Population Dynamics, Components & Trends

1. Population Dynamics, Components & Trends N5 Population Unit

2. Success Criteria • Know that Population is Dynamic (changing) • Know the Components of Population Change • Know and understand the key terms that are used to describe population change and trends. • Understand that fertility is a key component of population change. • Understand that mortality is a key component of population change.

3. Population is constantly changing… http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

4. Population (Millions) Population Change • World Population is increasing. • COMPOSITE LINE GRAPH – Shows Developing Countries (ELDCs), Developed Countries (EMDCs) and the overall picture. • World Population has been increasing since the end of the Black Death around 1400.

5. + IMMIGRANTS TOTAL POPULATION Migration Change Component Natural Change Component EMMIGRANTS DEATHS - - Components of Population Change + BIRTHS This can apply to: - A Continent - The EU - A Country - A Region - A City

6. POPULATION – KEY TERMS These terms are used to explain demographic (population) trends.

7. Crude Birth Rate (CBR) • This figure indicates the number of people per thousand head of population born in any given year. • Since this is a very basic measure it is termed ‘crude’. • Birth rates are much higher in ELDCs than in EMDCs. • Ethiopia has a birth rate of 46 per thousand. • The UK has a birth rate of 11 per thousand,

8. Crude Death Rate or Crude Mortality Rate (CDR) • This indicates the number of people per thousand of population who die in any given year. • This is also a very basic measure hence the term ‘crude’. • Death rates are also higher in ELDCs than in EMDCs. • Ethiopia has a death rate of 18 per thousand. • The UK has a death rate of 10 per thousand

9. Natural Growth Rate or Natural Increase Rate • This is the number (per thousand head of the population) by which the population is increasing each year. • The natural growth rate is calculated by subtracting death rates from birth rates. • If the death rate is higher than the birth rate, a negative natural growth occurs (effectively a natural decrease). • Natural growth rates are higher in ELDCs than in EMDCs. • Ethiopia has a Natural Increase Rate of 28 per thousand (i.e. 46 – 18). • The UK has a Natural Increase Rate of 1 per thousand (i.e. 11 – 10).

10. Fertility Ratio • The fertility ratio is calculated by dividing the number of children under 3 by the number of women between the ages of 15 and 44 years (the childbearing years). • Fertility ratios are useful for international comparisons. • An EMDC will have a low fertility ratio (1.7 for example). • An ELDC will have a high fertility ratio (6.1 for example)

11. Average Life Expectancy • This is the figure which indicates the average number of years a person can expect to live in any given country. • Life expectancy figures are higher in EMDCs than in ELDCs. • Ethiopia has a life expectancy of 47 years. • The UK has a life expectancy of 77.

12. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) • This indicates the number of deaths of infants under one year of age per thousand live births in any given year. • Infant mortality rates are much higher in ELDCs than they are in EMDCs. • Ethiopia has an IMR of 120. • The UK has an IMR of 6.2.

13. Population Key Terms

14. Population Key Terms *Crude birth rate is a ‘crude’ measure as it doesn’t allow for the age and sex of the population. An alternative is: • General Fertility Rate – number of live births per 1000 women aged 15 – 44 in a year.

15. Differential Mortality • http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7584450.stm • http://news.stv.tv/scotland/165914-life-expectancy-variations-between-rich-and-poor-revealed/ • This is where mortality rates differ in the same geographical area eg. different parts of Glasgow.

16. FERTILITY • Fertility is a critical part of population change. • People don’t have much choice about their death – they have more choice about the number of children they have! • The reasons behind differences in Fertility and Birth Rates are a combination of complex political, economic, social, religious and demographic factors… • …but you need to learn them along with examples of countries and places…

17. Look at the top 5 countries with highest birth rates and the bottom 5 countries with lowest birth rates… https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2054rank.html

18. Pension Policy • Children were traditionally part of the workforce, earning money to bring into the family. • More importantly in many countries today they are seen as a sort of PENSION for parents as they grow older, especially in countries where there is little provision for the elderly. • Example: In Ethiopia, the State Pension System only covers the Civil Service, the Military and the Police.

19. Men seeing having children as a status symbol and indicator of virility. • Having many children to continue on the family name. • Example: Many parts of Africa, Asia and Middle East. Status Symbol

20. ‘How much does a baby Cost?!’ • Estimates of £85 000 - £170 000 to raise a child to 18 (figures from USA). • Having many children is seen as an Economic and Social burden, especially in EMDCs. • Consumer pressures such as holidays and cars – people would rather spend money on other things. • Women and careers – many women delay starting their families until they establish their careers. • Decline in marriage and the traditional family set-up, increase in divorce and co-habitation – all have reduced fertility rates.

21. Islam, Catholicism and Mormonism are faiths associated with higher fertility. • Encourage youthful marriages and an early start to childbearing. • Opposed to abortion and provision of contraception. • But…As living standards and urbanisation improves, women become better educated and fertility rates decline regardless of religion. Religion

22. Education • Especially of women! • Changes the aspirations of women and what they want for their families. • Become more aware of their rights as women. • Educated in the types and availability of contraception as well as options open to them if they do get pregnant. • Example of Zimbabwe. Women with no education have on average 7 children, women with primary school education – 6 children; women with secondary/higher education – less than 4 children.

23. Government Policy • Pro-Natalist Policies – places like France and Germany after WW1 to compensate for so many deaths as well as for military purposes. Hitler’s Nazi Germany – taxed unmarried couples, banned contraceptives, large family allowance payments. • Anti-Natalist Policies – Singapore in 1970s – put costs up in hospitals for each birth after your first, limited housing allocation for large families. China’s One Child Policy.

24. Other Demographic Factors • Decline in Infant Mortality – women no longer feel they have to have many children to ensure that some survive into adulthood.

25. ITALY CASE STUDY • Despite being a Catholic Country, Italy has one of the lowest birth rates in the World (8 births per 1000). • Use of Contraception is against religious beliefs yet birth rate remains low suggesting people are turning away from the Vatican teachings. • The Government has had to respond with a Pro-Natalist policy. • Families are paid a bonus of €500 on the birth of their second and subsequent children. • The exception to this trend is in the more traditional, rural Southern part of Italy where people still adhere to religious teachings. Here birth rates have remained high.

26. Mortality • In Developed Countries the majority of deaths (80%) occur amongst the oldest age groups (65+). • This age group accounts for only 25% of deaths in Developing Countries. • In Developing Countries the majority of deaths occur in lower age groups particularly young children.

27. In the developed world, lower age groups account for a very small proportion of deaths (under 10%). • The number of deaths in the age group 16-64 is also much higher in Developing Countries than in Developed Countries.

28. Reasons • Differences in life expectancy and infant mortality rates as a result of different living standards. • Poorer quality of health and hygiene care available to citizens. • Poor quality diet and food supply, often leading to malnutrition and, in extreme cases, famine.

29. Reasons • Wide differences in levels of economic development with lack of investment in housing, health and general infrastructure. • Low standard of education due to lack of schools, colleges and teaching staff. • Poor housing standards with shanty towns common to most cities. • Prevalence of infectious diseases due to poor sanitation, lack of medical drugs and healthcare.

30. Reasons • Developed Countries enjoy much higher levels of provision in all of these areas than Developing Countries. • As a result, people in younger age groups are less susceptible to death.

31. Can I…? Do I…? • Know that Population is Dynamic (changing) • Know the Components of Population Change • Know and understand the key terms that are used to describe population change and trends. • Understand that fertility is a key component of population change. # • Understand that mortality is a key component of population change.