, rail-crossing • Congestion eg aircraft holding, freight terminal slots, car-park • Non-optimum routeing • Transfer coordination delays • Unused capacity Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  22. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY [ICT]FOR TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS AC21 - New Technologies for Sustainable Transport

  23. Aftercasting – Telecommuting • An Aftercast compares earlier projection to the present actual outcomes • ‘Telematics is a relatively new area which develops new information technologies. It is anticipated to affect travel patterns and mobility partly through substitution of telecommunications for travel. Travel is expected to be replaced, or drastically reduced, mainly by telecommuting’ (Bovy 1990) p267 • Bovy reported on predictions that corporate regional centres would be set up to reduce the need for travel • Bovy also reports a Swiss study which projected reductions in commuter traffic due to teleworking of 8 to 15 percent over the period to 2025 • (Route Choice: Wayfinding in Transport NetworksP.H.L Bovy and E. Stern. Kluwer Academic Publishers. 1990 Section 7.2.2 Telematics) Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  24. Qualifications on the forecast • Telecommuting – assumed fixed places of work; fixed comms network • did NOT foresee mobility, wireless connectivity or ubiquitous networks including wireless and mobility, and • did NOT comprehend the motivational aspects of work location and accessibility • Telematics – was not originally associated exclusively with vehicle-based systems Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  25. Issues for Wireless ICT • 4C’s for wireless ICT • capacity, • coverage, • compatibility, • convenience => pervasive communications • Location-based services • Services-oriented architecture based on Web Services technology and standards • Security & privacy • Number of mobile phones > number of road vehicles Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  26. Implications for Transport & Logistics • The impact of time use and energy use for transport and communications will have an increasing impact on land use • Predictions should allow for disruptive changes in technologies plus the resulting innovation that flows from these break-throughs • Mobility will be part of everything we do • Workplace will not be defined by static physical domains • Energy economy  costs of energy plus externalities will be part of pricing Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  27. ICT Measurement Capabilities • Position, location, speed, position and intended movement [PIM] (track), route, origin, destination • Dynamic behaviour • Speed – mean; instantaneous • Route choices – lanes, tracks, links, waypoints, link speeds, link congestion • State of vehicle • Operator identity • load, wheel/axle load, number of pax • fuel state / range • Emissions – instantaneous, cumulative • <doors open> • Payload – condition (eg temperature), integrity (eg seal), manifest Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  28. Visual Intercommunication Model Distraction Location DRIVER Adjacent Objects Visibility Decision-making Association Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  29. Communications Evolution • Visual: signals  VMS  Nav Systems  eg VICS (Japan) • Visual stimuli – need drivers’ gaze & attention • Variable / dynamic message signs – clear & concise but brief • Navigation systems with external real-time information • Vehicle Information & Communications System (~10m units / 75m veh) • Audio: radio  voicemail  SMS  WAP  multimedia mail • Potential distraction for driver – not well quantified / controlled • Audio-visual combinations • eg windscreen projection; • Navigation systems guidance • Haptic (physical interaction) • Direct to/from vehicle rather than involving driver • one-way, interactive Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  30. Progression in Wireless Communication media • Acoustic – audible, ultrasonic • Radio frequencies [RF]: • line-of-sight [LOS] (eg UHF, DSRC, radar), satellite • Beyond line-of-sight (eg HF, ad-hoc networks) • Optical: visible, infra-red • flag  lights  VMS/DMS  graphics  GUI • Propagation mechanism • broadcast, multicast (especially publish/subscribe) • station-to-station, person-to-person • Simplex, duplex, half-duplex Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  31. Technologies in Wireless Communications • Broadcast radio: AM, FM, digital, Highway Advisory Radio • Multiplexing: TDM, FDM, CDM, OFDM • Technology generation for cellular phone service • Currently 2G (GSM, CDMA)  2.5G (GPRS)  3G, I-mode ?? • Increased data-capacity especially for multimedia content • Increasing range of services available eg email, web, subscription • Range of services carried eg broadband, multimedia • Interoperability • ACA call for submissions on private band management • DSRC eg ETC • CALM Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  32. Communications service quality • Quality of Service [QoS]: capacity, channels, coverage, latency, reliability, error rates, cost • Security – privacy, confidentiality, integrity • Encryption standards, keys, anti-tamper • Capacity • Bandwidth; Number of channels, spacing, isolation • Diversity: Channel frequency separation; Polarisation; Directionality • Error detection and correction, overhead for network management • Shielding, location of antennae on vehicle • Signal to noise|interference ratio • Interference: sources, rejection, electromagnetic compatibility [EMC] • Active antennae eg beam and null-steering, Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  33. System Architecture for ITS in Japan- Subsystem Interconnect Diagram (http://www.iijnet.or.jp/vertis/) Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  34. Wireless communications linkages • Fixed infrastructure  driver/operator • Fixed infrastructure  vehicle control system • Mobile node  vehicle control system, vehicle router (ad-hoc networks) • Networks  fixed, mobile (vehicle, operator, other), other networks Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  35. Wireless ICT is already pervasive • Range and capacity of services is still increasing • Coverage of cellular voice and data services is also increasing • Transport and Logistics is exploiting ICT capabilities rapidly, but in a non-optimum manner: • Integration is piecemeal and ad-hoc • The range of applications is not yet mature Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  36. Location Interference Distraction External source DRIVER Wireless communication Adjacent Objects Visibility Control system Future link Association VEHICLE Human in the loop • Recognise stimulus • Respond to stimulus • React to implications of stimulus • Resume previous activity Operator behaviour model Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  37. Identify Actors • Actor classes • Vehicle(s): (prime) movers, trailers, containers • Payload(s): goods, passengers, crew • Operators • Third parties • Technologies for identification • Biometrics • Ticket / card • Phone / PDA Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  38. Location of Actors - issues • Accuracy of location measurement/estimate • Ambiguity of location • Motion: current, intended • Timeliness / latency of location report Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  39. Fleet efficiency – issues • Factors for efficiency of fleet operation • Load factor eg back-loading • Optimised track • Minimised stops, delays • Track and trace Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  40. Track and trace • Tracking • In (near) real time • Communications network access is needed • Presentation critical for effective use • Tracing • Post facto • Archival • Evidentiary Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  41. Fleet for all… heretical concept? • All motorised vehicles in one or more fleets (3rd party eg auto clubs) • Vehicle identity, location, operator, itinerary, payload, hazards, other state • Heretical concept perhaps? • Advantages: • Safety • security • efficiency • Disadvantages: • Privacy • Cost • liabilities Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  42. Time Utility of Travel • Benefit / time expended • Benefit = function of( • (distance * load), • time saved, • added utility (eg reading, TV, email, www) • Example: concrete-mixer trucks use transit time to mix load Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  43. Passenger travel benefits • Ratio (number of pax / cost of operation • Self-drive  Taxi / chauffeur  High occupancy vehicle [HOV] • Bus / tram /transitway  Train / ferry  Plane • Cost of operation =f(operator & crew, consumables, liabilities… • Opportunity cost of journey and waiting time – door-to-door [D2D] Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  44. Tradeoff for personal travel with ICT services Opportunity cost of travel without ICT Opportunity cost of travel with ICT TRAVEL COST  Travel fare cost TRAVEL TIME – DOOR-TO-DOOR [D2D]  Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  45. Transport safety & security • Safety in transport is enhanced by ICT in many ways: • … • Security in transport is affected by ICT in many ways – good and bad • Physical assets • People – crew, passengers, travellers, third parties • Information needs – privacy, access, accuracy Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  46. Case study 1: Universal distress call • Technology exists now so why can’t we… • Provide individual distress calls for Australia • real-time, two-way • 100% coverage • Affordable • Infrastructure needs • Jurisdictions – staffing; liabilities Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  47. Case study 2: Parking assistance • P-signs + number of vacancies + reservations + payment by phone / DSRC / contact less smartcard • Car sharing? Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  48. Traveller / operator information service • Objectives – traveller, operator • Sources of data – NTIS • Data fusion – algorithms, technologies • Dissemination: • Push, pull, publish/subscribe • Visual, audio, system, haptic Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  49. Risk management for transport • What (risk item [RI]) could go wrong? • If the RI does go wrong, what will be the cost C to rectify? • What is the probability P that the RI will occur (go wrong)? • What can be done to reduce the aggregate value V of all risk items (V = f(C,P))? Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

  50. Summary – benefits, costs and risks • Costs ~ VKT * load/vehicle + non-variable costs  • Cost / pax-km OR Cost / tonne-km • Emissions cost ~ f(VKT) • Benefits: • Travel-time D2D  time-utility of travel • Safety, security, comfort, use of travel time • Risks Chris Skinner – Seminar, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies

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